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Asia Economy Last Updated: Sep 13, 2010 - 7:19:48 AM


Markets News Friday: China posts third straight monthly trade surplus above $20bn; Japan revises up Q2 2010 growth
By Finfacts Team
Sep 10, 2010 - 10:16:11 AM

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Chinese President Hu Jintao waves to students and teachers at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, Sept. 9, 2010. Hu visited the Renmin University of China in Beijing and its affiliated high school, ahead of the Teachers' Day that fell on Friday. Photo: Xinhua

China/Japan: China today reported a third straight trade surplus of more than $20bn in August even as imports jumped.

Exports rose 34.4% and imports gained 35.2% compared with the same month in 2009, resulting in a a $20.03 bin surplus, a customs bureau report (GAC) showed today.

China's foreign trade in the first eight months totaled US$1.88trn, a year-on-year increase of 40%, the GAC said in a statement.

The trade surplus for the first eight months of the year totaled $103.9bn, down 14.6% from the same period last year, it said.

Trade with the European Union, China's largest trade partner, jumped 36.2% year on year to $305.81bn in the January-August period, the GAC said.

Trade with the United States climbed 32% to $242.61bn during the period while that with Japan rose 34.8% to hit $186.89bn.

Meanwhile, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) increased a revised 0.4% in the second quarter from the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said in a report on Friday.

The revised rate is an annualised rate of 1.5% in the April-June period, up from a 0.4% initially reported last month.

The difference is being credited to higher corporate capital investment, however economists are forecasting the economy will contract due to the yen's strength which continues to however around 15-year highs against the US dollar.

Ireland's banking sector was in focus Thursday after the government announced plans to split Anglo Irish Bank Wednesday. James Stewart from North Square Blue Oak has analysis:

Economic View: Assessing debt sustainability in Ireland; Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments - - "Ireland faces a formidable, but not unassailable task in restoring order to its public finances over the next few years. Including the costs associated with banking recapitalisations, the budget deficit will be 26% of GDP in 2010 (11.3% underlying), but this will represent a once-off spike, with the deficit expected to fall to 9.3% in 2011. We believe that while the banking costs are enormous in the context of banking crises around the world over the last forty years, they do not threaten the solvency of the Irish sovereign. Including costs associated with the banking sector, we estimate the gross debt position will increase to 105% by 2013.

By that time, assuming interest rates on upcoming debt issuance is 6%, the interest burden will rise to 4% of GDP, well below levels seen in the 1980s. For any country to stabilise its debt level, assuming a primary balance (budget balance excluding interest payments), its sustainable real growth rate must be higher than its real interest costs. Current interest rates are high, relative to trend economic growth rates in Ireland (c.3%). Therefore, it is imperative that the current high interest rates on Irish government bond issuance are reduced. This can be done by providing clarity on the banking sector issues and delivering a budget in December that, at a minimum, sticks to the targets that have been set out with the European Commission. It will not be easy, but similar size fiscal consolidations have been completed successfully in the past.

The Irish sovereign does not have any near-term liquidity concerns. Its average maturity stands at 7 years, in line with the Eurozone average. Funding is fully complete up to Q2 2011, while rollover risks in 2011 are minimal given that refinancing will only amount to 7.5% of GNP, relative to a euro-area average of 14%. The c.€30bn of redemptions of the Irish banks in September has provided additional concerns for the market recently, given the close link between the sovereign and the banks. c.€87bn in eligible collateral should help to smooth the funding profile this month. Some further clarity has been provided on the issue of Anglo Irish Bank this week, while the all-important final cost will be published in October."

As Japan unveils a new stimulus package, Richard Yetsenga, global head of emerging market FX Strategy at HSBC, says it is unlikely to make a marked difference. He speaks to CNBC's Chloe Cho about whether spending more money will really help the economy:

Economy passes minor milestone as annual CPI inflation turns positive in August: Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, comments  -- "On an annual basis, CPI inflation turned positive for the first time since December 2008, but pressure from underlying consumer demand played a relatively small part in the rise. Recent increases in mortgage interest rates accounted for a significant chunk, with the mortgage interest component of the CPI showing a 10% month-on-month gain, and a 24% gain over the last 12 months. Instead of reflecting increased demand, rising mortgage costs have the potential to undermine consumer buying power.

Another exceptional factor goading on inflation was the end of the summer sales, which helps account for the 3.7% monthly increase in clothing and footwear prices. Food and energy prices, which are dependent on international markets, were steady on the month, giving core inflation (with food, energy and mortgages stripped out) of 0.28% month-on-month. This is well below the headline 0.7%, but does reflect moderate inflation consistent with the return to economic growth.

Ireland escaped the food price rises which helped UK inflation to a 3.1% annual rate in July. The Bank of England voted again yesterday to maintain rates at 0.5%, ignoring its inflation target in favour of a wait-and-see approach that betrays unease about UK growth prospects and core price pressure. German inflation, also released yesterday, rose just 0.1% in the month to August. If Irish core inflation holds at yesterday's moderate level, it could indicate an economy further down the adjustment road than many of its peers."

Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

US Markets

In New York Thursday, the Dow rose 28 points or 0.27% to 10,415.

The S&P 500 rose 0.48% and the Nasdaq gained 0.43%.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3% Friday after Japan boosted its estimate for second-quarter economic growth.

The Nikkei 225 added 1.55%; China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.26%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.48% and India's Sensex Index advanced 0.71%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Central Bank/ Financial Regulator report shows Quinn Insurance posted a loss of €788.4m in 2009
Switzerland tops rankings in Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011; Ireland slips to 29th rank behind Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Malaysia
Trichet calls for ‘a quantum leap’ on Eurozone governance rules; Key Basel meeting to agree new bank capital reserve rules
France has run a budget deficit for over 35 years; Debt/GDP ratio over 80% from 30% in the mid-1970s
Markets News Afternoon: State borrowing costs fall; US company Schering-Plough to cut 160 jobs
US trade deficit contracted sharply in July posting its biggest drop in 17 months
Irish consumer prices rise by 0.2% in the year to August --deflation ends
World economic recovery may be slowing faster than previously anticipated says the OECD

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is down 0.40% Friday.

The ISEQ has risen 0.06% in Dublin.

CRH is up 0.23%; Elan has added 0.25%; AIB  has slid 1.60%; BoI fell 2.82%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.2744 and at £0.8253.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Thursday this week, the BDI rose 13 points or 0.44% to 2,988.

Crude oil for October 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $75.58 barrel, up $1.33 from Thursday's close. In London, Brent for October delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $77.51.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,247.70, up $3.70 from Thursday's close.

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