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Markets News Friday: China posts third straight monthly trade surplus above $20bn; Japan revises up Q2 2010 growth
By Finfacts Team
Sep 10, 2010 - 10:16:11 AM
Chinese President Hu Jintao waves to students and teachers at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, Sept. 9, 2010. Hu visited the Renmin University of China in Beijing and its affiliated high school, ahead of the Teachers' Day that fell on Friday. Photo: Xinhua
China/Japan: China today reported a third straight trade
surplus of more than $20bn in August even as imports jumped.
Exports rose 34.4% and imports gained 35.2%
compared with the same month in 2009, resulting in a a $20.03
bin surplus, a customs bureau report (GAC) showed today.
China's foreign trade in the
first eight months totaled US$1.88trn, a
year-on-year increase of 40%, the GAC said in a statement.
The trade surplus for the first
eight months of the year totaled $103.9bn,
down 14.6% from the same period last year, it said.
Trade with the European Union,
China's largest trade partner, jumped 36.2% year on year
to $305.81bn in the January-August period, the GAC said.
Trade with the United States
climbed 32% to $242.61bn during the
period while that with Japan rose 34.8% to hit $186.89bn.
Meanwhile, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) increased a revised 0.4% in
the second quarter from the previous quarter, the Cabinet
Office said in a report on Friday.
The revised rate is an annualised rate of 1.5% in
the April-June period, up from a 0.4% initially reported
last month.
The difference is being credited to higher corporate capital
investment, however economists are forecasting the economy will
contract due to the yen's strength which continues to however
around 15-year highs against the US dollar.
Ireland's banking sector was in focus Thursday after the government announced plans to split Anglo Irish Bank Wednesday. James Stewart from North Square Blue Oak has analysis:
Economic View: Assessing debt sustainability in Ireland; Goodbody
chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments - - "Ireland faces a formidable,
but not unassailable task in restoring order to its public finances over the
next few years. Including the costs associated with banking recapitalisations,
the budget deficit will be 26% of GDP in 2010 (11.3% underlying), but this will
represent a once-off spike, with the deficit expected to fall to 9.3% in 2011.
We believe that while the banking costs are enormous in the context of banking
crises around the world over the last forty years, they do not threaten the
solvency of the Irish sovereign. Including costs associated with the banking
sector, we estimate the gross debt position will increase to 105% by 2013.
By that time, assuming interest rates on upcoming debt issuance is 6%, the
interest burden will rise to 4% of GDP, well below levels seen in the 1980s. For
any country to stabilise its debt level, assuming a primary balance (budget
balance excluding interest payments), its sustainable real growth rate must be
higher than its real interest costs. Current interest rates are high, relative
to trend economic growth rates in Ireland (c.3%). Therefore, it is imperative
that the current high interest rates on Irish government bond issuance are
reduced. This can be done by providing clarity on the banking sector issues and
delivering a budget in December that, at a minimum, sticks to the targets that
have been set out with the European Commission. It will not be easy, but similar
size fiscal consolidations have been completed successfully in the past.
The Irish sovereign does not have any near-term liquidity concerns. Its
average maturity stands at 7 years, in line with the Eurozone average. Funding
is fully complete up to Q2 2011, while rollover risks in 2011 are minimal given
that refinancing will only amount to 7.5% of GNP, relative to a euro-area
average of 14%. The c.€30bn of redemptions of the Irish banks in September has
provided additional concerns for the market recently, given the close link
between the sovereign and the banks. c.€87bn in eligible collateral should help
to smooth the funding profile this month. Some further clarity has been provided
on the issue of Anglo Irish Bank this week, while the all-important final cost
will be published in October."
As Japan unveils a new stimulus package, Richard Yetsenga, global head of emerging market FX Strategy at HSBC, says it is unlikely to make a marked difference. He speaks to CNBC's Chloe Cho about whether spending more money will really help the economy:
Economy passes minor milestone as annual CPI inflation turns
positive in August: Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, comments
-- "On an annual basis, CPI inflation turned positive for the
first time since December 2008, but pressure from underlying
consumer demand played a relatively small part in the rise. Recent
increases in mortgage interest rates accounted for a significant
chunk, with the mortgage interest component of the CPI showing a 10%
month-on-month gain, and a 24% gain over the last 12 months. Instead
of reflecting increased demand, rising mortgage costs have the
potential to undermine consumer buying power.
Another exceptional factor goading on inflation was the end of
the summer sales, which helps account for the 3.7% monthly increase
in clothing and footwear prices. Food and energy prices, which are
dependent on international markets, were steady on the month, giving
core inflation (with food, energy and mortgages stripped out) of
0.28% month-on-month. This is well below the headline 0.7%, but does
reflect moderate inflation consistent with the return to economic
growth.
Ireland escaped the food price rises which helped UK inflation
to a 3.1% annual rate in July. The Bank of England voted again
yesterday to maintain rates at 0.5%, ignoring its inflation target
in favour of a wait-and-see approach that betrays unease about UK
growth prospects and core price pressure. German inflation, also
released yesterday, rose just 0.1% in the month to August. If Irish
core inflation holds at yesterday's moderate level, it could
indicate an economy further down the adjustment road than many of
its peers."
Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.
US Markets
In New
York Thursday, the Dow rose 28 points or 0.27% to 10,415.
The S&P
500 rose 0.48% and the Nasdaq gained 0.43%.
Asia Markets
The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3% Friday after Japan boosted its
estimate for second-quarter economic growth.
The
Nikkei 225 added 1.55%; China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.26%; Australia's
S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.48% and India's Sensex Index
advanced 0.71%.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th
straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On Friday July16th,
the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Thursday this week, the BDI
rose 13 points or 0.44% to 2,988.