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News : Global Economy Last Updated: Oct 11, 2010 - 6:25:31 AM


Markets News Wednesday: Global foreign exchange daily turnover jumps 20% to $4trn - - London remains top fx centre; German retail sales dipped in July
By Finfacts Team
Sep 1, 2010 - 10:48:31 AM

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Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

Fx: Global foreign exchange market turnover was 20% higher in April 2010 than in April 2007, with average daily turnover of $4.0trn compared to $3.3trn, according to the Bank for International Settlements today. The increase was driven by the 48% growth in turnover of spot transactions, which represent 37% of foreign exchange market turnover. Spot turnover rose to $1.5trn in April 2010 from $1.0trn in April 2007.

The Basel, Switzerland-based central bank for central banks, said the increase in turnover of other foreign exchange instruments was more modest at 7%, with average daily turnover of $2.5trn in April 2010. Turnover in outright forwards and currency swaps grew strongly. Turnover in foreign exchange swaps was flat relative to the previous survey, while trading in currency options decreased.

As regards counterparties, the higher global foreign exchange market turnover is associated with the increased trading activity of "other financial institutions" - - a category that includes non-reporting banks, hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks, among others. Turnover by this category grew by 42%, increasing to $1.9trn in April 2010 from $1.3trn in April 2007. For the first time, activity of reporting dealers with other financial institutions surpassed inter-dealer transactions (ie transactions between reporting dealers).

Foreign exchange market activity became more global, with cross-border transactions representing 65% of trading activity in April 2010, while local transactions account for 35%.

The percentage share of the US dollar has continued its slow decline witnessed since the April 2001 survey, while the euro and the Japanese yen gained relative to April 2007. Among the 10 most actively traded currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars both increased market share, while the pound sterling and the Swiss franc lost ground. The market share of emerging market currencies increased, with the biggest gains for the Turkish lira and the Korean won.

The relative ranking of foreign exchange trading centres has changed slightly from the previous survey. Banks located in the United Kingdom accounted for 36.7%, against 34.6% in 2007, of all foreign exchange market turnover, followed by the United States (18%), Japan (6%), Singapore (5%), Switzerland (5%), Hong Kong SAR (5%) and Australia (4%).

Ireland's budget deficit looks likely to exceed 20 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, due in part to the Anglo Irish rescue package. Dermot O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers, joined CNBC for more:

German Retail Sales: According to provisional data from Germany's statistics office, Destais, retail turnover in July 2010 in Germany increased 2.4% in nominal terms and 0.8% in real terms compared with the corresponding month in the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 27 in July 2010 and 27 in July 2009, too.
 
When adjusted for seasonal factsors, the July turnover was in nominal terms 0.1% and in real terms 0.3% smaller than that in June 2010. Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first seven months of 2010 in nominal terms 1.9% and in real terms 0.9% larger.

Bringing closure to the Anglo uncertainty: Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O'Leary, comments - - "We have commented previously about the bond market being able to force policy announcements on governments. In the case of Ireland, the spike in Irish yields at the beginning of 2009, along with the deterioration in the public finances, triggered a government response by way of an emergency budget in April 2009. Comments from Finance Minister Lenihan yesterday, following the release of results by nationalised Anglo Irish Bank, indicate that a policy announcement on the bank is not that far off. Spreads on Irish government bonds widened further yesterday as the bank revealed an €8bn loss for the first half of the year. The government has already provided €23bn by way of promissory notes to the bank, with possible future injections depending on the size of future NAMA haircuts and the evolution of property markets in particular.

Assuming similar haircuts for the loans that are yet to be transferred to NAMA would mean an additional c.€4bn in losses for the bank. Future losses will also depend on assumptions for loan losses on the non-NAMA book. However, Anglo is still sticking to the view that the final cost to the State will be of the order of €25bn (under the assumption that the remaining NAMA loans are transferred over with the same haircut as the most recent tranche). Given that government support is to be funded by way of promissory notes over 15 years, it is unlikely to make a huge difference to the sovereign whether it is €25bn or €30bn. However, the uncertainty of the final number is having a dominant influence on sovereign jitters. The issue is likely to be number one on the agenda for the Government's cabinet meeting today. Like the banking stress tests in the US and Europe gave investors some added information and some comfort, a similar type of opening up exercise on the Anglo capital issue would be welcomed. The sooner finality is brought to the issue the better."

More positive economic data out from Germany Tuesday. Peter Dixon, senior economist at Commerzbank Securities, joined CNBC with more on the Eurozone economy:

European employment data a mixed bag: Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, comments -- "German unemployment posted another decline in August, feeding off the strong export and investment numbers in the second quarter. The number of people out of work fell by a seasonally adjusted 17,000 to 3.19m, according to the German Federal Labor Agency. It seems the more stable labour market has already affected consumer confidence and spending, as seen in yesterday's Economic Sentiment Indicator from the European Commission and in the Q2 consumption data for Germany.

The recovery in Germany may be approaching the critical mass that will make it self-sustaining, but the same cannot be said for Europe as a whole. Inflation in the eurozone in the year to August was slightly down on the year to July, at 1.6% compared to 1.7%, according to an initial estimate released by Eurostat yesterday (August 31st). The unemployment rate was broadly flat from June to July at 10% for the Eurozone. This figure masks wide regional variation, with Spain coming in at 20.3% and Austria a mere 3.8%.

As if taking the example of the German recovery, American consumer confidence beat forecasts to post a three point gain, rising to 53.5 in August. The figure provides a glimmer of hope that consumers feel the recovery is on track; however, the US remains some way removed from the self-reinforcing confidence and spending seen in Germany. The focus returns to Ireland tomorrow (September 2nd), with the CSO releasing Live Register figures for August."

China's manufacturing sector rebounded in August, latest PMI data showed. Hu Yifan, chief economist at CITIC Securities, tells CNBC's Bernard Lo what's next for the economy:

Digicel: Digicel, which was founded by Irish entrepreneur Denis O'Brein  has announced that it has hit the 11 million customer mark across its 32 markets worldwide.

Since launching in Jamaica nine and a half years ago, Digicel has grown rapidly and today offers its special brand of best value, best service and best network mobile communications across the Caribbean, Central America and the Pacific and has achieved 10% subscriber growth year on year and increased its market share quarter on quarter in all of its major markets (El Salvador, Haiti, Jamaica, Papua New Guinea and Trinidad & Tobago).

US Markets

In New York Tuesday, the Dow rose 5 points or 0.05% to 10,015.

The S&P 500 added 0.04% and the Nasdaq dipped 0.28%.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.1% Wednesday after China's purchasing managers' index hit a 3-month high - - see link in Box below.

The Nikkei 225 added 1.17%; China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.60%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 2.08% and India's Sensex Index gained 1.17%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Eurozone manufacturing slowed in August; Strong growth continued in Germany and France; Downturn in Greece deepened
Irish manufacturing growth eased further in August
US economic forecast for second-half of 2010 revised down; Bank lending fell in Q2; This year US agriculture exports will be second-highest ever
China's manufacturing PMI hit three-month high in August; Indian manufacturing sector expanded for 17th successive month
SEPA: Single Euro Payments Area; Smart Easy and Perfectly Adequate!
Dr. Peter Morici: Jobs deficit lays bare failure of Obamanomics
US Consumer Confidence Index improved moderately in August
US home prices rose strongly for the third-straight month in June; Year-to-year increases decelerated in June from May after 16 straight months of improving results
Fall in Irish bank credit accelerated in July; Deposits by Irish resident private sector also fell.
Anglo Irish Bank announces stunning loss of €8.2bn in H1 2010 - - sets ignominious record for half-year Irish corporate loss
Eurozone annual inflation at 1.6% in August; Unemployment rate stable at 10% in July; Jobless rate down in 12 months in Austria, Germany and Malta

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose 0.60% Wednesday.

The ISEQ has added 0.3% in Dublin.

CRH is up 0.98%; AIB  has declined 1.30% and BoI has dropped 1.69% and Elan ihas advanced 0.83%.


European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.2769 and at £0.8310.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Tuesday this week, the BDI rose 1 points or 0.04% to 2,713.

Crude oil for October 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $72.32 per barrel, up 40 cents from Tuesday's close. In London, Brent for October delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $75.06.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,250.00, up $2.30 cents from Tuesday's close.

Cheap, but PCAR and EBS deal causing uncertainty: Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments  -- "IL&P's H110 results beat on both the bank and the life company. However, in terms of estimates, IL&P is guiding the likely reversal of H1's positive experience variances in the life business, particularly in persistency where there's a risk it does not fully revert back to its long-term assumptions by the year end. On new business profit, we have held our new business sales figures unchanged, whilst our margin sits in the upper half of the 12-13% guided range. We are forecasting life profits of €182m (+78% yoy). At the bank, we have nudged up our net interest income estimates, as traction on asset re-pricing appears to have stabilised the margin at 81bps (though 58bps including the cost of the government guarantee). We have costs down -2%, though a restructuring charge in H1 sees the underlying run rate closer to -8%. On the credit line, the guidance for the full year is c.€300m. IL&P is sticking with its €800-€900m cumulative credit charge out to 2011, however, its estimates are premised on 40% house price declines, with every 1% adjustment equal to c.€20-€25m on their models. We are anticipating 50% declines.

Elsewhere, we are also shy of their 1% margin target for 2013. Combined, these probably go a long way to explain the difference between their 10% 2013 ROE target for the bank against our breakeven. We generate a franchise value for IL&P based on future estimated normalised returns and discounted back by our COE. This values the life company at the current Embedded Value, the bank at 0.3x its recapped NAV and the associate businesses at 1x. Adjusting for the capital raise, generates a fair value of €2.85. Put another way, this equates to an annualised 20-25% return for investors on the new capital invested into the bank. For the record, for investors merely focused on the Life Statutory NAV, the equivalent figure is €2.15 (SNAV equivalent to 0.7x EV). We think that IL&P looks good value, but with the outcome of the EBS bid process, the Regulator's capital review and the equity raise details still outstanding, it remains a high risk Buy call."

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