| Click for the Finfacts Ireland Portal Homepage |

Finfacts Business News Centre

Home 
 
 News
 Irish
 Irish Economy
 EU Economy
 US Economy
 UK Economy
 Global Economy
 International
 Property
 Innovation
 
 Analysis/Comment
 
 Asia Economy

RSS FEED


How to use our RSS feed

Follow Finfacts on Twitter

 
Web Finfacts

See Search Box lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.

Welcome

Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and you are in its business news section.

Links

Finfacts Homepage

Irish Share Prices

Euribor Daily Rates

Irish Economy

Global Income Per Capita

Global Cost of Living

Irish Tax - Income/Corporate

Global News

Bloomberg News

CNN Money

Cnet Tech News

Newspapers

Irish Independent

Irish Times

Irish Examiner

New York Times

Financial Times

Technology News

 

Feedback

 

Content Management by interactivetools.com.

News : Irish Economy Last Updated: May 29, 2013 - 3:31 PM


Irish Economy: Investec Ireland keeps 2013 GDP forecast at 1.2%
By Michael Hennigan, Finfacts founder and editor
May 28, 2013 - 8:03 AM

Email this article
 Printer friendly page

Irish Economy: Investec Ireland in its latest 'Irish Economy Monitor' has left its growth forecasts unchanged, with GDP (gross domestic product) still expected to grow by 1.2% this year (GNP - -  gross national product - - +1.0%) and by a further 2.0% in 2014 (GNP +1.6%).

Philip O’Sullivan, chief economist, says: "The Irish economic recovery has been and will continue to be two-tiered. Economic growth will be chiefly driven by the export sector, before multiplier effects fully feed through to the domestic economy. This is helped by the composition of Ireland’s exports: high-value added tech, pharma and agri products."

  • PMI (purchasing managers' index) indicators were mixed in April. The Manufacturing PMI registered its second successive decline, while the Services PMI has recorded growth in each of the past nine months;
  • This divergence is consistent with other indicators, which may suggest that the services will retain the growth baton over the coming period;
  • Ireland is alone among the so-called PIIGS countries in having a Balance of Payments surplus. This outcome has been driven by a resilient export performance (particularly on the services side) and a decline in imports from peak levels;
  • Ireland has seen a significant improvement in its cost competitiveness since the onset of the recession both in absolute and relative terms.

Our alternative view which is divergent from what could be termed the consensus is:

  • The surge in services exports is mainly fake, reflecting tax-related revenue transfers from other countries that have been getting a lot of international attention in recent weeks;
  • There would have been no growth to report in 2012 but for these intra-company accounting transactions;
  • About €40bn of the total services exports value of €91bn in 2012, is effectively fake - - sales made by Google Australia today are Irish exports but this is as solid as a leprechaun's gold;
  • Services PMI data is also not reliable because the big services companies on the panel are the likes of Google, Microsoft and Facebook;
  • Only around one-third of pharmaceutical export revenues count towards GDP. The value added of the pharmaceutical sector was €13.8bn in 2011 or just 8.7% of GDP;
  • Richard Bruton, jobs minister, in recent months has been highlighting that the Irish private sector added 12,000 jobs last year. However, the CSO's Q4 2012 Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) data [pdf] also shows that private sector jobs classified as 'Self employed/Assisting relative' grew by almost as much, which given the state of the economy, hardly indicates success. Part-time jobs in the whole workforce grew by 13,000. The ESRI estimates that net emigration will be at 32,000 people this year and a further 22,000 net will leave in 2014. 316,000 people or 14.7% of the labour force were jobless in 2012;
  • The ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) has also   recognises an anomaly in the QNHS in the report of a rise in agricultural employment: "Excluding agriculture entirely, the annual fall in total employment for the fourth quarter of 2012 was 10,600 on a seasonally adjusted basis...The continued underlying fall in non-agricultural employment is a less encouraging finding than the main results suggest."
  • Claims on competitiveness should be treated with caution because of distortions caused by the multinational sector: Mario Draghi, ECB president, said in Amsterdam last month in respect of unit labour costs. "Ireland has seen an 18 percentage point improvement relative to the euro area average" - -  this is not reality.
  • Research by John FitzGerald, ESRI economist, shows that Balance of Payments surplus data is exaggerated
Apple, taxes, Irish economy and creating 200,000 net jobs

Investec: Irish Economy Monitor [pdf]

Check out our subscription service, Finfacts Premium , at a low annual charge of €25 - - if you are a regular user of Finfacts, 50 euro cent a week is hardly a huge ask to support the service.

Related Articles
403 Forbidden

Forbidden

Execute access is denied.


© Copyright 2011 by Finfacts.com

Top of Page

Irish Economy
Latest Headlines
Irish economic performance since 1922 and Scottish independence
Irish Economy: Cars boost retail sales in July; Ex-cars sales dip
Ireland: Recovery on track but fantasy economics endure
Net emigration by Irish nationals at 124,000 in 2009-2014
Q1 2011-Q2 2014: Irish employee jobs up 21,000; 130,000 part-timers seeking full-time work
Irish Economy: Job numbers & workforce fell in H1 2014; Finfacts proved right
Irish Economy: In 4 years to Q2 2014 average hourly earnings fell by 1.5%
Irish Budget 2015 & Economy: More demand for tax cuts
At least one fifth of Irish SMEs have direct exposure to property debt
Irish Economy 2014: Export volume grew by 7% in the second quarter
Irish consumer sentiment increased in July
Domestic ownership of Irish government bonds rises from 28% to 48% since 2012
Irish Economy 2014: Average annual professional vacancies up 6% in July
IMF says Ireland can repay bailout loans early without penalty
IATA says Dublin-London second-busiest international route
Irish Economy 2014: How strong is the economic recovery?
Irish Economy 2014: Industrial production dipped 18.2% in June; Up 3.5% in 12 months
Irish Economy 2014: Annual consumer prices rose 0.3% in July
Irish Economy 2014: Growth to remain strong in 2014/ 2015 says ESRI; High debt, low credit are risks
Irish pension managed funds up an average 6.7% in year to July
Official Irish services index up 0.5% in June 2014; 1.1% in 12 months
Irish Economy: Services PMI rises in July; CSO data more muted
Irish Economy: July Exchequer deficit of €5.2bn is €798m lower than Budget 2014 target
Irish Economy 2014: Live Register numbers + schemes at 469,00 in July
Irish Economy: Bruton publishes new FDI policy; Avoids inconvenient facts
Irish Economy: Central Bank raises 2014 forecasts
Irish corporate tax policy like property bubble driven by short-term interests
Irish Economy: Retail sales volume up 4.8% in year to June; Ex-cars at 3.6%
Irish income inequality fell during the economic bust
Irish Economy: Bruton and politics of jobs numbers; How to add 50%
Corporation Tax Reform: Irish Government should reject pleadings of short-termists
Irish Economy: Bruton's claim of 70,000 jobs added in past 18 months is not correct
FDI in Ireland: Grant Thornton publishes promotional brochure not balanced report
Irish Banking Inquiry: Advisory group says begin crash saga 20 years ago
Moody's forecasts Irish growth rates "of at least 3% for the next few years"
Irish National Competitiveness Council fails to separate wheat from the chaff
Irish SME Finance: Oireachtas committee calls for less dependency on traditional banking
Irish Economy: Merchandise exports up 15% in May
Irish industrial production fell in May; up 32.3% in 12 months & 16.4% in period 2010-2014
Irish indigenous tradeable exports at 9% of total headline exports in 2013