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News : Irish Economy Last Updated: Jul 11, 2014 - 8:52 AM

Official Irish services index fell in May; PMI survey level was at highest since 2007
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
Jul 10, 2014 - 7:18 AM

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The CSO has reported that the seasonally adjusted monthly Irish services value index fell by 1.3% in May 2014 when compared with the previous month while, in the year to May 2014, there was an increase of 3.3%. This contrasts with the purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago - - in effect reflecting hunches rather than data - - with activity back to early 2007 levels.

The CSO index value is up 10.9% since 2010.

This was our PMI report for a month where activity fell and was up only 3.3% in 12 months:

Irish services PMI eases from "white-hot" growth rate; Official data show dip in 12-months to March

The CSO says that on a monthly basis, Administrative and Support Service Activities (+3.1%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+0.5%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+0.5%) increased when compared with April 2014. Transportation and Storage (-4.5%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-4.0%), Other Service Activities (-3.3%) and Information and Communication (-2.6%) fell in the month to May 2014.

On an annual basis, Information and Communication (+12.4%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+6.1%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+3.1%) and Administrative and Support Service Activities (+0.8%) increased when compared with May 2013. Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (-8.9%), Other Service Activities (-3.9%) and Transportation and Storage (-1.5%) showed decreases in the same period. 

It's key to understand in respect of the biggest services "exporters" that their real exports are only a fraction of what they report - - Google, Microsoft and Facebook book big chunks of their global revenues in Ireland (40%+, 25% and 50%)  and the revenues are rising at double-digit rates.

These are fake tax avoidance related exports that reflect activities in many countries.

Finfacts: Irish Economy: Ireland's ephemeral services export boom

The PMI survey, which includes financial firms, has a panel of 450 and no response rate is published.

The CSO sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises and it excludes financial firms. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

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