Irish Economy: On a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register total recorded a monthly
decrease of 1,000 in October 2012, bringing the seasonally adjusted total to 434,200. The
Central Statistics Office (CSO) said that the standardised unemployment rate (SUR) in October 2012 was 14.8%, unchanged from the latest September 2012 rate. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the most recent Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) was 14.8% in the second quarter of 2012.
In unadjusted terms there were 420,172 people signing on the Live Register in October 2012. This represents an annual decrease of 10,260 (-2.4%). The trend in the overall Live Register continues to be one of movement within a small range.
Other features include: On a seasonally adjusted basis the Live Register
showed a monthly decrease of 700 males in October 2012, while females decreased by 300 over the same period.
The number of male claimants decreased by 9,050 (-3.3%) to 268,545 over the year and female claimants decreased by 1,210 (-0.8%) to 151,627. This compares with a decrease of 4,004 (-1.4%) to 277,595 for males and an increase of 4,883 (+3.3%), to 152,837 for females in the year to October 2011.
The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseeker’s Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest estimated number of persons unemployed as of the second quarter of 2012 was 308,500.
Live Register duration of continuous registration:
The number of long term
claimants (12 months or more) on the Live Register in October 2012 was 188,117. The number of male long term claimants increased by 2,657 (+2.0%) in the year to October 2012, while the comparable increase for females was 5,687 (+11.5%) giving an overall annual increase of 8,344 (+4.6%) in the number of
long term claimants.
In October 55.2% (232,055) of all claimants on the Live Register were short
term claimants. The comparable figure for October 2011 was 58.2% (250,659). The annual fall of 18,604 (-7.4%) in the number of short term claimants consisted of
a decrease of 11,707 (-7.9%) in the number of male short term claimants and a decrease of 6,897 (-6.7%) in female short term claimants.
Live Register casual and part-time workers: There were 85,663 casual and
part-time workers on the Live Register in October, which represents 20.4% of the total Live Register. This compares with 19.8% one year earlier when there were 85,029 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register. In the year to October 2012 the number of casual and part-time workers increased by 634 (+0.7%), with the number of males increasing by 1,595 (+3.5%) and the number of females decreasing by 961 (-2.4%).
Live Register age groups: In the year to October 2012 the number of
persons aged 25 and over on the Live Register decreased by 2,467 (-0.7%), and the number of persons aged under 25 decreased by 7,793 (-10.0%). Annual decreases in persons aged under 25 have occurred in all months since July 2010. The percentage of persons aged under 25 on the Live Register now stands at 16.6% for October 2012, down from 18.1% in October 2011 and 19.3 % in October 2010.
Live Register by other classifications: In October Irish nationals accounted
for 82.5% (346,675) of the number of persons on the Live Register. Of the 73,497 non-Irish nationals, the largest constituent group on the Live Register was nationals from the EU15 to EU27 States (39,347), followed by the UK (16,767).
David McNamara of Davy comments :
Numbers on Live Register decrease in
- Total numbers on the unadjusted Live
Register fell to 420,172 in October from 429,335 in September;
- On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number
of claimants also declined to 434,200 from 435,200;
- This leaves the SUR unemployment rate
unchanged at 14.8%.
Stabilisation in Live Register, but long-term
numbers remain a worry
- The Live Register did stabilise in Q3, with
the average number of claimants falling to 435,867 from 437,733;
- This stabilisation has continued in October,
with today's numbers marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the
- However, the number of long-term unemployed
(at 188,117) is up 4.6% year-on-year, but the rate of growth has slowed
somewhat in recent months.
Weak recovery in employment expected in the
- In our recent research note on the Irish
economy, we forecast a recovery in the Irish labour market, with
unemployment falling to 14.4% in 2013 from 14.7% in 2012;
- Encouragingly, the private sector has been
creating jobs in recent quarters, and FDI job announcements are up on 2011;
- But the pace of growth in private sector
employment has not been enough to offset cuts in the public sector;
- While the drag of public sector cuts should
abate next year, we see employment rising by just 0.3% in 2013 following a
1.1% contraction in 2012.
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