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News : Global Economy Last Updated: Dec 13, 2013 - 8:02 AM


IEA raises forecast for 2013 and 2014 global oil demand
By Finfacts Team
Dec 12, 2013 - 7:08 AM

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The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based energy watchdog  for 28 industrialised countries including Ireland, on Wednesday raised its forecasts for global oil consumption in response to the highest US demand growth in a decade. Consumption by Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD countries) is growing for the first time in two years.

The IEA's Oil Market Report (OMR) for December published Wednesday raised the estimate of global oil demand for 2013 by 130,000 barrels per day (130 kb/d), to 91.2m barrels per day (mb/d), on stronger-than-expected third-quarter demand growth among OECD countries of 320 kb/d. Global demand is now seen advancing by 1.2 mb/d in both 2013 and 2014, to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014.

Global oil supplies increased by 310 kb/d in November to 92.3 mb/d, as non-OPEC crude output topped 43 mb/d for the first time in decades. Year-on-year, November supplies rose by 810 kb/d, as a 1.9 mb/d surge in non-OPEC liquids and OPEC NGL (natural gas liquids) more than offset a 1.1 mb/d drop in OPEC crude.

OPEC crude supply fell by 160 kb/d in November to 29.73 mb/d, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Renewed disruptions in Libya and smaller drops in Nigeria, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela more than offset higher output in Iran, Iraq and Angola.

Global refinery crude runs plunged to 73.6 mb/d in October, down by 2 mb/d on September and by 1 mb/d from the previous year, on sweeping plant maintenance and weak margins. OECD Europe and the United States led the decline. Throughputs are projected to rebound to 76.3 mb/d in the current quarter, up 180 kb/d from a year earlier, and to 76.7 mb/d in the first quarter of next year, a year-on-year rise of 1.2 mb/d.

Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 11 December 2013

  • Futures prices fell in early November but bounced back later and into December as refinery runs picked up. Oil markets took an interim deal on the Iran nuclear question in their stride. Rising US supplies helped the WTI-Brent spread widen to $17.55/bbl at end November. Brent last traded at $109.40/bbl, WTI at $98.30/bbl.
  • The estimate of global oil demand for 2013 has been revised up by 130 kb/d, to 91.2 mb/d, on stronger-than-expected 3Q13 OECD demand growth of 320 kb/d. Global demand is now seen advancing by 1.2 mb/d in both 2013 and 2014, to reach 92.4 mb/d in 2014.
  • Global oil supplies increased by 310 kb/d in November to 92.3 mb/d, as non-OPEC crude output topped 43 mb/d for the first time in decades. Year on year, November supplies rose by 810 kb/d, as a 1.9 mb/d surge in non-OPEC liquids and OPEC NGL more than offset a 1.1 mb/d drop in OPEC crude.
  • OPEC crude supply fell by 160 kb/d in November to 29.73 mb/d, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Renewed disruptions in Libya and smaller drops in Nigeria, Kuwait, the UAE and Venezuela more than offset higher output in Iran, Iraq and Angola. OPEC ministers kept their group output target unchanged at 30 mb/d.
  • Global refinery crude runs plunged to 73.6 mb/d in October, down by 2 mb/d on September and by 1 mb/d on the year, on sweeping plant maintenance and weak margins. OECD Europe and the US led the decline. Throughputs are projected to rebound to 76.3 mb/d for 4Q13, up 180 kb/d on the year, and 76.7 mb/d in 1Q14 (+1.2 mb/d).
  • OECD industry stocks edged down by 12.1 mb to 2 684 mb in October, a smaller-than-normal draw for the season, as surging crude and feedstock inventories largely offset an unusually steep product draw. Middle distillate stocks fell by 22.8 mb and at the onset of winter stood nearly 50 mb below average.

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