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The persistence in France of a budget deficit for over 35 years,
has pushed the ratio of
government debt to GDP (gross domestic product) to over 80%, up from 30%
in the mid-1970s.
In early 1975, President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing abolished
almost most aspects of censorship in France. Time Magazine reported that Secretary of State for Culture Michel Guy
still had authority to ban anything on stage or screen that went too
far. Guy, however, was more concerned about violence and drugs than
explicit sex. If he had been in office at the time, Guy said he might
well have banned Stanley Kubrick's chilling A Clockwork Orange, which
anyone over 18 could see, while letting Last Tango in Paris sail
through. Time also reported that another branch of government, however,
could give the porn
purveyors some anxiety. Seeking new sources of income, Finance Minister
Jean-Pierre Fourcade suggested a tax on "this outburst of
pornography."
France was facing a US$840m budget
deficit in 1976 and every budget since has been in deficit.
In the current issue of the IMF's
Finance and Development magazine, Kevin Cheng, Erik De Vrijer,and Irina Yakadina,
write that population aging is the most deep-seated of the chronic issues
confronting France. According to a study by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), France’s old-age dependency ratio - - the
ratio of citizens over age 65 to the working-age population - - was about 27%
in 2007. This ratio is projected to rise to 42% by 2025 and 58% by 2050.
The authors say likewise, the number of persons between ages 20
and 64 for every person over age 65 is expected to decline from 3.5 in 2010 to
just 2 by 2040, increasing pressure on the current pay-as-you-go pension system.
Simply put, the elderly are going to consume an increasingly large amount of
France’s resources. Large-scale retirements have already begun and will likely
intensify in the years to come.
The authors say it is not just demographics that cause the
old-age fiscal burden. A number of features of France’s pension system are also
at play. First, public transfers - - in the form of pensions and safety-net
benefits - - provide more than 85% of the income for people over age 65.
This is the second highest level in OECD countries, where the average is about
60%.
'Restoring Hope: Reinvigorating the Millennium Development Goals' assesses
how the world is doing in meeting the MDGs--international development targets
that all UN member countries and many international organizations have set for
2015.
The lead article, 'Regaining Momentum,' says that while several of the MDGs
are within reach, the global economic crisis has set back progress toward a
number of the targets, especially those related to health. Developing countries
will need the support of advanced economies in to get back on track. Economist
Jagdish Bhagwati calls into question the premise of the MDGs and argues that
they should be rethought. Philanthropist Melinda Gates gives the good news that
maternal health has been improving, though we are not yet on track to meet the
MDG target on maternal mortality.
Economists Arvind Panagariya and Rodney Ramcharan have different views on how
important it is to fight inequality. This issue also examines the deterioration
of fiscal positions in advanced economies--as a result of both the global
financial crisis and the long-run health and pension costs of an aging
population. 'How Grim a Fiscal Crisis?' argues that consolidation in advanced
economies should focus on spending cuts, given the already high tax burdens in
many countries.
In 'A Hidden Fiscal Crisis,' economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff examines the
serious budget issues in the United States.