See Search Box
lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be
the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that
developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.
Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and
you are in its business news section.
The International Energy Agency, the
Paris-based watchdog of 28 industrialised nations including Ireland, today
maintained its outlook for global oil demand in 2011, while warning that prices
above $100 a barrel are beginning to hurt the global economy.
Worldwide oil consumption will rise by 1.4m barrels a day, or 1.6%, this year to
average 89.4m a day, the agency said in its in its monthly Oil Market Report. It
added that preliminary data “already show signs of oil demand slowdown,”
and global supplies are starting to look “thin” as the conflict in Libya
puts pressure on oil cartel OPEC members’ spare production capacity, the IEA
“There are real risks that a sustained $100-plus price environment will prove
incompatible with the currently expected pace of economic recovery,” the
agency said. “The surest remedy for high prices may
ultimately prove to be high prices themselves.”
Highlights of the latest OMR
Spot crude oil prices
jumped 10-15% in March, as outages from Libya and
mounting unrest in the MENA (Middle East North Africa) region offset a seasonal
drop in refinery runs. At writing, Brent futures stood near $126/bbl, with WTI
at $112/bbl. Refining margins, notably for light, distillate-rich grades,
remained weak as crude price gains outstripped those for products.
Global oil output fell
0.7 mb/d to 88.3 mb/d in March on reduced Libyan crude supply.
Non-OPEC production rose 0.2 mb/d to 53.3 mb/d, even as unrest and strikes in
Yemen, Oman, Gabon and Ivory Coast shuts in an average 0.1 mb/d of crude in
March and April. Non-OPEC 2010 supply is left at 52.8 mb/d, while stronger
Canadian production lifts the outlook by 0.1 mb/d to 53.7 mb/d for 2011.
OPEC crude supply fell
by 890 kb/d in March to 29.2 mb/d, on a near-70%
drop in Libyan output. Effective OPEC spare capacity stands at 3.91 mb/d, with
Saudi Arabia accounting for 3.2 mb/d. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’
is cut by 0.4 mb/d for 1Q11 to 29.8 mb/d. The average ‘call’ for 2011 is also
29.8 mb/d, unchanged from 2010 but 0.6 mb/d above March OPEC production.
Global product demand
remains unchanged for 2010 and 2011, at 87.9 mb/d (+2.9 mb/d year-on-year) and
89.4 mb/d (+1.4 mb/d) respectively. Higher
anticipated post-earthquake Japanese oil use for power generation and
reconstruction offsets downward non-OECD adjustments. Preliminary January and
February data suggest that high prices are already starting to dent demand
OECD industry stocks
fell by 50.8 mb to 2 676 mb, or 59.2 days, in February,
driven by sharp product draws due to seasonal refinery turnarounds. March data
point to an 8.1 mb draw in US and European inventories, while oil held in
short-term floating storage rose.
Global crude run
estimates are lowered by 270 kb/d for 2Q11,
largely due to the Japanese earthquake. Offsetting factors, in Japan and
elsewhere, could mitigate the impact of a continuing loss of about 600 kb/d of
refining capacity into 2Q. In all, global runs are seen averaging 74.5 mb/d in
2Q11, down from 74.6 mb/d in 1Q11.
IEA Oil Market Report
"Generally speaking, we are in a secular bull market for commodities and there are going to be ups and there are going to be downs and we very well may be entering one of the downs," Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak said in response to an IEA oil market report suggesting spiraling oil prices would be cured by high prices.