Global Economy
Investors expect Europe to fall into recession in the next 12 months
By Finfacts Team
Sep 14, 2011 - 7:17 AM

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Investors expect Europe to fall into recession in the next 12 months, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for September.

Fifty-five per cent of European fund managers now see the region suffering two quarters of negative real GDP growth over the next year, according to the survey completed between September 1 and September 8. This compares with only 14% expecting the same fate as recently as July.

Europe's sovereign and banking challenges dominate risks identified by global asset allocators. Sixty-eight per cent of survey respondents now view the Eurozone debt crisis as the largest of these risks, up from 43% in June and 60% in August. Sentiment towards European banks is at its lowest since the survey began asking about it in January 2003.

These negative views of Europe are reflected in investors' stance on Eurozone equities. While the weaker growth outlook is reflected in global fund managers' first net underweight (5%) on equities in over two years, a net 38% are now underweight European stocks - up from a net 15% last month.

While other regions also suffered, sentiment towards the U.S. improved somewhat. Only a net 9% of U.S. fund managers now expect the economy to weaken in the next year. Global investors also restored an overweight position in U.S. equities.

"The survey shows that sentiment on Europe is now so negative that contagion risk to the rest of the world has risen significantly," said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. "The current very extreme levels of risk aversion indicate that it is time to look for contrarian trades," said Michael Hartnett, chief Global Equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

Risk aversion soars: As measured by the ML Risk & Liquidity Composite Indicator, investors' aversion to risk has soared to levels last seen in March 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis. A net 45% of investors are taking lower risk than normal relative to their benchmarks, up nearly 20%age points from August.

Cash holdings remain notably high at an average 4.9% of portfolios, with more than one-third of investors overweight cash.

Reduced risk appetite is also evident in hedge funds' exposures. The sector has cut its net long position to 19%, down from 33% a month earlier. Investors' assessment of market liquidity has also turned to a net negative.

Sentiment towards bonds has improved as investors have turned negative on equities. Global asset allocators have halved their underweight in the asset class in just two months - from a net 45% in July to a net 21% now. Other asset classes also benefited from a shift out of equities. Most notably, the global underweight in real estate halved month-on-month, to a net 7%.

The growth slowdown has altered investors' view of oil. A net 14% of respondents view the commodity as overvalued, up from a net zero% in August.

Within equities, the story is not one of a simple rotation into defensive sectors. While consumer staples, pharmaceuticals and utilities all benefited from the exodus from banks - to a net 47% underweight - so did industrial and technology shares.

Japan, China take Eurozone knock-on: As Europe's outlook has weakened, investors have lost confidence in other regions too. Views of the Japanese economy have soured significantly, for example. A net 42% of Japanese fund managers expect it to strengthen in the next year, down from a net 75% a month earlier. A net zero% expects Japanese corporate earnings to improve in the period, compared to a net 58% in August.

Similarly, a net 30% of regional fund managers expect the Chinese economy to weaken over the next 12 months. August's figure was a net 11%.

This is reflected in a sharp decline in asset allocators' enthusiasm for Chinese equities. Having ranked as their net most preferred BRIC stock market for the previous three months, China plunged almost 30%age points on this measure in September. It now has the same net 18% reading as Russia.

Fiscal policy finds focus: With inflation fears having largely receded, investors have turned their focus to fiscal policy. A net 23% view it as too restrictive for the current phase of the business cycle, compared to the net 19% who viewed it as too stimulative just two months earlier.

Survey of Fund Managers

An overall total 286 panelists with US$831bn of assets under management participated in the survey from 1 September to 8 September. A total of 203 fund managers, managing a total of US$648bn, participated in the global survey. A total of 163 managers, managing US$414bn, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Research with the help of market research company TNS.

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