Despite the global recession, the world economy will grow faster in the
second decade (2010-2020) of the 21st century than it did in the first, the
Conference Board reported on Wednesday. Developed countries will account for
less than 1% of the annual global growth rate.
The private New York based business and economics research organisation said
the global economy will grow at 4.4% from 2010-2020, about 0.7 of a percentage
point faster than 2000-2010 and 0.3 of a percentage point faster than 2000-2008,
according to the second edition of
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, providing projections of
output growth for 2011, 2011-2015, and 2015-2020 for the global economy, the
economies of 11 major regions, aggregated advanced economies, and aggregated
emerging and developing economies.
Advanced/developed economies will account for less than 1% percentage point
of global growth from 2010-2020, while 3.4% percentage points will come from
emerging economies. Growth in emerging and developing economies in 2010-2020
will be more than three times faster than growth in advanced economies.
Between 2000 and 2020, the United States will have lost 8 percentage points
in global output (from 23% to 15%), and the original 15 members of the European
Union will have lost as much as 10 percentage points (23% to 13%).
China's share in global output doubled from 8% in 2000 to 16% in 2010, and
will rise to 24% in 2020. India will also double its share of global output
(from 4% in 2000 to 8% in 2020), but its overall impact on global growth is much
smaller than China's.
“The emerging world’s catch-up potential is unlikely to slacken before the
end of the decade,” said Bart van Ark, senior vice president and chief
economist of the Conference Board. “Yet while emerging economies are clearly
driving global growth, they also host its biggest downside risk. For example,
the emergence of uncontrolled inflation or a mishandling of corrections to
overvalued assets in China or India could reduce global growth for 2010-2020 by
as much as 2% percentage points.”
Among other key findings:
- China may have a larger GDP (PPP-converted) than the United States by
2012.
- India will double its share of global output between 2000 and 2020, but
its overall impact on global growth remains much smaller than China’s.
- Western Europe (the original 15 EU member states) will stay at modest
1.5% growth in 2011. Germany, the Nordic countries and Benelux will perform
at the higher end (above 2%); the United Kingdom and France will be in the
middle range (1.5-2%); most of Southern Europe and Ireland will see growth
of less than 1% or may even contract.
- Growth in China will moderate only slightly going into 2011. India will
add almost a full percentage point to its growth rate.
