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A combination of high oil prices and slower
economic growth has stalled the rise in global oil demand, with the level at a
zero increase in June, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Saudi
production was at a 30-year high in July.
The Paris-based energy watchdog of 28 industrialised countries including
Ireland, issued its monthly oil market report today which shows a sharp slowdown
in demand and an increase in supply.
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest producer, raised its output by a further
100,000 barrels per day to hit 9.8m b/d in July, the highest level for 30 years.
The kingdom has now raised production by 1.1m b/d since January, meaning that
Opec, the oil cartel, has fully compensated for the loss of Libyan output.
High prices have helped to cause absolute falls in consumption. Total demand for
oil products in Asia dropped by 500,000 b/d between May and June, dipping from
20.6m b/d to 20.1m b/d.
Highlights of IEA's Oil Market
Report
Marker crude prices
have lost $12-$15/bbl since early-August amid
growing concerns over government debt and the likely impact on the global
economy. At writing, Brent and WTI futures stood at $103/bbl and $80/bbl
respectively. This follows July's relative calm, when crude rose by $1-$3/bbl,
accompanied by modest gains in refining margins.
Global 2011 oil demand
is trimmed by 0.1 mb/d (million barrels per day) on weaker baseline and
2Q11 data, high prices and slowing economic growth. The 2012 outlook is raised
by 0.1 mb/d due to oil-fired power needs in Japan. Demand averages 89.5 mb/d in
2011 (+1.4% or 1.2 mb/d y-o-y) and 91.1 mb/d in 2012 (+1.8% or 1.6 mb/d). A
lower GDP case would cut 0.3 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d respectively from 2011 and 2012
demand.
World oil supply in
July rose by 0.6 mb/d from June, to 88.7 mb/d,
with non-OPEC production up by 0.4 mb/d. Rising Canadian production offset lower
UK production. Non-OPEC supply is now seen averaging a lower 53 mb/d in 2011 on
prolonged production outages, rising to 54 mb/d in 2012.
OPEC crude supply in
July averaged 30.05 mb/d, up by 0.1 mb/d from June. Output has regained levels close to those seen before the Libyan
crisis, although OPEC spare capacity now stands at only 3.3 mb/d. Output still
lags a �call on OPEC crude and stock change - - that averages 31 mb/d in 2H11
and 30.8 mb/d for 2012.
June OECD industry oil
inventories fell counter-seasonally by 11.8 mb to 2 678 mb, or 58.4 days of
forward demand. The surplus to the five-year
average narrowed significantly, from 18.2 mb in May to 4.7 mb in June.
Preliminary July data suggest an 18.5 mb gain in onshore OECD inventories, but
floating storage fell.
Global refinery crude
runs for 2Q2011 have been raised by 0.1 mb/d
since last month, as surging Russian June throughputs offset
weaker-than-expected Chinese runs. 3Q11 estimates are unchanged, up 2.2 mb/d
from 2Q11, at 75.9 mb/d, as stronger expected OECD runs counteract a weaker
picture for non-OECD Asia.