See Search Box
lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be
the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that
developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.
Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and
you are in its business news section.
Global economic growth is likely to remain at muted levels in most of the big world economies in coming months, according to leading indicators published Monday by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The Wall Street Journal says that the measure of future economic activity of the Paris-based think-tank for 34 mainly developed countries, suggests growth in most developed economies will remain around current rates, with large developing economies making a smaller contribution to global economic growth than they did in the years following the onset of the financial crisis of 2008. As a result of that combination, global growth is unlikely to pick up significantly this year.
[After several years of false starts, the latest blow to hopes of a pickup in global growth appears to have come from a series of armed conflicts ranging from Syria and Iraq to Ukraine. Citing those developments, International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said the body is preparing to cut its growth forecast, having already done so as recently as July. "Growth is fragile as geopolitical risks are many," Ms. Lagarde said in an interview with French newspaper Les Echos.]
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to signal a stable growth momentum in most major economies.
The CLIs for the OECD area as a whole as well as for the United States, Canada and United Kingdom continue to point to stable growth momentum. The CLI for Japan continues to indicate an interruption in growth momentum though this may be related to one-off factors.
In Germany the CLI continues to point to slowing momentum, whereas in Italy the CLI exhibits tentative signs of a loss of growth momentum. In the Euro Area as a whole and in France, the CLIs remain stable.
In India growth continues to gain momentum while in China and Russia CLIs point to stabilisation of growth momentum. The CLI for Brazil suggests a tentative upward change in momentum.
The Bank of France Monday said French output will likely rise by just 0.2% this quarter, having been flat in the first six months of the year.
An OECD Composite Leading Indicator, as the name suggests, is constructed from a small number of economic time series that have similar cyclical fluctuations to those of the business cycle, and moreover have a tendency to turn earlier than the business cycle. The business cycle is typically represented by movements in GDP around its long term trend. The OECD CLIs are composite indicators with components that:
measure early stages of production;
respond rapidly to changes in economic activity;
are sensitive to expectations of future activity or
are control variables that measure policy stance.
A large set of component series, selected from a wide range of economic indicators, are used in constructing CLIs (around 200 series are used in total, about 5-10 for each country). CLIs are calculated for 33 OECD countries, 6 non-member economies and 8 zones. They are calculated in three forms: amplitude adjusted, trend-restored, and year-on year growth rate. These are comparable, respectively, with the de-trended reference series, the original reference series and the year-on-year growth rate of the reference series. The press release focuses on the amplitude adjusted form of the CLI, and includes the major countries and zones.
The OECD-Total covers the following 33 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.
The G7 area covers Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States.
TheEuro Area(only Euro area countries that are members of OECD) covers the following 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Spain.
TheMajor Five Asia area covers China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.