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News : Irish Economy Last Updated: Feb 21, 2015 - 3:02 AM

Irish Economy 2015: January Live Register + schemes at 446,000 - broad jobless rate at 21%
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
Feb 4, 2015 - 12:32 PM

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Irish Economy 2015: The CSO reported today that on a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register total recorded a monthly decrease of 3,600 (-1.0%) in January 2015, reducing the seasonally adjusted total to 360,200. Adding the 86,027 in publicly funded activation schemes gives a total of 446,000 that results in a broad jobless rate of 21%.

The broad jobless rate has been used in the US since 1994 and is more useful than the International Labour Organisation standard which defines employment as paid work of at least one hour per week.

In the US, the broad rate includes part-timers seeking full-time work and discouraged workers who have given up looking for work. The broad jobless rate was at 11.3% in January compared with the standard rate at 5.7%

Finfacts has two ways of arriving at the Irish broad rate a) as above, adding LR and activation schemes figures 2) using the standardised rate as detailed below and adding both the number of part-timers looking for full-time work and activation numbers. For further detail, see here:

Facts do not always change minds - can even entrench misinformed

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Irish Boom & Bust: Could conventional wisdom be fooled again?

The CSO said today that standardised unemployment rate (SUR) in January 2015 was 10.5%, down from 10.6% in December 2014.  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the most recent Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) was 11.1% in the third quarter of 2014.

On a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register total recorded a monthly decrease of 3,600 (-1.0%) in January 2015, reducing the seasonally adjusted total to 360,200.

In unadjusted terms there were 358,672 people signing on the Live Register in January 2015.  This represents an annual decrease of 40,958 (-10.2%).

Other features include:

  • On a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register showed a monthly decrease of 2,300 (-1.0%) males in January 2015, while females decreased by 1,300 (-0.9%) over the same period.
  • The number of male claimants decreased by 30,045 (-12.1%) to 218,678 in the year to January 2015, while female claimants decreased by 10,913 (-7.2%) to 139,994. This compares with a decrease of 24,904 (-9.1%) to 248,723 for males, while female claimants showed a decrease of 4,862 (-3.1%) to 150,907 in the year to January 2014.

The CSO said that the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment.  It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseeker’s Benefit (JB) or Jobseeker’s Allowance (JA).  Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest estimated number of persons unemployed as of the third quarter of 2014 was 245,500.

Live Register duration of continuous registration: The number of long term claimants (1 year or more) on the Live Register in January 2015 was 164,844.  The number of male long term claimants decreased by 15,840 (-12.8%) in the year to January 2015, while females decreased by 642 (-1.1%), giving an overall annual decrease of 16,482 (-9.1%) in the number of long term claimants.

In January 2015, 54.0% (193,828) of all claimants on the Live Register were short term claimants.  The comparable figure for January 2014 was 54.6% (218,304).  The annual fall of 24,476 (-11.2%) in the number of short term claimants consisted of a decrease of 14,205 (-11.4%) in the number of male short term claimants and a decrease of 10,271 (-11.0%) in female short term claimants.

Live Register casual and part-time workers: There were 72,085 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2015, which represents 20.1% of the total Live Register.  This compares with 20.3% one year earlier when there were 80,958 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register.  In the year to January 2015 the number of casual and part-time workers decreased by 8,873 (-11.0%), with the number of males decreasing by 5,157 (-11.8%) and the number of females decreasing by 3,716 (-10.0%).

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