Although growth outlook is mixed across Emerging Asia, the latest Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs), issued Monday, suggest signs of growth stabilisation for China and a more positive outlook for the Philippines and Singapore, while still weak growth prospects for India.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says prolonged external headwinds have weighed on growth in Southeast Asia. The slowdown in China have weakened the growth momentum of ASEAN. Indeed, Thailand entered a technical recession in the second quarter of 2013, while Indonesia’s grow momentum is slowing. In Malaysia and Viet Nam, while real GDP improved slightly in the second quarter of 2013, underlying growth momentum was subdued.

On the other hand, Singapore’s GDP grew at a faster pace on the back of improvement in trade-related sectors as well as resilience in domestics-oriented industries. The Philippines economy was the strongest performer in the region, largely due to its strong domestic demand.

However, the key imminent downside risk facing Southeast Asia, China and India is the turmoil in the financial market, triggered by the prospects of tapering of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the US. Emerging Asian economies which ran large current account deficits and more susceptible to macroeconomic risks of capital outflows such as India and Indonesia bore the brunt of the financial turmoil . In addition, global oil prices will remain volatile should the tension in the Middle-east persists and this could cloud the inflationary outlook in the near-term.