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News : Irish Economy Last Updated: Aug 27, 2014 - 10:38 PM


Irish Economy: Job numbers & workforce fell in H1 2014; Finfacts proved right
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
Aug 26, 2014 - 1:06 PM

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Irish Economy: The number of job numbers fell in the first half of 2014 by 8,000 from 1.910m in December 2013 to 1.902m in June 2014 according to the Central Statistics Office today -- having for long sailed against the winds of conventional wisdom, we can say that Finfacts has been proved right about jobs data that had exaggerated jobs data in the second half of 2013. The overall workforce numbers also contracted.

Remember earlier this year when Enda Kenny, taoiseach, and ministers such as Richard Bruton were crowing about 5,000 jobs being created each month even though the CSO did warn that some of the sectoral totals were not reliable?

We said last March:

There is a simple way of looking at the jobs situation in 2013 by focusing on the big sectors of the economy: IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland have said that their client companies added 12,000 net jobs in the year. Coupled with tourist activity related jobs, that amounts to 29,000. Public sector employment fell while 27,000 additional farmers/farm workers in 2013 is fairytale economics."

Finfacts March 2014: Irish Economy 2014: Did Ireland add 61,000 jobs in 2013?

It simply was not credible that in the real world new jobs would be added at the high rate of 5,000 per month in 2013 from a base of stagnation in 2012. So the exaggerated 2013 data deflates the performance in 2014 while the overall workforce falls reflecting factors such as emigration.

Finfacts Analysis: Q1 2011-Q2 2014: Irish employee jobs up 21,000; 130,000 part-timers seeking full-time work

The CSO said today in its Quarterly National Household Survey that the total labour force (including the unemployed) shrank while there was an annual increase in employment of 1.7% or 31,600 in the year to the second quarter of 2014, bringing total employment to 1,901,600. This compares with an annual increase in employment of 2.3% in the previous quarter and an increase of 1.8% in the year to Q2 2013.

The total number of persons in the labour force in the second quarter of 2014 was 2,156,100, representing a fall of 14,500 (-0.7%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force increase of 11,500 (+0.5%) in Q2 2013. The number of persons not in the labour force in Q2 2014 was 1,437,700, an increase of 22,100 (+1.6%) over the year.

The increase in total employment of 31,600 in the year to Q2 2014 was represented by a rise in full-time employment of 33,500 (+2.4%) and a decrease in part-time employment of 1,900 (-0.4%).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment rose by 4,300 (+0.2%) over the previous quarter. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 1,200 (+0.1%) in Q1 2014, an increase of 9,800 (+0.5%) in Q4 2013, an increase of 18,200 (+1.0%) in Q3 2013 and an increase of 14,400 (+0.8%) in Q2 2013.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 12.0% to 11.5% over the quarter while the number of persons unemployed fell by 12,700.

Unemployment fell by 46,200 (-15.4%) in the year to Q2 2014 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 254,500 - -  the eighth quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis.

The long-term unemployment rate fell from 8.1% to 6.8% over the year to Q2 2014. Long-term unemployment accounted for 57.6% of total unemployment in Q2 2014 compared with 58.2% a year earlier and 61.8% in the second quarter of 2012.

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