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News : International Last Updated: Sep 7, 2010 - 11:52:01 AM


Markets News Monday: Bank for International Settlements says cross-border bank lending in Q1 2010 rose for the first time since the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers
By Finfacts Team
Sep 6, 2010 - 10:18:37 AM

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The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, known as the central bank for central banks, reported on Sunday that cross-border lending by banks rose in the first quarter of this year for the first time since a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008, following the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers. Global banks boosted lending outside their national borders by $700bn, or 2.1%, to $33.4trn  the first quarter of this year, according to the BIS quarterly review.

The counterparty residence breakdown produces a more mixed picture. International claims on residents of the UK expanded by $217bn or 3.5% for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. Reporting banks also increased their claims on US residents by $120bn or 2.4%. By contrast, banks decreased their claims on residents of Japan by $9bn or 1.0% for the third quarter in a row. Furthermore, claims on residents of the Eurozone contracted by $21bn  or0.2%, despite the fact that euro-denominated claims on the region increased by $72 billion or 0.9%.

Data for Ireland includes banks in Dublin's offshore financial centre (IFSC) which paints a darker picture than the reality, as the IFSC banks are units of foreign banks which are engaged in international business.

The BIS said banks increased the amount of credit they extended to governments and the private sector in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain by 4.3%, or $109bn, in the first quarter of 2010 compared with the previous quarter. The additional credit brought banks’ total exposure to those countries to $2.6trn.

German and French banks had the most exposure to debt in the so-called periphery of the Eurozone. French exposure to Greece was $111.6bn, with $27bn of that was government debt. The rest was credit to Greek businesses and individuals, derivatives contracts or other categories. German banks’ exposure to Greece amounted to $51bn, of which $23.1bn was government debt.

US banks hold $41.2bn in debt or other exposure to Greece, the report said. Only $5.4bn of that sum was government debt.

German banks had an Irish exposure of $205.8bn, exceeded only by UK banks, with $222.4bn. Almost all the German credit to Ireland was in the private sector, the report said. This would include Hypo Real Estate’s subsidiary in Dublin (the former Depfa bank) at the IFSC.

"The temporary factors supporting the recovery are fading and will likely reveal a much slower economy; a realization that is only just taking hold in the markets," Christian Blaabjerg from Saxo Bank told CNBC Monday:

Economic View: The Budget countdown has started already; Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments - - "With last week’s Exchequer returns showing little slippage on targets set for the public finances in Budget 2010, we can take it that longer terms plans for reducing the budget deficit remain the same. The target, agreed with the European Commission sees Ireland returning to a budget deficit of under 3% of GDP by 2014.

To achieve this, policy changes of amounting to €5.5bn must be announced in the next four annual Budgets (with €2bn in capital spending cuts already identified). With Budget 2011 only three months away, discussions on next year’s package are in full flight. We know already that €1bn of the €3bn package will come from savings in the capital budget, with the rest to come from reductions in current spending and/or tax increases. Expenditure reductions are a preferable means of reducing the deficit, and indeed a lot has been done on that score already. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to eke out savings in this area, especially given the agreement to freeze public sector pay up to 2014.

Indeed, even outside of pay rates, approximately €2.2bn of identified savings in last year’s McCarthy report on current spending, out of a total of €5.3bn have already been implemented. It is not a huge surprise, therefore, that there is now speculation that increased taxes will form part of the Budget package to be announced in December. With VAT and corporation tax to be left unchanged, this means the burden will be placed on Income tax again. There will no decision on this for some time, but one would hope that further tax increases will only be considered after all spending options are exhausted. Given the recent deterioration in Ireland’s perceived credit-worthiness, there certainly should be no wavering on the targets set out."

As EU finance ministers gear up to discuss changes to the region's budgets, David Costa, dean at Robert Kennedy College, speaks to CNBC's Maria Ramos, Chloe Cho & Maithreyi Seetharaman about what needs to be achieved at the meeting:

Markit PMI indices reinforce picture of moderate European growth, while US data show a silver lining: Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran,  comments -- "The composite Markit PMI for August for Europe came in on forecast at 56.1 on Friday, while retail sales for July disappointed slightly with 0.1% monthly growth. The services PMI for Germany registered 57.2. In contrast, Ireland's services PMI fell to 52.9 in August from 55.7. So, no change to the outlook for Europe, with the periphery continuing to weigh on expected growth, while the core provides the upside. The German services figure, while slightly behind forecast, reinforces the view that the German recovery is not just down to exports, but also reflects growing domestic demand. A bright spot for the Irish figure was the increase in new export business to 53.8 from 51.5.

The big news item from Friday was the change in US non-farm payrolls. Overall employment was broadly flat, falling 54,000 on the month, ahead of the forecast 105,000 fall. The beat was thanks to a better-than-expected turnout for private payrolls, which gained 67,000 on the month. S&P futures and ten-year treasury yields rose on the positive news.

As the market digested the non-farm payrolls data, the US ISM non-manufacturing index came in at a seven-month low of 51.5 in August, from 54.3 in July. So, it was two steps forward and one step back for the US economic outlook — not inconsistent with Bernanke's view that the pre-requisites for growth next year are in place."

Name ChangeBlackrock International Land plc, the Irish quoted property investment and development company that is a spin-off from fruits distributor Fyffes, announced today that, subject to shareholder approval, it proposes to change its name to “Balmoral International Land Public Limited Company”

The proposed change of name arises following the resolution of a trade mark dispute between the company and BlackRock Inc, the U.S.-based multi-billion fund manager. The parties have now agreed to settle the litigation proceedings between them and a formal settlement agreement has been reached which they have both irrevocably undertaken to execute once the company’s shareholders have approved the change of name. The terms of the settlement agreement are to remain confidential. As a result of the agreement, the company will not suffer any financial loss in association with the direct costs of the change of name.

An Extraordinary General Meeting will take place on 7 October, 2010 at which the company will propose a special resolution to change its name to Balmoral International Land Public Limited Company.

Balmoral in Scotland, is the location of a royal castle.

Michael O'Sullivan from Credit Suisse and Basil Kaye, Head of strategy at MET Traders, joined CNBC to talk about investment strategy in a difficult market:

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5% Monday, taking its four-day advance to 4.5%. The benchmark climbed 2.7 percent last week

The Nikkei 225 added 2.05%; China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.43%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.76% and India's Sensex Index advanced 1.51%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

O’Keeffe announces €1.4m pilot management training fund for SMEs; Irish trading mission to Russia begins
US Economy: There is only one way out of the recession
Bank for International Settlements study says pre-financial crisis debt will continue to fall; May not seriously impact growth
Earnings of big US and European companies impressive in 2010
US loses 54,000 jobs in August; The broad measure of unemployment rose to 16.7%

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose 0.37% Monday.

The ISEQ has dipped 0.25% in Dublin.

CRH is off 1.08%; AIB  has declined 1.37% and BoI has dropped 0.35%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.2908 and at £0.8340.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Friday last week, the BDI rose 41 points or 1.45% to 2,876.

Crude oil for October 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $74.35 barrel, down 25 cents from Friday's close. In London, Brent for October delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $76.62.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,249.30, up $2.70 from Friday's close.

Irish Financials: The weekend roundup; Goodbody analyst, Eamonn Hughes, comments   -- "Commentary over the weekend heightens expectations that we are approaching a conclusion on the naming of the preferred bidder for AIB’s Polish operations, which could possibly come in the next day or so (Bloomberg indicates it could be as early as September 7). Polish media carries a story that BNP has offered the highest price, with Santander next and PKO the bottom of the 3 (with latter proposing to bid for a 66% stake and for AIB to place its remaining 4%). AIB is apparently seeking 210-215PLN per share for the stake, according to the media reports and we estimate that every 20PLN on the BZW share price is worth about €250m of capital for AIB. The BZWBK share price has averaged 195PLN for the last number of months, the figure we use to contribute to our €4.4bn of disposal gains in our models at AIB.

Elsewhere, press reports over the weekend indicate that Santander is seeking to hire 6,000 new staff in the UK as it presses ahead with its UK expansion. This is in addition to the 5,000 staff it just inherited from the branch network it acquired from its RBS acquisition. The move clearly highlights an appetite to expand in the UK market and would be supportive of them possibly being interested in AIB’s UK operations as well."

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