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World energy growth over the next
20 years, is
expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and
Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate,
according to oil giant BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook
2030 (pdf). Renewable power sources will outpace oil as global energy demand
surges nearly 40%. Global carbon emissions are
forecast to peak just after 2020, but BP says they will still be 20% above 2005
Most of the expected rise in energy demand will come
from emerging economies. These non-OECD countries (Organization of Economic
Co-operation and Development), which will account for 93% of the demand growth,
will boost their share of demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
Over the same period, energy
intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of
economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid
efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under
According to the report, diversification of energy
sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro
and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest
source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to
2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables
(solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to
increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing
fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market
share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates.
Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is
projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand
peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly
back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9%
of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s
forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years
of producing what it terms it definitive historical data
in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In launching the BP Energy
Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said:
“The issues covered in this document are huge ones –
the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy,
sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I
believe one of our responsibilities is to share the
information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and
now on climate change.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is
secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a
global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet
that aspiration over the next two decades, we need
smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we
need in a manageable way -- without inhibiting
economic development or jeopardising the improvements in
living standards now being experienced by billions of
Dudley added: “I need to emphasize that the BP Energy
Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a
proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we
believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the
evidence. For example, we are not as optimistic as
others about progress in reducing carbon emissions.
But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you
probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for
more action from governments, including the wide
application of a carbon price. Our base case assumes
that countries continue to make some progress on
addressing climate change, based on the current and
expected level of political commitment. But overall, for
me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68% higher by 2030 averaging 2.6%
per year growth
OECD (comprising 34 mainly developed countries
including Ireland) growth averages 0.3% per
year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a
declining trend of -0.2% per year.
Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The
region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be
back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period,
coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to
become the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a
position not seen since 1977.
The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil,
excluding bio-fuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural
gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the
projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2%
per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil
excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks
being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly,
increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than
6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and
nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total
Since 1900 the world’s population has more than quadrupled, real income
(as measured by Gross Domestic Product) has grown by a factor of 25, and
primary energy consumption by a factor of 23. “The modern energy economy has
been shaped by the trends of industrialisation, urbanisation, motorisation
and rising income levels,” said Christof Rühl, Chief Economist at BP.
Energy per unit of income as measured by GDP continues to fall, and at
an accelerating rate. “This is true in our outlook to 2030 not only for the
global average, but for almost all of the key countries and regions. The
combination of energy efficiency gains and a long-term structural shift
towards less energy intensive activities as economies develop underpins this
trend,” said Rühl.
Coal’s recent gains in market share, on the back of rapid
industrialisation in China and India in particular, are reversed by 2030,
with all three fossil fuels converging on market shares around 27%.
Biofuels production is expected to reach 6.7 mmbpd by 2030 from 1.8
mmbpd in 2010 and will contribute 125% of net non-OPEC supply growth over
the next 20 years.
In BP’s policy case “global emissions peak just after 2020, but will
still be 20% above 2005 levels. The emissions path is still expected to be
well above the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario , indicating how
much more effort will be required after 2030 to put the world onto a ‘safe’
path,” said Rühl.
BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC in an interview that the deal the group has struck with Rosneft will not have any impact on any of the settlements it is making in the US after the Gulf Coast oil spill. TNK-BP has been a very successful joint venture in Russia, Dudley said, adding that this deal will expand the scope of that, Jan 17, 2011: