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2011: country by country,
just published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, predicts that growth trends
in the New Year will diverge between the rich and developing world. Global
growth will slow as fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and emerging markets will
continue, to a large extent, to shrug off the 2008-09 economic crisis. Eritrea,
the former Italian colony, which won independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a
long bloody war, is set to become the world's top growth leader in 2011.
Meanwhile, the developed world will remain
preoccupied with sluggish growth, high employment and rising debt burdens.
Anjalika Bardalai, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Country Report
Manager and the Editor of 2011: country by country, comments: "Balance will be a defining theme of the global economic
landscape in 2011. Scores of governments will be preoccupied with trying to get
the balance right between fiscal consolidation and economic growth. Meanwhile,
many emerging markets will struggle to balance capital inflows, exchange-rate
management and inflationary pressures."
Downside risks to economic stability also abound.
‑ The possibility of a double-dip global
‑ The threat of sovereign defaults in several countries, notably in the euro
‑ Deflationary pressures in several key developed economies
‑ New asset bubbles in emerging markets
‑ A rise in social unrest, given slowing economic growth and fiscal
austerity measures in many countries
2011: country by country,
the well-established annual forecasting guide from the Economist Intelligence
Unit, contains a concise assessment of the political and economic prospects for
the year ahead for almost 200 countries, together with key economic indicators
and a summary of forecast numbers.
Highlights in the 2011 edition include:
World GDP growth (using market
exchange-rate weights) will slow to 2.5%,
compared with 3.5% in 2010...
Eritrea will overtake Qatar as the world's fastest-growing economy,
as production begins at the country's first operational goldmine.
The world's worst-performing
economies will be concentrated in western Europe,
which accounts for 12 of the world's 20 slowest-growing economies in 2011.
Eurozone interest rates will remain at a
record-low 1%, but the European Central Bank could face growing
pressure to implement unorthodox policy measures to boost growth.
Chile will continue to stand
out as the most stable and resilient economy in Latin America.
Post-earthquake reconstruction will drive growth.
Eleven out of the 20
fastest-growing economies will be in Sub-Saharan Africa,
but growth in the region will continue to be driven by exploitation of
Although still strong, growth in
China will be the slowest since 2001. Nonetheless, China will
remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
World growth league
(Real GDP growth, %)
Papua New Guinea
São Tome and Príncipe
United States of America
Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
2011: country by country is available from the Economist Intelligence Unit
online store for £395; US$635. A single article costs $32.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist & head of global economic research at JPMorgan, sees broad-based global growth in 2011, but inflationary risks also exist. He tells CNBC's Karen Tso & Bernard Lo more:
Could there be a global economic boom in 2011? Edward Yardeni, Yardeni Research president discusses: