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News : Irish Economy Last Updated: Feb 3, 2011 - 6:58 AM


Irish Live Register 2011: Seasonally-adjusted numbers fell 6,900 to 442,677; Non-nationals dipped 2,868 to 78,527
By Finfacts Team
Feb 2, 2011 - 11:27 AM

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Source: CSO

Irish Live Register 2011: In January 2011 there were 442,677 people signing on the Live Register. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said today that while the number of people on the Live Register did increase over the month the level of increase (+5,598) was less than the increase recorded in the month to January in the previous 3 years. As a result, on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a monthly decrease of 6,900 on the Live Register in January 2011. This follows a minor increase in December 2010 which had been the first month to record a seasonally adjusted increase since August 2010. The number of non-nationals dipped 2,868 to 78,527, in the month.

The CSO said there was an increase of 5,741 (+1.3%) over the year and it compares with an increase of 13,484 (+3.2%) in the year to December 2010 and an increase of 110,664 (+33.9%) in the year to January 2010. The January 2011 figures were the lowest for January in 3 years.

January of 2009 represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September.

The total fell 3,000 in October; rose 900 in November and another 3,300 were added in December, to bring the end 2009 total to 426,700. The total fell by 500 in April 2010 and rose to a record 439,100 in May.

Other features include:

  • There was a monthly decrease of 6,400 males and 600 females in the seasonally adjusted series in January. Since the seasonally adjusted series peaked in August 2010 the decrease has been predominantly male, while females have remained relatively constant.

  • On an unadjusted basis the number of males on the Live Register has risen only marginally since January 2010 (+0.1%) while the number of females has increased by 3.7%. The situation one year previously i.e. the year to January 2010, showed far more significant increases for both males (+32.3%) and females (+37.2%).

  • The number casual and part-time workers on the Live Register increased over the year by 6,369 (+8.3%) to 83,232.

  • The standardised unemployment rate in January was 13.4%, down from 13.6% in December. This compares with 13.6% in the third quarter of 2010, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey and an annual average of 13.3% for 2010.

The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. The CSO says it includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for July to September 2010, is 288,500 persons unemployed.

Live Register schemes analysis

In January there were 125,696 Jobseekers Benefit (JB) claimants on the Live Register an annual decrease of 42,152 (-25.1%). On an annual basis the number of JB claimants has been falling since February 2010. The total number of JB claimants has fallen by 71,292 or 36.2% since a peak of 196,988 recorded in July 2009.

The number of Jobseekers Allowance (JA) applicants in January was 289,583 an increase of 40,447 over the year (16.2%). The level of annual increase in the number of JA applications has been slowing, both in nominal and proportional terms since the second half of 2009 when increases were over 100,000.

The number of “Other Registrants” on the Live Register increased by 7,446 (+37.3%) in the year to January 2011. The increase in JA applicants and “Other Registrants” combined more than offset the fall in JB claimants yielding the overall increase in the Live Register over the year.

For both males and females the fall in the number JB claimants was offset by an increase of a similar order of magnitude in the number of JA applicants. However a slight difference can be seen between persons aged under 25 compared with those aged 25 or over. Among persons aged under 25 the decrease in JB claimants (-5,776) was greater than the increase in JA claimants (+2,045) meaning the total number of people on the Live Register aged under 25 fell by nearly 3,700 over the year. However, for persons aged 25 or over the increase in JA applicants and “Other Registrants” more than offset the decrease in JB claimants meaning the total number of persons aged 25 or over on the Live Register increased by 9,414 (+2.7%) over the year.

The CSO said that while the net change in the Live Register over the month was 5,598 there were 46,115 new registrants on the Live Register in January which compares with 42,615 in the previous month. New registrants consisted of 24,408 JB claims (52.9%), 19,527 JA applications (42.3%) and 2,180 other registrants (4.7%). On average 6,719 male and 4,810 female new registrants joined the Live Register each week in January. By comparison, in January 2010, 7,871 male and 4,514 female new registrants joined the Live Register each week. The difference between the net change in the Live Register and the number of new claimants is account for by closed claims and the movement of people between schemes.

Live Register regional analysis

Annual increases in the Live Register were recorded in 6 of the 8 NUTS 3 regions. The largest percentage increase was in the Midland region (+4.5%), followed by the Mid-East region (+3.4%). Up to December 2010 there had been annual increases recorded for all 8 regions.

Live Register occupational groups

Craft and related (26.1%) was the largest occupational group on the Live Register in January, followed by Plant and machine operatives (16.0%). In January 2010 Craft and related (27.4%) and Plant and machine operatives (16.1%) were also the largest occupational groups.

In the year to January 2011 four occupational groups showed Live Register increases. The largest percentage increase was in the Other occupation group (+9.8%), while the next largest increases were in the Personal and protective service (+7.1%) and Sales (+5.9%) groups. The largest percentage decrease was in the Managers and administrators group (-6.3%).

Live Register duration of continuous registration

In January 282,123 (63.7%) of all claimants on the Live Register were short term claimants. The comparable figure for January 2010 was 333,979 (76.4%). The annual fall of 51,856 in the number of short-term claimants consisted of a decrease of 41,824 in the number of male short term claimants and a decrease of 10,032 in female short term claimants.

In the year to January 2011 the number of long term male claimants increased by 42,179 (+55.4%), while the comparable increase for females was 15,418 (+57.4%).

Live Register casual and part-time workers

There were 83,232 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January, which represents 18.8% of the total Live Register. This compares with 17.6% one year earlier when there were 76,863 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register.

In the year to January 2011 the number of casual and part-time workers increased by 6,369 (+8.3%), with the number of males increasing by 3,374 (+8.3%) and the number of females increasing by 2,995 (+8.3%).

Live Register nationality groupings

In January Irish Nationals accounted for 82.3% (364,150) of the number of persons on the Live Register. Of the 78,527 non-Irish nationals, the largest constituent group on the Live Register continued to be nationals from the EU15 to EU27 States (43,619), followed by the UK (18,078).

In the year to January 2011 the number of Irish nationals on the Live Register increased by 8,609 (+2.4%), while the number of non-Irish nationals decreased by 2,868 (-3.5%).

Commenting on the CSO figures, IBEC senior economist Reetta Suonperä said: The January reduction in Live Register claimants of 6,900 is the biggest drop we have seen so far. Since September, the number of claimants has fallen on average by almost 2,200 in each month.

“Following a change to the seasonal adjustment methodology, the December increase of 5,200 was revised down to just 400. This is more reflective of the underlying trend in the labour market. In any case we had expected a large portion of the increase to be reversed in January, since it was caused by a slowdown in the numbers leaving the Live Register, not an increase in new claimants.

“Crucially, the number of new claimants to the Live Register was about 25% less than in January 2010. Separate data from the Department of Enterprise show that redundancies in January were down 26% year-on-year, a further indication that the flow of job losses is slowing. Although some sectors such as construction will continue to lose jobs during 2011, overall the situation in the labour market is stabilising and unemployment is now nearing its peak,”

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