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News : Global Economy Last Updated: Dec 9, 2010 - 4:19:43 AM


Global job prospects strongest in India/ China; US most optimistic in 3 years; Europe mixed as Germany strengthens; Ireland stable
By Finfacts Team
Dec 8, 2010 - 2:23:07 AM

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Results for the first quarter 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released on Tuesday by Manpower Inc., a US headquartered global recruitment firm, suggest a more positive start to the new year for the global labour market. Prospects are strongest in India and China; US data reveals highest optimism in 3 years; European forecasts remain mixed as the German job market continues to strengthen and Ireland remains stable with some optimism on prospects beyond Q1.

Data reveals improved hiring expectations from 12 months ago in 28 of 39 countries and territories, including the G-7 countries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, where hiring plans are stable or improved from both the fourth quarter of 2010 and this time last year. Despite continued mixed results across Europe, German employers are reporting their strongest hiring plans since early 2008. Meanwhile, hiring intentions among US employers remain modest but signal the most optimistic first-quarter outlook in three years. Job prospects continue to be robust across the Asia Pacific region with Chinese and Indian employers reporting the most optimistic hiring intentions globally.

"The stability and incremental improvement reflected in the data for the G-7 countries indicates progress toward recovery for the global labour market. In fact, Net Employment Outlooks for the G7 countries are all in positive territory for the first time since the third quarter of 2008," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, chairman and CEO of Manpower. "Nonetheless, the global market still has a long way to go as employers are not yet confident enough to hire for permanent positions on any noteworthy scale. With workforces stretched so thin in recovering markets, we're seeing companies experience a choke point as demand picks up—at this point companies are either hiring very selectively and/or increasing their use of contingent labour. The employment picture is very different in the Asia Pacific market where employers are feeling the talent crunch in the face of strong demand and are working hard to recruit and retain employees."

The Manpower survey shows employers in 32 of 39 countries and territories expect varying degrees of positive hiring activity in the first three months of the year, with those in India, China, Taiwan, Brazil, Turkey and Singapore reporting the strongest hiring plans. In contrast, employers in Greece, the Czech Republic, Austria, Ireland, Spain and Romania report the weakest and only negative forecasts globally. Employers in Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey were surveyed for the first time this quarter.

Employer hiring plans continue to be mixed across the 21 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, with positive activity expected in 14 countries. While Net Employment Outlooks weakened in 11 countries from three months ago, a year-over-year comparison reveals stronger Outlooks in 12 countries. Hiring activity in the EMEA region is expected to be strongest in Turkey, Germany and Sweden and weakest in Greece and the Czech Republic. The strong hiring pace anticipated in Turkey is due in part to demand in the Construction sector where 45% of employers intend to add staff.

"The bright spot in Europe continues to be Germany, where the unemployment rate is at its lowest in 18 years and engineers and financial professionals continue to be in high demand. In fact, the hiring forecast from Finance and Business Services employers is the strongest first-quarter outlook since we began surveying the German market in 2003," said Joerres. "In contrast, employer hiring confidence in the Greek and Spanish markets continues to erode. However, data for Italy shows improved hiring expectations for the third consecutive quarter resulting in the first positive forecast from Italian employers in more than two years."

Employer hiring expectations continue to be strong in the Asia Pacific region where job prospects improve year-over-year in all eight countries and territories surveyed. Compared to three months ago, job prospects are improved or remain stable in six countries and territories. Regional hiring plans continue to be strongest in India, China and Taiwan and weakest in Japan, despite a cautiously optimistic forecast from employers.

"In India and China, employer demand remains high; individuals with in-demand skills continue to be poached by rival firms making engagement and retention strategies a critical priority for both foreign and domestic organizations," said Joerres. "Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers, particularly those in textiles, are being challenged with worker shortages, rapidly rising wages and competition from other low-cost countries."

Across the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas region, forecasts from employers are stronger in comparison to the first quarter of 2010 in all countries except Guatemala and mixed compared to three months ago. However, all countries in the region should experience generally positive hiring activity in the quarter ahead. Regional hiring plans are most optimistic in Brazil and Peru and least optimistic in Guatemala and the US, although the report from US employers has improved slightly from both three months ago and last year at this time.

"Seasonally adjusted data for the United States indicates the most optimistic first-quarter hiring sentiment in three years; yet 73% of employers indicate they will keep staff levels unchanged," said Joerres. "So while we're seeing positive signals in the data, only time will tell if we've reached the inflection point in the US labour market recovery. On the other hand, the enthusiasm in the Brazilian market continues to be bolstered by the Services sector where over half of employers are telling us they will increase their payrolls in the next three months. In Mexico and Argentina, opportunities for job seekers should be much improved compared to 12 months ago, particularly in the Mexican Manufacturing sector where employer hiring intentions remain the most optimistic in eight years."

“There are some good signs in Europe, France is stable, hopefully. Germany is steaming ahead…export demand goods absolutely pumping and we can’t see any signs that Germany is going to slow down…the UK (is a) bit of a problem,” David Arkless from Manpower told CNBC on the European jobs market:

Ireland

Manpower Ireland said Irish employers anticipate the weak hiring pace will continue over the next quarter. The Net Employment Outlook stands at -3% for Quarter 1 2011, remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and improving by 8%age points year-over-year.

The Net Employment Outlook is calculated by taking the%age of employers anticipating an increase in total employment (4%) and subtracting from this the%age expecting to see a decrease (9%). This figure of -5% is then adjusted to remove any seasonal variations in the data. Once seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook stands at -3%.

Krissie Davies, Managing Director of Manpower Ireland, comments: “Throughout 2010, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey has revealed continually improving hiring plans in Ireland. Yet, the Net Employment Outlook of -3% for the upcoming quarter, is relatively stable to the fourth-quarter forecast and indicates the uncertainty that Irish employers are facing in the current National and European market climates. A weakened first quarter Outlook in 10 of the 17 European countries surveyed, compared to three months ago, reveals that the employment markets have yet to stabilise across Europe. Nonetheless, year-over-year comparisons of the national, regional and sector results, over the last three quarters, reveal a sustained improvement of the employment market condition in Ireland”.

Regional results reveal a weak hiring climate as employers in four of the five Irish regions report negative hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter. The most positive hiring plans are reported by employers in the Dublin and Leinster regions while employers in the Ulster region report the weakest Outlook of the five regions surveyed. Quarter-over-quarter the Net Employment Outlook has weakened in three regions however the hiring intentions improve in four regions year-over-year.

The Outlook in the majority of the 11 industry sectors surveyed reveals downbeat hiring plans for the quarter ahead but a noteworthy and sustained improvement is reported year-over-year as the Outlook strengthens in 10 of 11 industry sectors. The most optimistic forecasts are reported by employers in the Public & Social and Manufacturing sectors while the weakest hiring intentions are reported by employers in the Mining & Quarrying, Electricity, Gas & Water and Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sectors.

Krissie Davies says: “Unsatisfied employees started to look for new work opportunities from mid-year to date, as the pressure lessened on the employment market and the use of social media for professional networking increased across the country. While it is likely that people will hold on to their current position during the first months of 2011, the trend is likely to strengthen as more job seekers are moving abroad for work. Strong management coupled with transparent corporate communication will remain essential to navigate through the coming year. They will enable businesses to efficiently drive their organisation, retain talented and hard-working employees while providing a positive experience to temporary workers who could turn into permanent hires.”

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