In the year to July, Irish residential property prices at a national level,
fell by 12.5%. This compares with an annual rate of decline of 12.9% in June and
a decline of 12% recorded in the twelve months to July 2010.
The Central Statistics Office reports that residential property prices fell
by 0.8% in the month of July. This compares with a decline of 2.1% recorded in
June and a decline of 1.3% in July of last year.
In Dublin residential property prices in July remained the same as in June
and were 11.9% lower than a year ago. Dublin house prices increased by 0.3% in
the month and were 11.6% lower compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment
prices fell by 1.9% in the month of July and were 13.7% lower when compared with
the same month of 2010.
The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding
Dublin) fell by 1.3% in July compared with a decline of 1.5% in the same month
of last year.
Prices were 12.8% lower than in July 2010.
House prices in Dublin are just under 47% lower than at their highest level
in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are now just over 54% lower than they were
in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are now almost 49% lower
than at their highest level in February 2007. The fall in the price of
residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at almost 40%.
Overall, the national index is almost 43% lower than its highest level in 2007.
Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody
House prices continue their decline -House prices declined by 0.8% in July and were down 12.5% yoy. From the peak
prices are down 43% for the country overall, with prices in Dublin down by 49%.
While there is no near-term drivers of prices rises, price/income ratio type
analyses suggest that prices are now close to “fair value”. One important caveat
though is that this is not a good gauge of short-term price movements.
Mortgage arrears trends worsen further - The final data release
this morning is the Central Bank’s mortgage arrears for June 2011.
Owner-occupied mortgage arrears (more than three months) rose to 7.2% of total
mortgages outstanding in June, up from 6.3% in Mar and 5.7% in December 2010.
Highlighting the fact that higher-value mortgages are more likely to be in
arrears, this translates into arrears worth 9.4% of the value of the
owner-occupied mortgage book (up from 8.3% in March). Recent debate in Ireland
has focused on the issue of solutions to mortgage difficulties, including the
notion of mortgage debt forgiveness. These data will intensify that debate.
Execute access is denied.