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Fed says US economy showing "widespread" signs of deceleration; Budget deficit at $1.3trn in 11 months of fiscal year 2010
By Michael Hennigan, Founder and Editor of Finfacts
Sep 9, 2010 - 3:54:55 AM
The US economy is showing "widespread"
signs of deceleration, the US Federal Reserve
warned in its latest Beige Book report which was
published Wednesday. Another report on Wednesday
put the federal government budget deficit at about $1.3trn
in the first 11 months of
fiscal year 2010, which ends at the end of
September.
In the summary of anecdotal reports
on economic activity in the 12 districts of the
regional Federal Reserve Banks, the central bank
reported "continued growth in national
economic activity" between mid-July and the
end of August, "but with widespread signs of
a deceleration."
However, the so-called
Beige Book also says
that factories, farms and mines were all seeing
"continued gains in demand and sales,"
while housing
sales - - and the related construction industry - - slowed
after the expiration of a federal tax credit that
encouraged housing sales.
Five Fed districts, including New York and
Atlanta, have experienced "mixed conditions or a
deceleration in overall economic activity,"
according to the report. The other regions all
reported growth at a modest pace or improving
conditions.
The Boston district said: "Recent business developments are positive on
average across the First District but performance continues to vary between and
within sectors." The adjacent New York district reported: "On
balance, the Second District's economy showed signs of decelerating since the
last report."
Also Wednesday, there was further evidence of American
consumers continuing to reduce their indebtedness,
but at a slower pace than forecast.
Consumer
credit dropped by $3.6bn in July, the Fed
said, compared with the $4.7bn fall
analysts had forecast.
The drop was steepest in revolving debt,
indicating consumers were paying down their credit
card bills. The decline in debt is helping Americans
adjust their finances to a more sustainable
position, but using money to reduce debts is also
impacting the consumer spending engine of the
economy.
The Labor Department also on Wednesday
published
detailed information on the job market in July,
which showed that the
number of open positions rose by 178,000 that month,
reflecting a slight improvement in conditions for
people looking for work.
But the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey
also revised down its estimate of the number of job
openings in June.
Job openings in July, at 3.042m, were up from 2.864m in June.
But that compared with pre-recession levels in excess of nearly 5m. The
economy isn't creating enough jobs to absorb 14.9m unemployed workers.
The CNBC news
team parses the Fed's Beige Book report:
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the pace
of growth after the recent recession is likely to be slower than
usual as the economy recovers from the effects of the financial
crisis and as the support to economic activity provided by
fiscal policy diminishes. The CBO said in the past, many
recoveries from deep recessions have been quite robust. After
deferring purchases during a slump (especially for expensive
goods like homes, automobiles, and capital equipment),
households and businesses typically boost their spending quickly
as economic prospects improve.
However, international experience
suggests that recoveries from recessions that were spurred by
financial crises tend to be slower than average - - perhaps
because the losses in wealth and damage to the financial system
that occur during such crises weigh on spending for a number of
years. Following such a crisis, it takes time for consumers to
rebuild their wealth, for financial institutions to restore
their capital bases, and for nonfinancial firms to regain the
confidence required to invest in new plant and equipment; all of
those forces tend to restrain spending. In addition, under
current law, both the waning of fiscal stimulus and the
scheduled increases in taxes will temporarily subtract from
growth, especially in 2011.
In CBO's projections, real GDP
increases by 2.8% between the fourth quarter of calendar year
2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010 and by 2.0 percent in 2011.
Such rates of growth are well below historical norms for a
recovery from a severe recession; for example, following the
deep recession of 1981 and 1982, real GDP surged by nearly 8% in
1983 and by roughly 6% in 1984. In CBO's forecast, the growth of
real GDP picks up after 2011, averaging 4.1% annually from 2012
through 2014 and closing the gap between GDP and its potential
level (the amount of production that corresponds to a high use
of labour and capital) by the end of 2014.
The federal government spent about $1.3trn
more than it collected during the first 11 months of
fiscal year 2010, a report said Wednesday.
The CBO estimated the
deficit is about $100bn less than the
shortfall for the same period in fiscal 2009.
"Outlays are about 2% less than they were in the
first 11 months of 2009, whereas revenues have
increased by 1 1/2%," said the CBO said.
The
CBO estimates the deficit for 2010 will be
about $70 billion below last year's total but will
still exceed $1.3trn.
"Relative to the size of the economy, this year's
deficit is expected to be the second-largest
shortfall in the past 65 years: At 9.1% of gross
domestic product, that deficit will be exceeded only
by last year's deficit of 9.9% of GDP," the CBO
said.
On Wednesday, near Cleveland, Ohio,
President Obama proposed business tax breaks but rejected pressure to renew
expiring Bush era tax cuts for earners above $250,000. The top rate of income
tax would be restored to 39% for them.
Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner breaks down President Obama's new economic proposals, which include a
tax break for businesses.: