High and volatile world agricultural commodity prices are likely to prevail for the
rest of this year and into 2012 according to the latest analysis published
Monday in the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) biannual
Food Outlook(pdf). The Food Price Index is 37% above the May 2010 level
while the global food import bill is up 21%.
The report cites a sharp rundown on inventories and only modest overall
production increases for the majority of crops as reasons for continuing strong
The next few months will be critical in determining how the major crops will
fare this year, the report noted. Although prospects are encouraging in some
countries such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, weather conditions,
featuring too little and in some cases too much rain, could hamper maize and
wheat yields in Europe and North America.
"The general situation for agricultural crops and food commodities is tight
with world prices at stubbornly high levels, posing a threat to many low-income
food deficit countries," according to David Hallam, director of FAO's
Markets and Trade Division.
Slight drop in May food prices
International food prices, which earlier this year soared to levels seen in the
2007-8 food crisis, dropped a modest 1% in May. The FAO
Food Price Index averaged 232 points in May from a revised estimate of 235
points in April but was still 37% above May 2010.
Declines in international prices of cereals and sugar were responsible for the
slight decrease in the May index, more than offsetting increases in meat and
Current prospects for cereals in 2011 point to a record harvest of 2,315m tonnes
- - a 3.5% increase over 2010, which marked a one percentage drop over
Global wheat output is expected to be 3.2% up from last year's reduced crop,
mostly reflecting improved yields in the Russian Federation.
World production of coarse grains is set to climb 3.9%, exceeding the record set
in 2008. Most of the increase is expected from the Russian Federation and the
other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Although preliminary, world paddy production prospects are for a record harvest
of 463.8m tonnes - - a 2% increase over last year on expectations of improved
World cereals stocks at the close of the crop seasons in 2012 are put at 494m
tonnes, up only 2% from sharply reduced opening levels.
Export ban removal
Demand for cereals has also been increasing so that the 2011 crop, even at
record levels, is expected to barely meet consumption, providing support to
prices. But "the Russian Federation's announcement that it will remove its
cereals export ban from July 2011 could help relieve some of that pressure,"
according to FAO's grain analyst, Abdolreza Abbassian.
In the oilseeds market, supplies in 2011/12 may not be sufficient to meet
growing oil and meal demand, implying further reductions in global inventories.
By contrast, the global supply and demand balance for sugar points to some
improvements, supported by large anticipated production in 2010/11, which is
likely to surpass consumption for the first time since 2007/08.
Record meat prices
Regarding meat, high feed prices, disease outbreaks and depleted animal
inventories were forecast to limit the expansion of global meat production to
294m tonnes in 2011 - - only one% more than 2010. The international meat price
index hit a new record at 183 points in May 2011 and a combination of strong
import demand and limited export availability pointed to a further firming of
prices in the next few months.
Following two consecutives years of low prices, fish markets have rebounded this
year. Production in 2011 is heading to a record but prices are likely to be
supported by strong demand from the developing countries.
Food import bill
In international food trade, the global food import bill is expected to
reach a new record of $1.29trn in 2011 - - 21% more than in 2010. Low-Income
Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are
hardest-hit since they would likely have to spend respectively 27 and 30% more
on food imports than last year.
Expenditures on imported foodstuffs for vulnerable countries could account for
roughly 18% of their total import bills compared to a world average of around
Futures market under scrutiny
The report highlights some of the differences in the way investors behaved in
the price surge of 2010/11 versus 2007/08. The FAo says much has been done to improve market
transparency but more is needed according to guest experts contributing to a
Special Feature in Food Outlook.