In June the non-seasonally adjusted numbers on
the Live Register were at 398,800, up about 10,000 from May while the CSO's
total for individuals on publicly funded activation programs was at 76,400 in
May, down about 10,000 from the previous month. So assuming a similar level on
activation programs in June plus the numbers on the Live Register results in a
total of 475,000 or 22% of the workforce in receipt of work-related payments
from public funds.
The number participating in activation programs
as per the chart above are unemployed people who are
counted as either employed or in education.
In May with the end of the education year,
education allowances for unemployed people ended and they then signed back on
the Live Register.
CSO data showed today that in
the 12 months to June, there was a fall of 36,544 in Live Register numbers
reflecting people getting jobs, allowances expiring or emigration.
The seasonally-adjusted total showed a fall of
4,400 in the month and the standardised unemployment rate (SUR) in June 2014 was
11.6%, down from 11.7% in May 2014.
There were 76,561 casual and part-time workers on
the Live Register in June 2014, which represents 19.2% of the total Live
The number of long term claimants on the Live
Register in June 2014 was 188,858. The number of male long term claimants
decreased by 10,516 (-7.7%) in the year to June 2014, while females increased by
1,866 (+3.1%), giving an overall annual decrease of 8,650 (-4.4%) in the number
of long term claimants.
Of the 67,350 non-Irish nationals, the
largest constituent group on the Live Register was nationals from the EU15 to
EU28 States (36,772), followed by the UK (15,034).
economist at Davy, commented - - "Today’s Live
Register release shows the unemployment rate down to 11.6% in June from 11.7% in
May. The May number was also revised down from 11.8%. Over the month, the
numbers on the Live Resister fell 4,400 to 386,200, the lowest level since April
2009. Over the year to June, 36,544 claimants have left the Live Register, an
Underlying the headline numbers, the number of long-term claimants (one-year+)
stood at 188,858 in June, representing 47.4% of total claimants. Encouragingly,
this number continues to fall at a decent pace, down 8,650 (-4.4%) over the
year. However, those on the Register for less than a year have been re-joining
the workforce at a faster rate. Short-term claimants, at 209,955, were down
27,894 (-11.7%) in the year to May. As we have noted in the past, this
highlights the still considerable slack in the Irish labour market at present.
But long-term unemployment still a major issue:
The half-yearly statistics released today show that the number of what could be
termed the ‘ultra-long-term’ unemployed has continued to grow (Figure 2). The
breakdown shows that many claimants spend a very short period on the Live
Register – one-third spent three months or less in H1 2014, while 41% spent less
than six months. These short-term flows in and out of the Register are
particularly prevalent during the summer months, illustrated by the spike in
numbers each year in Figure 1.
However, 99,972 claimants were on the Live Register for three years or more in
H1 2014, a 3.7% rise on H1 2013. This accounts for 26% of the total Live
Register and 56% of long-term unemployed. This is the only category of
unemployed that has continued to rise over the year; however, we suspect that
most of those in the two to three years unemployed category have flowed into the
three years + category rather than into employment. While many are now finding
work as the economy recovers, a significant cohort of unemployed has struggled
to find re-employment and is now at risk of structural unemployment.
Nevertheless, the final June numbers point to another solid quarter for
employment growth, in-line with recent surveys. Employment growth slowed to 2.3%
year-on-year in Q1, and today’s number suggests that the rate of growth
accelerated again in Q2."