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News : EU Economy Last Updated: Aug 27, 2014 - 10:38 PM


Eurozone inflation "more or less" at a trough
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
Aug 15, 2014 - 8:38 AM

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On Thursday Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, confirmed a flash estimate at the end of last month that annual inflation had fallen to 0.4% and also on Thursday the ECB published the results of its quarterly survey of professional forecasters, which showed that "a number of respondents argued that the trough of inflation has more or less been reached."

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2014 is published in the latest monthly bulletin [pdf] and its was conducted between 17 and 24 July 2014, with 59 responses received.

The economists expect inflation to be on an upward sloping path over the next few years as a result of the recovery in real economic activity and an unwinding of the downward impact of previous oil, food and exchange rate developments. In addition, stable inflation expectations and wage growth, although moderate, are considered to provide a floor to inflation.

The bulletin says that the expected path of inflation over the period 2014-16 indicates a moderate pick-up from the current low levels. Compared with the previous round, inflation expectations for 2014 and 2015 were revised downwards slightly to 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively, but were unchanged at 1.5% for 2016. Long-term inflation expectations edged up by 0.02 percentage point to stand at 1.86%.

Growth expectations were revised downwards slightly for 2014, but remained unchanged for 2015 and 2016, implying a gradual strengthening of real GDP growth. Unemployment expectations were revised downwards across all horizons.

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