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News : International Last Updated: Apr 20, 2011 - 5:10 AM


Markets News Tuesday: Ex-AIB chief collected €3m severance pay bonanza; Tesco makes gains from Asia
By Finfacts Team
Apr 19, 2011 - 10:55 AM

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The Central Bank of Ireland on Monday launched a special edition €20 gold proof collector coin featuring the Celtic High Cross. The coin is one of the smallest in the world at just 11 millimetres in diameter and 0.5g in weight and its design is the work of renowned Irish artist Thomas Ryan. The miniature coin pictures the Celtic High Cross in a monastic setting alongside the Irish Round Tower and bears the Irish Harp in exceptional detail. The coin was designed by Thomas Ryan who has commissioned a number of significant Irish coins including the 1990 £1 coin featuring the red deer and the 1988 Dublin Millennium 50 pence coin.

The €20 gold proof coin, which has an issue limit of 12,000 units, costs €40 per coin. Each coin is displayed in a special presentation case and is accompanied by a numbered Certificate of Authenticity specifying the quality of the coin and the limited issue. The coin can be purchased directly from the Central Bank of Ireland, Dame Street, Dublin.

Bankers' Pay: The Minister for Finance said today that the whole approach to bankers' pay will have to be re-examined.

Michael Noonan was referring to the pay bonanza of €3m provided to AIB's former managing director Colm Doherty who resigned last November as was demanded in return for the State's second bailout of the bank.

Speaking as he arrived at Government Buildings Tuesday, Noonan said the payment dated back to the time of the last government.

The Irish Times reports that Doherty received a salary of €432,000 for the period from the start of the year to early November. Under his contract, he was entitled to a termination payment of €707,000 in lieu of a year’s notice after the board of AIB was told to terminate his contract at the direction of the then minister for finance Brian Lenihan.

Doherty received a further cash payment of about €2m in lieu of a contribution to his pension. This was made under an existing agreement which entitled him to a taxable cash payment after the government capped the pensions of company executives at €5 million in 2006.

He received the payments under a contract agreed when he was promoted in November 2009 to the role of managing director, replacing chief executive Eugene Sheehy.

The Times said the Department of Finance signed off on his pay, under which Doherty took a salary cut from €633,000 to €500,000 a year, the Government cap for top bankers.

Modest market reaction to S&P negative outlook on US long-term credit rating: Davy economist, Conall Mac Coille, comments  -- "Global stock markets fell yesterday (April 18th) following news that Standard and Poor's (S&P) had revised its outlook on the US long-term credit rating to negative. The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average both fell by 1.1%, and stock markets in Europe and the UK FTSE index declined by more than 2%. The Nikkei 255 index fell by 1.2% in early trading this morning in Japan.

It has been an open question for how long the status of the US as the world's reserve currency would protect it from the funding difficulties that European countries have encountered as fiscal deficits have deteriorated. Yesterday's news has raised fears that US treasury yields may rise as Congress struggles to agree a credible fiscal consolidation plan. Indeed, the key element of S&P downward revision to the US outlook was a political judgment that there was now a significant chance that no credible fiscal plan would be put in place until after the autumn 2012 presidential and congressional elections.

So the revision to the outlook for the US sovereign to negative was not based on any economic news. Hence, the market reaction has been relatively modest. Although global stock markets declined, the US ten-year treasury finished trading at a lower yield than at the beginning of the day following a sharp spike immediately after the announcement. Similarly, the dollar pared back losses in trading following the announcement. The decline in the treasury yield was interpreted as reflecting safe haven flows. Overnight, Japanese finance minister Noda has said that he still sees US treasuries as an attractive investment. Japan is the second-largest holder of US treasuries after China. So a sharp reduction in sovereign demand for US treasuries appears unlikely.

The S&P move has added pressure on US politicians to address the fiscal deficit. Hence, the final reason that there was little reaction in the US treasury market yesterday was that the likelihood of a credible fiscal plan emerging may now be more favourable. That said, markets will now be even more focused on the likely path for the US fiscal deficit following yesterday's S&P revision. So although the initial market reaction has been modest, the potential costs of a failure by US politicians to agree a fiscal consolidation plan have been raised."

Restructure Greek Debt: Puru Saxena, chief executive at Puru Saxena Wealth Management, says Greece is already bankrupt and needs to restructure its debt:

Economic View: Further bond restructuring talk irks markets, but Ireland has its own job to do; Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, commented  -- "It has been some time since markets have taken any notice of soothing noises coming from European politicians on the sovereign debt crisis. When Merkel and Sarkozy put the notion of private sector involvement in bond restructuring on the table at the Deauville summit last October, markets moved swiftly to discount the possibility, despite reassurances that nothing will be done before 2013.

As we discussed yesterday, reports suggest that debt restructuring is being discussed behind closed doors between the Troika and Greece but yet most politicians continue to push the line that the country will continue to honour its obligations. Some, but not all; German politicians seem to coming around to the view that restructuring is an inevitability. An ally of Chancellor Merkel yesterday stated that the 'signs aren’t good' that Greece will make it through the summer without having to find a means of restructuring. These candid statements are a new departure and had an obvious impact on markets yesterday, with Greek 10 year yields rising by 69bps, Portugal by 7bps, Spain by 13bps and Ireland by 4bps.

There are important reasons why Greece is a pretty unique case, the main one being that its debt level is expected to reach 158% of GDP in 2012. We expect Irish debt levels to hit 120% in 2014, while the IMF expects Portugeuse debt levels to stand at 101% and Spain at a relatively modest 72% of GDP.

The main problem in Ireland though continues to be the primary budget deficit, which stood at 6% of GDP in 2010 and is expected to fall to 3% of GDP this year. Greece will have a modest primary surplus this year, according to the IMF (i.e. it is self-sufficient outside the payment of interest on its national debt).

As we have noted before, while the ongoing rumours about the eventual fate of Greece may have implications for Ireland in the years to come, as a precedent is set, Ireland’s focus must be on hitting a primary balance."

Tesco: The UK retailing giant today reported today results for the year to 26 February, which showed  most of the firm's 12.3% profit increase came from its Asian operations.

Total group sales were £68bn and in the UK sales expanded 5.5% to £45bn, with trading profits ahead by 3.8% to £2.5bn.

Tesco's new chief executive Philip Clarke said:
"We didn't achieve our planned growth in the year and this was only partly attributable to the deterioration in the consumer environment during the second half. We can do better and we are taking action in key areas – for example, to drive a faster rate of product innovation and to improve the sharpness of our communication to customers."

Tesco said Asian markets offer an exciting long-term growth opportunity and will be a key focus for our future international expansion, both in our established markets and in China. Having continued to invest through the downturn, we are now in an even stronger position as economic recovery continues.

Results

S&P's Downgrade is 'No Big Deal': Aadil Ebrahim, managing director at Bowen Capital Management, thinks that S&P's warning on U.S. ratings is no big deal as long as they can finance their debt internally:

US Markets

In New York Monday, the Dow fell 140 points or 1.14% to 12,202.

The S&P 500 slid 1.11% and the Nasdaq slipped 1.06%.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.2% Tuesday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 1.21%; China's Shanghai composite index dipped 1.91%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.41% and the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex index dropped 0.20% in Mumbai.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Eurozone job creation hits three-and-a-half year high in April as growth surge continues
When Finland repaid its debt; Greek restructuring gets attention; Ireland to follow?
Greenfield FDI projects in Western Europe fell 15% in 2010; Average project had capex of $35m, created 69 jobs
Sweden and Singapore top rankings of Global Information Technology Report 2010-2011; Ireland in 29th place
UK commercial property rent values fell in March
US online gambling charges put 700 Irish jobs in peril
Markets News Afternoon: Standard & Poor's downgrades outlook on US debt to negative; Ernst & Young seeks to halt loans inquiry

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 0.56% in early trading Tuesday.

The ISEQ has risen 0.38% in Dublin.

CRH is up 0.03%; Elan has risen 2.10%; Kenmare Resources has climbed 4.30%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.4268 and at £0.8764.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak.

On Monday this week, the BDI slipped 12 points or 0.93% at 1,284.

The Financial Times reported earlier in January, that Australia’s flooding and fears of ship oversupply has pushed down a gauge of the cost of hiring ships to carry coal, iron ore and other dry bulk by nearly half since October to the lowest level since the aftermath of the financial crisis. The Baltic Dry index, the widely watched measure of dry bulk charter rates, fell to 1,453, nearly half the 2,784 peak reached on October 27, 2010.

Crude oil for May 2011 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $106.10 per barrel, down $1.02 from Monday's close. In London, Brent for May delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $120.33. The North Sea benchmark accounts for two-thirds of the global market.

The margin between the US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) used on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent is over $16.

The FT said in early February that a surge in oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is delivered into America’s pipeline system, has depressed the value of the benchmark against other yardsticks. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that with “few relief valves” to cut the stock overhang in Cushing, the price dislocation “may persist for months [or years] to come”.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,495.20, down 70 cents from Monday's close.

Irish Financials: Improvement in life and pension sales; Goodbody analyst, Colm Foley, comments  - - "An article in today’s Independent regarding the recent report from actuarial consultants Milliman has shown that the rate of decline in life and pension products slowed last year to 6%, from 30% in 2009. The latest figures show that sales rose by 4% in the first quarter of this year, based on the industry benchmark Annual Premium Equivalent, which accounts for 100% of all regular premium sales, plus 10% premium.

Once-off products were the stand out performer, with sales of single premium life insurance up 58% to €518m and single premium pension products up 10% to €886m. Regular savings products were the worst hit, falling 14% followed by pensions down 11%.

Overall the figures are an improvement on previous years, yet the recovery in the life and pensions market is still some way off. We can see from the growth in once-off products there is an appetite out there for alternatives to deposit accounts. With Irish Life and Permanent preparing for a stock market flotation of its life assurance business later in the summer, the relative improvement in market conditions is welcomed. For the record we have new business life sales (APE) flat for FY11."

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