| Click for the Finfacts Ireland Portal Homepage |

Finfacts Business News Centre

 Irish Economy
 EU Economy
 US Economy
 UK Economy
 Global Economy
 Asia Economy


How to use our RSS feed

Follow Finfacts on Twitter

Web Finfacts

See Search Box lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.


Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and you are in its business news section.


Finfacts Homepage

Irish Share Prices

Euribor Daily Rates

Irish Economy

Global Income Per Capita

Global Cost of Living

Irish Tax - Income/Corporate

Global News

Bloomberg News

CNN Money

Cnet Tech News


Irish Independent

Irish Times

Irish Examiner

New York Times

Financial Times

Technology News




Content Management by interactivetools.com.

News : EU Economy Last Updated: Apr 7, 2011 - 6:53 AM

The German obsession with inflation and the expected ECB rate hike
By Finfacts Team
Apr 6, 2011 - 6:46 AM

Email this article
 Printer friendly page
Source: Deutsche Bank Research

The German obsession with inflation is likely to trigger a decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday to hike its benchmark rate from 1% to 1.25%.

Deutsche Bank Research says much like the Great Depression of the 1930s, which burned itself deeply into the collective memory of Americans, the hyperinflation in Germany in the wake of the First World War has shaped the consciousness of subsequent generations of Germans.

The economists say that there’s just no other way of explaining why the string of good numbers from Germany’s labour market, the prospect of unemployment falling below the 3m mark in summer and the good chances of GDP growth reaching 2 ½% this year barely attract the attention of the media or the public, whereas the inflation rate of 2.1% in February and the inflation outlook are regularly the subject of commentary.

Destatis, the German federal statistics office, said last week that it expects the harmonised consumer price index for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, to increase by 2.2% in March 2011 on March 2010. Compared with February 2011, the index rises by 0.5%.

The target rate of the ECB is "below but close to" 2%.

German producer prices rose by 6.4% in February 2011 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In January 2011 the annual rate of change was +5.7%.

The DBR economists say that of course it is important to keep close tabs on the path of inflation going forward - -  especially in view of a volatile oil price - -  and the ECB has spoken also in this context of its "strong vigilance." Yet an inflation rate of 2% or perhaps 2 ½% in the coming months largely represents a reversion to the normal pattern following the recession-induced lows of the past two years (2009: 0.3%; 2010: 1.1%), driven mainly by oil and food prices. In any event, on the assumption that food and oil prices return to normal the DB Research inflation model forecasts no dramatic surge in inflation. The economists say they are aware, though, that some of the structural changes of the past decades may have reduced the meaningfulness of the forecasts produced by such a model.

Destatis has said the consumer price index for Germany rose by 1.1% on an annual average in 2010 compared with 2009. Although, the year-on-year rate of price increase was markedly higher than in the previous year (2009: +0.4% on 2008), in 2010 it was still far below most of the annual inflation rates since the launch of the euro in 1999 when examined in a long-term comparison. Both on an annual average and for the individual months in 2010, the rate was below the threshold of 2% which is important for monetary policy.

The economists say recent rising inflation rates appear to be grist to the mill of those who regard a substantial acceleration of inflation as inevitable in view of skyrocketing sovereign debt and ballooning central bank balance sheets in the industrial countries. However, the economists  believe these arguments ignore the decrease in the credit multipliers, the changed role of central banks and the absence of money illusion ( Medium term inflation risks – how much of a threat are they? June 2009; pdf).

DBR says a crucial factor for the price climate is not so much the short-term repercussions of volatile energy and food prices on the headline inflation rate - -  especially since a jump in the oil price to say $100 per barrel on a permanent basis, disappears from the year-on-year rate of change after twelve months - - but rather the extent to which these effects feed through to the core rate (which excludes energy and food).

In a nutshell: whether they result in second-round effects. The economists say that over the past decade there was a roughly 50% decline in the impact of energy prices on the core rate. The food price effect decreased even more. In addition, the time needed for energy and food prices to feed through to the core rate has lengthened. This is also evident in the generally smaller correlation between headline inflation and the core rate.

SEE Page 6 of report: GDP growth and inflation – perception problems (pdf)

ECB Rate Rise "Almost a Certainty"

Related Articles
Related Articles

© Copyright 2011 by Finfacts.com

Top of Page

EU Economy
Latest Headlines
Spain's strong recovery to slow in the next few years
Italy's Mezzogiorno is Achilles' heel of Euro Area - lowest birth rate since 1862
Euro Area GDP grows at weak 0.3% in Q2 2015
German GDP up 0.4% in Q2 2015; France's GDP stagnates
Germany's Surplus: Lots of critics; Credible solutions scarce
Euro Area industrial production dips in June and May after a flat April
Greece faces two years of recession according to EU officials
High EU youth unemployment rate not as bad as it seems
Eurozone retail PMI surges to highest since January 2011
ECB monetary policy still tight for Southern Europe
German exports fell in June — surplus at record; Exports up 13.7% year-on-year
Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to expand in July
Weak euro unlikely to have significant impact on Euro Area growth
Is Euro Area Ireland's top trading partner?: EU28 is overwhelmingly UK's
German car firms boost exports from Spain, UK, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania
Flash Eurozone manufacturing/ services PMI close to four-year high despite Greek crisis
Krugman calls euro a Roach Motel; Hotel California gets 1-star grade
Greece & Euro Crisis: July 2015 articles from Finfacts
Greece and other poor countries in Euro Area will not become rich
Euro Area manufacturing/ services PMI hits four-year high in June
Western European car market: Recovery continues
Greece could become a failed state like Venezuela
Multinational companies pay on average 30% less tax than domestic competitors in EU
EU's list of 30 tax havens omits the biggest 4 in Europe
China to invest in Juncker's European investment fund
Greek talks collapse; Game theorists gambling with future — Germany's vice-chancellor
German exports and industrial production in strong rises in April
Tackling Inequality: Scandinavian countries have the most successful welfare systems in Europe
Eurozone unemployment fell by 130,000 in April 2015 — down 849,000 in 12 months
Eurozone service sector business activity slowed during May
German 2015 GDP forecast cut; Jobless level at 24-year low
Eurozone manufacturing in modest acceleration in May
FDI into Europe at record in 2014; UK on top: Germany location for future investment
Eurozone economy loses growth momentum; Jobs growth rises
Athens leak suggests Juncker has plan for Greece
Draghi will not end QE early but warns of risks
Eurozone grows faster than US and UK in Q1 2015
German GDP at slower pace, France faster in Q1 2015
Germany may cut income tax; Germans still shun risky investments
Germany had record exports and imports in March 2015