Irish Budget 2015: After 3 months of lobbying by vested interests and ministerial leaks, modest cuts in income taxes are expected today when the finance and public expenditure ministers outline tax and spending measures. In addition, officials have leaked that the Double Irish corporation tax dodge will be axed in 2020.  Meanwhile after the huge anti-water protest in Dublin last Saturday, pensioners will get a €100 gift to defray the cost of water.

The forecast tax revenue outturn for 2014 of €41bn is based on end-September Exchequer data. This compares with a 2014 target of €40bn and together with other revenues of €5bn gives a total of €46bn; total spending amounts to €54bn giving a deficit of €8bn heading into 2015, prior to budget changes.

The Department of Finance's 'Estimates of Receipts and Expenditure for year ending 31 December 2015' [pdf] report  published last Friday shows that the deficit would be 2.4% of GDP if today's budget was neutral in respect of the net changes in taxes and spending measures. However it's expected that the budget measures will raise the deficit to in the range 2.7-2.8% providing for a net addition of about €600m in borrowing .

Michael Noonan, finance minister, will begin his speech in the Dáil at 2.30 pm

Brendan Howlin, spending minister, will speak at 3.10 pm approx.

1. Officials have leaked the news that every pensioner over 70 will get a €100 gift to cover the new water charge - - a lot more pensioners vote than young people and a net 124,000 Irish nationals, mainly young people, emigrated in 2009-2014;
2. More than 40% of Irish owner-occupied houses have no mortgage and last week's Central Bank measures on mortgage deposits will also hit young people;
3. The top income tax rate will be cut by 1% to 40% and there will be a clawback on the benefit for high earners;
4. The high marginal tax rate will rise from €32,800 to €33,000;
5. The threshold for paying the USC (universal social charge) will be raised above €10,036;
6. Tax reliefs for young farmers including incentives to lease land for longer periods, as well as measures to encourage older farmers pass on their properties to younger generations;
7. It's unclear what will happen the pension levies on private pensions as Noonan introduced a new one last year giving him the opportunity to claim credit for abolishing the old one;
8. The Health budget will include this year's overspend of €500m;
9. The Justice capital budget will be increased by more than 60% the hiring of more gardaí will also be provided for;
10. An investment scheme to promote social housing and boost construction will be announced;
11. The Double Irish tax dodge will be axed by 2020 for existing beneficiaries and new incentive measures for foreign investment will be announced - however the long timescale may not be acceptable to the European Commission or proposals for UK-style 'patent box' measures, which are currently being reviewed in Brussels.

Irish Budget 2015 Page