Ryanair today revised its full year traffic guidance up from 89m to just over 90m customers, and raised its full year profit after-tax forecast from its previous range of €750m to €770m, to a new range of €810m to €830m. The airline said that the final full year profit will still be heavily reliant on close in bookings and yields in Q4 (Jan – Mar 15) over which it presently has very little visibility.
Ryanair said November traffic grew by 22% to 6.35m customers in November, while our load factor rose by 7% points to 88%, thanks to our lower fares, our stronger forward booking strategy and the continuing success of our “Always Getting Better” customer programme, which delivered better than expected load factors in the first month of our significantly expanded winter schedule. Despite increasing November seat capacity by 13% (over Nov 13) and opening a large number of new city pair routes designed to appeal to business traffic, Ryanair’s November load factor rose by 7% points from 81% in 2013 to 88% in 2014.
Ryanair noted that it had materially exceeded its first month load factor targets across a significant number of city pair markets where it is offering business type frequencies in direct competition to longer established, higher fare airlines as the following examples illustrate:
From Dublin on 3 new routes to Brussels (3 daily), Glasgow (3) and Cologne (1) in competition with Aer Lingus, the first month load factor was 80%.
- From Warsaw (Modlin) to Gdansk (2 daily) and Wroclaw (2) in competition with LOT, the first month load factor was 82%.
- From London Stansted to Glasgow (3 daily), Edinburgh (3), Lisbon (3), Cologne (2) and Athens in competition with easyJet, the first month load factor was 88%.
- From Lisbon to London (3 daily), Hamburg (1), Rome (1) and Milan (1) in competition with TAP and others, the first month load factor was 90%.
Davy's Stephen Furlong said: "We continue to rate Ryanair ‘Outperform’ as it incrementally takes profitable market share and generates positive free cash flow and it is clear that its business model improvements are working."
Ryanair's share price is up 7.45% Thursday to €9.37.