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News : International Last Updated: Nov 23, 2012 - 10:03 AM


Markets: EU leaders keep ECB executive board an all-male club
By Finfacts Team
Nov 23, 2012 - 9:58 AM

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Eurozone indicators gauge strength of economy in Q4: David McNamara of Davy comments - - "Asian markets closed higher overnight on the back on decent manufacturing data from China, with the slowdown in Chinese output looking like it has now troughed. The final estimate of German Q3 GDP remained at 0.2% this morning, with the expenditure breakdown revealing a slowdown in export growth to 1.4% from 3.3% in Q2 with domestic demand largely unchanged. But the focus will now turn to leading indicators with the German IFO business climate index expected to weaken further to 99.5 from 100.0 in November.

Following below 50 estimates for the PMIs yesterday, the German economy looks to have weakened in Q4. But French business confidence may have risen in November following the surprise announcement by President Hollande of a payroll tax cut for businesses, largely funded by an increase in VAT rates. The flash PMIs for France still point to a stagnant economy in Q4, but the manufacturing and services indices rose by more than expected yesterday and today's data may lift some of the gloom following Moody's rating cut on Monday. Overall then, no material improvement in the Eurozone in Q4 but no further deterioration either, with composite Eurozone PMI consistent with flat to marginally negative output on the quarter.

In the UK, mortgage approvals are expected to tick up to 32,000 in October from 31,175 in what looks like a tentative recovery in lending in Q4, probably boosted by the Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). That figure is still half of peak levels but should strengthen into the New Year as the full effects of the FLS take hold."

Economic View: Ireland starts to make preparations to exit the bailout programme; Juliet Tennent of Goodbody comments - - "The Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, confirmed yesterday that a deal on Ireland's legacy bank debt deal will not be forthcoming prior to the end of the year. This follows similar comments by the Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, and the Secretary General of the Department of Finance recently which also cast doubt on any deal prior to the 2013 budget. A deal on the legacy bank debt that involves the ESM is dependent on the creation of a banking union and a euro area wide regulator. Progress to date on these issues has been slow with significant differences between the Eurogroup leaders still to be ironed out. The Taoiseach said he wants a deal on Ireland's bank debt to be negotiated by European finance ministers "in parallel" with discussions surrounding the banking union. Despite both France and Germany recognising Ireland as a "special case" a deal in relation to Ireland’s legacy bank debt remains elusive. A restructuring of the promissory note, that involves the ECB, remains the most likely outcome.

Both the Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, and the head of the National Treasury Management Agency, John Corrigan, stated yesterday that Ireland is in the process of making preparations to exit the bailout programme. The IMF is preparing a policy paper, due early in 2013, aimed at facilitating this with precautionary credit lines likely to form part of the strategy.

While a deal in relation to Ireland’s legacy bank debt would help Ireland regain market access it is not central to the Government’s, or NTMA’s, plans to exit the bailout programme. A precautionary credit line, acting as a backstop, may be part of the strategy, although the Government will be wary of any conditionality that may be attached to such a facility."

US Markets

Markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index-ex Japan rose 0.8% Friday.

Japan's markets were closed China's Shanghai Composite Index added 0.58%; South Korea's Kospi rose 0.62%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was flat and in Mumbai, the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex 30 climbed 0.20%.

Europe Markets

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx Europe 600 is down 0.17% in morning trading Friday.

The ISEQ  has slipped 0.01%.

CRH is down 0.47%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies

The euro is trading at $1.2897 and at £0.8095.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On  Thursday this week the BDI closed up  11 points or 1.03% at 1,084 - -  the BDI is down 38.26% in 2012.

Freighter Oversupply Weighs on Shipowners and Banks - - Jan 26, 2012: The New York Times says vessels bought during the global commodity boom are only now being delivered, putting pressure on the European banks that financed the purchases.

The skyscrapers and immaculate beaches of Singapore's seaport look out on one of the world’s largest parking lots: mile after mile of empty cargo ships, as far as the eye can see.

Similar fleets bob at anchor, with empty cargo holds, off the coasts of southeast Malaysia and Hong Kong. And dozens of newly built ships float empty near the giant shipyards of South Korea and China, their owners from all over the world reluctant to accept delivery during one of the worst markets ever for the global shipping industry.

As recently as six weeks ago large freighters that can carry bulk commodities like iron ore or grain were fetching charter rates of $15,000 a day. Now, brokers and owners say, the going rate is $6,000 a day. If any customers can even be found.

Crude oil for January 2013 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $87.02 down 36 cents from Wednesday's close (markets were closed Thursday). In London, Brent for January delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $110.29. The North Sea benchmark accounts for two-thirds of the global market.

The margin between the US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) used on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent is at $23 - - The Globe and Mail says that for the past 10 months, Canadian producers - - whose prices are tied to WTI - - have been taking steep discounts for their oil compared with international crude prices that are benchmarked against North Sea Brent, which can be shipped more readily. In the past, WTI tended to trade at a small premium to Brent, because it is easier to refine.

That spread hit a peak of $28.08 (US) on Oct. 14, but has fallen dramatically since then. After plans for more pipeline capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma, the differential narrowed.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,733.60, up $3.90 from Wednesday's close (markets were closed Thursday) in New York.

Gold had hit a record high of $1,921.05 a troy ounce on Sept 06, 2011.

Check out our subscription service, Finfacts Premium , at a low annual charge of €25 - - if you are a regular user of Finfacts, 50 euro cent a week is hardly a huge ask to support the service.


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