| Click for the Finfacts Ireland Portal Homepage |

Finfacts Business News Centre

Home 
 
 News
 Irish
 Irish Economy
 EU Economy
 US Economy
 UK Economy
 Global Economy
 International
 Property
 Innovation
 
 Analysis/Comment
 
 Asia Economy

RSS FEED


How to use our RSS feed

Follow Finfacts on Twitter

 
Web Finfacts

See Search Box lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.

Welcome

Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and you are in its business news section.

Links

Finfacts Homepage

Irish Share Prices

Euribor Daily Rates

Irish Economy

Global Income Per Capita

Global Cost of Living

Irish Tax - Income/Corporate

Global News

Bloomberg News

CNN Money

Cnet Tech News

Newspapers

Irish Independent

Irish Times

Irish Examiner

New York Times

Financial Times

Technology News

 

Feedback

 

Content Management by interactivetools.com.

News : Irish Economy Last Updated: May 27, 2014 - 9:10 AM


Irish Jobs Data 2013/ 2014: Finfacts' doubts were proven right; Bruton was wrong
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
May 26, 2014 - 2:52 PM

Email this article
 Printer friendly page

Irish Jobs Data 2013/ 2014: Finfacts' doubts about the data that was published in March in respect of 2013 were proven right when the CSO reported today that total employment at end of March 2014 was 22,000 below the published count at end December 2013. At a press conference in April which I had attended, Richard Bruton, enterprise and jobs minister, rejected any doubts about the data.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment rose by 1,700 (+0.1%) in the quarter. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 10,600 (+0.6%) in Q4 2013.

The CSO reported last March that total employment had grown by 61,000 in 2013 to 1,910,000 while today, the agency reported that employment was at 1,888,000.

Most economists went with the flow and ministers were distributed a 'talking point' that jobs were being created at a rate of 5,000 a month -- the CSO had issued a caveat about its 27,000 annual jump in employment in 'Agriculture, fisheries and forestry' but that was ignored.

Besides, there was no net jobs creation in January-December 2012 and in the real world, suddenly jobs wouldn't have arrived like manna from the heavens in 2013. 

When I was back in Dublin I put it directly to Richard Bruton, enterprise and jobs minister, that the jobs data was unreliable but he rejected it out of hand - - it was too good a propaganda point to express doubts about.

In April, Prof John FitzGerald of the ESRI, had said that sectoral unemployment data was unreliable for the first time in 60 years.

Finfacts, March 2014: Irish Economy 2014: Did Ireland add 61,000 jobs in 2013?

  • Doubts remain about the data as "Agriculture etc." in the eral world did not add 14,000 jobs in the 12 months April- 2013-March 2014;
  • Some 85,000 unemployed or 4% of the workforce who are in public activation programs, are counted as employed or in education;
  • Self-employment (without employees) jumped by 16,000 in 12 months and the total is back to boom times -- there is no entrepreneurship miracle and many of these people likely are seeking proper paid work.

Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Davy, commented: "At face value, today’s Irish labour market data are a little disappointing. Surveys of companies’ employment intentions and buoyant tax revenue growth pointed to a robust gain in employment in early 2014. But employment grew by just 0.1% in Q1 on the quarter, up 2.3% on the year. This marks a slowdown from the 3.3% annual rate of job creation recorded in Q4 2013. In addition, the unemployment rate has been revised up to 12.0% in Q1, albeit it is still estimated to have fallen to 11.8% in April, exactly in line with the euro-area aggregate.

However, aggregate employment growth figures have been pushed down by weak part-time jobs data. The marginal 0.1% rise in Irish employment in Q1 was split between part-time employment down 1.0% on the quarter, and full-time work up by 0.4%. Full-time jobs are up 3.3% on the year but part-time jobs are down 0.8%.

This weakness in part-time work could relate to the retail sector, where employment fell by 5,900 on the year. However, the broader picture is that retail jobs appear to have levelled off around 270,000 and should benefit from the brighter outlook for consumer spending. As in the UK, part-time work in Ireland grew through the recession as full-time work fell away. It now appears that part-time work is being replaced by full-time employment. So, even after accounting for the fall in part-time work, the pace of full-time employment creation clearly moderated slightly in Q1.

At a sectoral level, Irish job creation remains reasonably broadly based. Manufacturing had contributed to jobs growth in 2013, but was down 0.4% in the year to Q1. In contrast, construction sector employment is up 6.2% and services by 1.7%. Within the services sector, employment rose in hotels and restaurants (13,500), information technology (+3,300), professional and scientific activities (11,800) and administration and support services (+3,000). Retail (-5,900), finance (-1,900) and health and social work activities (-3,200) detracted from employment growth, with the latter sectors hurt by public sector job cuts. Public sector jobs fell by 2,500 in the year to Q1 to 375,500, down 0.7%. In contrast, private sector jobs are up 2.6% on the year."

Brian Mandt, Ibec senior economist, said: "Companies remain confident in Ireland's economic development and continue to hire. An improving labour market should translate into greater consumer spending and further positive knock on effects across the economy.

"Today's figures are consistent with our forecast of a nearly 2% increase in private consumption this year. The improvement was broad based. Nine out of fourteen sectors contributed positively to the increase in overall employment. Strong increases were noted in professional, scientific and technical activities, as well as the accommodation and food service activities, but the financial sector continues to decline.

"Employment rose to 1,903m people in seasonally adjusted terms, the highest level since Q1 2010. It is particularly positive to see that all the new jobs have been full-time positions, which increased from 1.447m to 1.454m. Unemployment, on the other hand, continued its downward trend. Seasonally adjusted the unemployment rate is now at 12 %, the lowest level since Q1 2009.

Brian Mandt said employment so far have been the best indicator for the condition of Ireland's economy and should continue its positive performance in the coming quarters. 

Related Articles
Related Articles


© Copyright 2011 by Finfacts.com

Top of Page

Irish Economy
Latest Headlines
Finfacts launches new news site
Irish Farmers & Milk Prices: 'Shackles' off in April; Demanding safety-net in August
Irish pension managed funds returns at over 12% year-to-date in 2015
Irish chartered accountants' salary packages surge 13% in 12 months
Irish services PMI fastest rate since late 2006; Official data up only 2.4% in 12 months
Irish Economy: Tax €893m above target in year to July — €653m from corporation tax
Fact and Fiction: Time to review Ireland's economic statistics?
Irish M&A deals H1 2015: Dutch or UK firm acquires Irish firm for €32.6bn - they are both American
Irish manufacturing PMI strong in July
Irish Economy: Fall in GNP in Q1 2015; GDP rises
Irish Economy 2015: Central Bank lauds strong recovery; Time to start paying down debt
Irish Budget 2016: Ibec demands 20 tax cuts, spending and investment rises
Low pay in Ireland; Lowest social security & corporate taxes in Europe
Ireland vs Greece: Enda Kenny's false claims on growth, taxes and debt
Irish standard of living in 2014 below Euro Area average, Italian level; Prices 5th highest in EU28
Irish goods exports rose a record 30% in April - due to fake tax-related transactions
Mexican tall ship to sail into Dublin on June 17th
Irish industrial production up 20% in first four months of 2015; Construction down 2.6% in first quarter
Irish Economy 2015: ESRI slams return to boom-time pro-cyclical fiscal policy
Irish pension fund returns in average range 1.6% - 1.8% in May 2015
Irish service sector PMI remains strong; Tax avoidance clouds data
Ireland: Official unemployment rate at 9.8% in May; Broad rate at 19% — 440,000 people
Ireland: Fiscal Council warns of dodgy forecasts, no plan; OECD warns of new property bubble
Irish Public Finances: Tax revenue in first five months of 2015 €734m ahead of target
No simple measure of economic progress in Ireland: GDP & GNP defective
Irish manufacturing PMI rises in May; Production up unbelievable 45% in year to March!
ESRI says data volatility hinders Irish economic forecasting; Tax avoidance taboo cause
Ireland at 16 in international competitiveness ranking; US, Singapore and Hong Kong on top
Irish Economy 2015: Sectors to add 200,000 jobs?; Broad jobless rate at 19%
Irish Export Performance: Myths and reality - Ireland is a poor exporter
Irish Economy: 41,300 jobs added in 12 months to Q1 2015 - Construction up 19,600
China-Ireland: Economic relationship on a slow burn
Estonia, Austria, France, Ireland head global alcohol rankings
Irish Exchequer Returns: Tax receipts under target in April but ahead in year
Irish service sector PMI rose in April
Irish manufacturing PMI remained strong in April- includes overseas manufacturing
Irish Live Register + 90,000 activation scheme numbers at 439,000 in April
Ireland: Coalition drops 2018 full-employment target
Ireland Spring Statement: Noonan promises 200,000 net new jobs by 2018
Irish Economy 2015: Retail sales volume up 1.4% in month of March