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The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased
0.5% in October to 111.3 (2004=100), following a 0.5% increase in September, and
a 0.1% increase in August.
Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at the Conference Board said: “The LEI remains
on an upward trend, suggesting the modest economic expansion will continue in
the near term. The LEI’s growth has been slowing this year, but gains in the
financial components helped its pickup in October.”
Ken Goldstein, economist, added: “The economy is slow, but latest data on the
LEI suggest that change may be around the corner. Expect modest holiday sales,
driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators
are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.”
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) . increased 0.1% in October to 101.5
(2004=100), following no change in September, and no change in August. The
Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.1% in October to 108.7 (2004=100),
following a 0.5% increase in September, and a 0.1% increase in August.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index include:
- Average weekly hours, manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
- Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance
- Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods
- Building permits, new private housing units
- Stock prices, 500 common stocks
- Money supply, M2
- Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
- Index of consumer expectations
