Irish House Prices: Asking prices in
Dublin in the first quarter of 2013 were up 0.5% on a year previously, according
to the 2013-Q1 report published by property website Daft.ie. This is the
first time since early 2007 - - 6 years - - that asking prices
increased in a twelve-month period. For the country as a whole, the annual rate
of falls in asking prices eased to 6.6%, down from 15% a year ago. Meanwhile,
the rate of decline in property prices nationally has continued to moderate with
prices falling by 1.8% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2013. This compares
with a fall of 3% in the previous quarter according to MyHome.ie, the online
Daft says that prices are on average 54.7% below their peak in 2007. The small
annual increase in asking prices in Dublin is not seen in other cities, where
prices are down by between 9.8% in Cork and 14.6% in Waterford. In Galway,
asking prices are down by 10.7% while in Limerick they are down by 12.9%.
Outside the cities, prices were down by roughly 10% on average, although the
fall was greater in Connacht-Ulster (15%) than in Leinster (8.5%) or Munster
Figures for time-to-sell indicate that there has been some improvement in market
conditions over the past 12 months, with 40% of properties finding a buyer
within 4 months, compared to 33% a year ago. In Dublin, 55% of properties find a
buyer within 4 months.
The total stock of properties sitting on the market nationwide is 43,000. This
is its lowest level since mid-2007 but based on figures from the Property Price
Register, this still represents just over two years of transactions. In Dublin,
however, there is the equivalent of just five months of transactions currently
sitting on the market.
Commenting on the report, economist with Daft.ie Ronan Lyons said: “The
latest figures show that the gap between prices in Dublin and those elsewhere is
growing and growing quite rapidly. A year ago, a 4-bedroom detached home in
South County Dublin was 2.6 times the prices of the same property in Mayo but
that ratio has since risen to 3.5, well above levels seen at the bubble.
“On its own, the growing differential between Dublin and elsewhere signifies
that first-time buyers are no longer prepared to sprawl and pay the costs of
long commutes. But with prices actually rising again and only in certain parts
of the country, this has even greater implications for the Government, as it
suggests that there are not enough properties in areas close to jobs and other
amenities that first-time buyers are looking for.”
Daft report [pdf]
The rate of decline in property prices nationally
has continued to moderate with prices falling by 1.8% in the first quarter of
2013. This compares with a fall of 3% in the previous quarter.
According to the latest house price survey from MyHome.ie the annual rate
of decline in the year to Q1 2013 was 9.8%, the lowest annual rate of decline in
For the first time since the property crash in 2006, Dublin prices have remained
unchanged for the second quarter in a row. The annual rate of decline in Dublin
was 4.8% in the quarter, down from 12% in Q4 2012.
The figures show that the mix adjusted average house price nationally now stands
at €197K down 52% from the peak of the market. In Dublin the corresponding
figure is €236K, down 56% from peak.
The author of the report Annette Hughes, from DKM Economic Consultants
said the new survey indicated that prices are stabilising in Dublin.
“At 4.8% the annual rate of decline in Dublin is about half the national rate.
Overall asking prices in Dublin have been reasonably stable over the last year
and this may indicate that they are now levelling off. Nationally prices are
continuing to fall, but the annual rate is under 10% for the first time since
2008, and this is also a positive development.
Immediate issues impacting the market include the increasing demands on
disposable incomes - - the property tax for example - and access to mortgage
finance. Progress on addressing the mortgage arrears challenge over the coming
months may lead to an increase in the number of properties coming to the market
which may depress property prices further in the short term. This development
together with a difficult budget later in the year would suggest property prices
are likely to remain volatile through 2013.” Hughes said.
Angela Keegan, managing director of MyHome.ie said that while improved
affordability was welcome for consumers, access to mortgage finance while
improving remains an issue.
“We want to see a normally functioning property market and hopefully the
improved affordability and stabilisation of prices in Dublin and some other
areas will persuade buyers and sellers that the time is right to act.
The focus is often on buyers but given that stock levels in Dublin are down 41%
year on year it is also clear we need to look at the supply side of the
equation. If this situation persists it’s possible we could see falsely inflated
prices in some areas in the short term due to the demand/supply imbalance,” Keegan said.
Turning to the local property tax issue which is top of mind for everyone at the
moment Keegan pointed out that asking prices are an important indicator of the
property market and that is why MyHome included it as a factor in its Property
Tax Estimator which is available on the website.
The average time to sale agreed in Dublin is six months, in Galway its seven
while it’s eight in Limerick. In Cork its ten months while Waterford is eleven.
The median asking price in Cork and Cork City remained unchanged during the last
quarter at €195K while it also remained unchanged in Waterford at €179K.
In County Limerick the median price fell by 2.9% to €165K while in the City it
fell by 3.2% to €150K. In Co Galway prices fell by 1.3% to €185K. This was the
smallest fall in over a year. In Galway City prices fell by 3.2% to €179K.
MyHome.ie report [pdf]
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