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News : International Last Updated: May 9, 2013 - 7:55 AM


Markets: Providence Resources is debt free; Dow closes above 15,000 for first time
By Finfacts Team
May 8, 2013 - 12:28 PM

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The Providence Resources oil rig at the Barryroe well, offshore West Cork. The original Barryroe is a townland south of Bandon and northwest of Kinsale. Providence Resources said last October that a study has established oil recovery factors which range from 17% to 43%. Based on a development scenario involving 41 horizontal production and 22 horizontal water-injection wells over a 25 year field life, a recovery factor of 31% is modeled. These horizontal producer and injector wells are designed to be 600m in length, with the producers incorporating gas lift.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 15,000 for the first time Tuesday as stocks continue a historic four-year run that investors are finding increasingly irresistible.

Tuesday's rally, which pushed the Dow up 87.31 points to 15056.20, was the latest milestone for a steep climb that began in the throes of the financial crisis. Since the market bottomed in March 2009, the Dow has surged nearly 130% without suffering a single bear-market downturn—typically defined as a decline of 20% or more from a recent high.

The Dow is already up 15% this year, despite a congressional battle over the federal deficit and a banking crisis in Cyprus that threatened a flare-up in the euro zone's continuing debt woes.

The Dow hasn't suffered a three-day losing streak in 87 days, the longest such run since 1958. It has been nearly six months since the Dow suffered even a 5% decline. And the last 10% drop took place in the summer of 2011, when the index lost 17% as the European debt crisis flared up and the U.S. government's debt rating was downgraded.

Dow Jones Milestones since 1896

John Authers of The Financial Times said last March when the Dow had hit its first record in years: "Crucially, the Dow’s illogically chosen members are weighted by their share price, rather than their market valuation. This means companies that happen to have a high share price can outweigh larger companies with a smaller price per share.

This is ludicrous. For example. IBM now accounts for 11.1% of the Dow and has a market value of $228.7bn. ExxonMobil, back as the world’s largest company following the decline of Apple (never a Dow member), has a market cap of $398.5bn, but a Dow weighting of only 4.8%. Microsoft, a slightly larger company than IBM these days at $235.8bn, accounts for only 1.5% of the Dow. Meanwhile, Caterpillar outweighs both ExxonMobil and Microsoft, despite having a market value of only $58.8bn. Since the Dow hit bottom in March 2009, Caterpillar has accounted for 515 extra points on the Dow, while growing its market value by $44bn. Meanwhile, Microsoft has grown by almost exactly $100bn; and contributed 102 points to the Dow."

Providence Resources, the oil & gas exploration company today reported an operating loss in 2012 of over €5.4m, compared with a loss of €4.07m reported last year.

The main event of the year was the oil discovery in the Barryroe field off the West Cork coast.

Providence had a pre-tax loss of €8.2m for the year to the end of December.

The company paid down all its debt from the proceeds of the sale of its UK onshore assets. Over the past 18 months, Providence reduced its debt levels by about €75m and it said it is now debt free.

Results detail

Providence Resources says Barryroe site off West Cork coast may contain 1.6bn barrels of oil

Providence Resources says Barryroe site off West Cork coast may contain 780m more barrels of oil

Economic View: Portugal stealing a march on Ireland? Dermot O’Leary, chief economist of Goodbody, comments - - "Where Ireland leads Portugal has generally been following in its path out of the bailout. Like Ireland, Portugal has been largely compliant with the terms of its EU/IMF programme from the start, albeit with some fiscal slippage recently. It has enacted structural reforms and begun to regain competitiveness and grow its export base. Many investors would see it as following in the footsteps of Ireland and, from a bond market perspective, provides a little extra yield pick-up to boot.

In a sign that demand for the sovereign debt of the peripheral nations remains strong, Portugal issued its first new bonds since the beginning of the bailout yesterday. There was €9bn in demand for the ten-year syndicated deal, with €3bn being sold at a yield of 5.7%. Like Ireland, Portugal is now fully funded for 2013 and is pre-funding for 2014. Significantly, demand was evenly spread across Europe and the US.

While further syndicated issuance could follow in the coming months, Portugal may announce a debt issuance strategy in the coming weeks, according to its finance minister Vitor Gaspar. This is something that the NTMA has discussed recently but has not set out a timeframe for its announcement. Such an announcement would be the next step in a return to full market access and also tick another box in the conditions for the ECB’s OMT programme. Portugal may steal a march on Ireland on this particular issue."

Portugal issues 10-year bond for first time since bailout: Conall Mac Coille of Davy comments - - "Stock markets rose to record highs yesterday following better-than-expected results from financials. Portugal issued its first 10-year bond since its EU/IMF bailout. A 2% rise in German factory orders helped sentiment towards the euro. Today's German industrial production data for March are expected to show a 0.3% fall in Q1 — unwelcome, but shallower than the 2.6% contraction in Q4 2012.

Stock markets edged higher yesterday, extending the gains following Friday's non-farm payrolls report. The Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.7%, the S&P500 0.6% and the FTSE100 0.6%. The Dow Jones closed above 15,000 for the first time, and the FTSE100 closed at a five-year high. Better-than-expected results from European financials drove indices higher. And a surprise 0.25% rate cut in Australia fuelled speculation about further central bank stimulus globally.

A 2% rise in German factory orders helped sentiment towards the euro, up 0.4% at one stage against the dollar before falling back in later in the day. Today's release of German industrial production in March is expected to show a 0.1% month-on-month decline, so that output has fallen by 0.3% in Q1 2013. While still a contraction, this is a better out-turn than the 2.6% fall recorded in Q4 2012. Overall euro-area industrial production looks set to record shallower declines in Q1 2013 than in the second half of 2012.

Yesterday, Portugal joined Ireland in issuing a 10-year bond for the first time since its EU/IMF bailout. The bid-to-cover ratio was over 3x with €10.2bn of bids for a €3bn target with the coupon 5.65%. Generally, the rise in equities put upward pressure on benchmark bond yields yesterday with German bunds up 6bps. The US treasury yield was 2bps higher at 1.78%, up from lows close to 1.65% in April.

Overnight, the UK BRC like-for-like retail sales survey showed -2.2% annual growth in April. This is a disappointing out-turn following consistent positive growth in the first quarter of 2013. That said, the total sales measure fell just -0.6% yoy. The BRC release stressed that three-month annual growth is still in positive territory, +2.7% year-on-year for food sales, and 2.5% for non-food.

Overall, the BRC survey is a volatile measure, and often has a poor correlation with movements in actual UK retail sales volumes. So it is probably too early to say that retail sales fell back further in April. Other indicators for the UK consumer have been more positive. New car registrations data released yesterday were up 14% year-on-year in April. Furthermore the Halifax house price measure rose 1.1% in April, with annual inflation of 2% the strongest rise since September 2010."

CRH predicts headwinds in Europe offset by progress in Americas in H2 2013

China reports exports rise in April but doubts expressed about size

Emerging market economic growth slows in April

US Markets

The Dow rose 87 points or 0.58% Tuesday to 15,056.

The S&P 500 added 0.52% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.11%.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific gained 1.0% in Tokyo Wednesday.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 0.74% and Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.48%; Kospi 200 index rose 0.11%; Australia's ASX/S&P 200 added 1.09%; in Mumbai, the Bombay Stock Exchange the S&P BSE India Sensex Index climbed 0.51%.

Europe Markets

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx Europe 600 is up 0.41% in mid-morning trading Wednesday.

In Dublin, the ISEQ is down 0.66%.

CRH is off 3.60% and Providence Resources has slipped 1.44%. 

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.3125 and at £0.8467.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Tuesday the BDI rose 11 points or 1.25% to 889.

Crude oil for June 2013 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $95.59 down 3 cents from Tuesday's close. In London, Brent for June delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $103.70. The North Sea benchmark accounts for two-thirds of the global market.

Bloomberg reports that for the first year since the futures were created, Brent crude is poised to overtake West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil as the world’s most-traded commodity.

Daily trading in Brent jumped 14% to average 567,000 contracts in the year to November 20 compared with all of 2011, while WTI fell 17% to 575,000, according to data from the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London and New York Mercantile Exchange compiled by Bloomberg. The number of Brent futures changing hands has exceeded those for WTI every month from April through October, the longest streak since at least 1995.

Brent, produced in the North Sea, is gaining favour among traders because of its role as the benchmark for energy prices from Saudi Arabia to Russia. Prices have climbed 34% in the past two years, reflecting everything from war in Libya to the embargo on Iran. WTI, the main grade in the US, has risen 9% as the nation, which prohibits crude exports, has struggled to clear a glut at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex futures.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1450.70 up $1.70 from Tuesday's closing in New York.

Gold had hit a record high of $1,921.05 a troy ounce on Sept 06, 2011.

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