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News : Global Economy Last Updated: Dec 23, 2010 - 12:11 PM

World trade and industrial production momentum has been falling since January 2010
By Finfacts Team
Dec 23, 2010 - 12:06 PM

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The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis says world trade and industrial production momentum has been falling since January 2010.

World trade volume: Based on preliminary data, world trade volume grew by 0.5% in October from the previous month, following an upwardly revised decrease of 0.4% in September. Global import volumes were nearly flat, but export volumes went up by 1.0%. October’s regional patterns are rather diverse. Import growth was highest in emerging Asia.

United States imports declined for a second consecutive month, while its exports shot up by 3.5%. In Latin America both imports and exports declined heavily, by 4% to 5%.

The CPB says monthly trade figures are volatile and focus on ‘momentum’ is therefore preferable. Momentum is defined as the change in the three months average up to the current month relative to the average of the preceding three months period.

Trade momentum was  0.0% in October. It has been decreasing steadily since January, when it reached 6.1%.

Third quarter world trade growth has been revised down from 0.9% to 0.3% (non-annualised) using new information on trade prices in major Asian and Latin American countries. As a result, volume estimates for these countries turn out to be considerably lower over the last couple of months.

World industrial production: On the basis of preliminary data, world industrial production increased by 0.6% in October, following an upwardly revised decrease of 0.1% in September.

In Japan, industrial production sank by 2.0%, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. In Asia’s emerging economies however, production rose by 1.5%. Production growth in the Eurozone also came in strong at 1.1%, offsetting September’s decline. At the global level, industrial production momentum was 0.5% in October (non-annualised). Momentum has been continually declining since January, when it was 3.3%.

The world-trade database (Excel-file)

A methodological note on the world trade series of the monitor can be downloaded here

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