The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis says world trade and industrial production momentum has been falling
since January 2010.
World trade volume: Based on preliminary data, world trade volume grew by
0.5% in October from the previous month, following an upwardly revised decrease
of 0.4% in September. Global import volumes were nearly flat, but export volumes
went up by 1.0%. October’s regional patterns are rather diverse. Import growth
was highest in emerging Asia.
United States imports declined for a second consecutive month,
while its exports shot up by 3.5%. In Latin America both imports and exports
declined heavily, by 4% to 5%.
The CPB says monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on
‘momentum’ is therefore preferable. Momentum is defined as the change in the
three months average up to the current month relative to the average of the
preceding three months period.
Trade momentum was 0.0% in
October. It has been decreasing steadily since January, when it reached 6.1%.
Third quarter world trade growth has
been revised down from 0.9% to 0.3% (non-annualised) using new information on
trade prices in major Asian and Latin American countries. As a result, volume
estimates for these countries turn out to be considerably lower over the last
couple of months.
World industrial production: On the basis of preliminary
data, world industrial production increased by 0.6% in October, following an
upwardly revised decrease of 0.1% in September.
In Japan, industrial production sank by 2.0%, the fifth
consecutive monthly decline. In Asia’s emerging economies however, production
rose by 1.5%. Production growth in the Eurozone also came in strong at 1.1%,
offsetting September’s decline. At the global level, industrial production
momentum was 0.5% in October (non-annualised). Momentum has been continually
declining since January, when it was 3.3%.
A methodological note on the world trade series of the monitor can be