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In the year to July, Irish residential property prices at a national level,
fell by 12.5%. This compares with an annual rate of decline of 12.9% in June and
a decline of 12% recorded in the twelve months to July 2010.
The Central Statistics Office reports that residential property prices fell
by 0.8% in the month of July. This compares with a decline of 2.1% recorded in
June and a decline of 1.3% in July of last year.
In Dublin residential property prices in July remained the same as in June
and were 11.9% lower than a year ago. Dublin house prices increased by 0.3% in
the month and were 11.6% lower compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment
prices fell by 1.9% in the month of July and were 13.7% lower when compared with
the same month of 2010.
The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding
Dublin) fell by 1.3% in July compared with a decline of 1.5% in the same month
of last year.
Prices were 12.8% lower than in July 2010.
House prices in Dublin are just under 47% lower than at their highest level
in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are now just over 54% lower than they were
in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are now almost 49% lower
than at their highest level in February 2007. The fall in the price of
residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at almost 40%.
Overall, the national index is almost 43% lower than its highest level in 2007.
Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody
House prices continue their decline -House prices declined by 0.8% in July and were down 12.5% yoy. From the peak
prices are down 43% for the country overall, with prices in Dublin down by 49%.
While there is no near-term drivers of prices rises, price/income ratio type
analyses suggest that prices are now close to “fair value”. One important caveat
though is that this is not a good gauge of short-term price movements.
Mortgage arrears trends worsen further - The final data release
this morning is the Central Bank’s mortgage arrears for June 2011.
Owner-occupied mortgage arrears (more than three months) rose to 7.2% of total
mortgages outstanding in June, up from 6.3% in Mar and 5.7% in December 2010.
Highlighting the fact that higher-value mortgages are more likely to be in
arrears, this translates into arrears worth 9.4% of the value of the
owner-occupied mortgage book (up from 8.3% in March). Recent debate in Ireland
has focused on the issue of solutions to mortgage difficulties, including the
notion of mortgage debt forgiveness. These data will intensify that debate.