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Markets News Wednesday: Global foreign exchange daily turnover jumps 20% to $4trn - - London remains top fx centre; German retail sales dipped in July
By Finfacts Team
Sep 1, 2010 - 10:48:31 AM
Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland
Fx:
Global foreign exchange market turnover was 20% higher in April 2010
than in April 2007, with average daily turnover of $4.0trn compared to
$3.3trn, according to the Bank for International Settlements today. The
increase was driven by the 48% growth in turnover of spot transactions,
which represent 37% of foreign exchange market turnover. Spot turnover
rose to $1.5trn in April 2010 from $1.0trn in April 2007.
The Basel, Switzerland-based central bank
for central banks, said the increase in turnover of other foreign
exchange instruments was more modest at 7%, with average daily turnover
of $2.5trn in April 2010. Turnover in outright forwards and currency
swaps grew strongly. Turnover in foreign exchange swaps was flat
relative to the previous survey, while trading in currency options
decreased.
As regards counterparties, the higher
global foreign exchange market turnover is associated with the increased
trading activity of "other financial institutions" - - a
category that includes non-reporting banks, hedge funds, pension funds,
mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks, among others.
Turnover by this category grew by 42%, increasing to $1.9trn in April
2010 from $1.3trn in April 2007. For the first time, activity of
reporting dealers with other financial institutions surpassed
inter-dealer transactions (ie transactions between reporting dealers).
Foreign exchange market activity became
more global, with cross-border transactions representing 65% of trading
activity in April 2010, while local transactions account for 35%.
The percentage share of the US dollar has
continued its slow decline witnessed since the April 2001 survey, while
the euro and the Japanese yen gained relative to April 2007. Among the
10 most actively traded currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars
both increased market share, while the pound sterling and the Swiss
franc lost ground. The market share of emerging market currencies
increased, with the biggest gains for the Turkish lira and the Korean
won.
The relative ranking of foreign exchange
trading centres has changed slightly from the previous survey. Banks
located in the United Kingdom accounted for 36.7%, against 34.6% in
2007, of all foreign exchange market turnover, followed by the United
States (18%), Japan (6%), Singapore (5%), Switzerland (5%), Hong Kong
SAR (5%) and Australia (4%).
Ireland's budget
deficit looks likely to exceed 20 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) this year, due in part to the Anglo Irish rescue package. Dermot
O'Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers, joined CNBC for more:
German Retail Sales: According to provisional data from Germany's statistics
office, Destais,
retail turnover in July 2010 in Germany increased 2.4% in nominal terms and 0.8%
in real terms compared with the corresponding month in the previous year. The
number of days open for sale was 27 in July 2010 and 27 in July 2009, too.
When adjusted for seasonal factsors, the July
turnover was in nominal terms 0.1% and in real terms 0.3% smaller than that in
June 2010.
Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first seven
months of 2010 in nominal terms 1.9% and in real terms 0.9% larger.
Bringing closure to the Anglo uncertainty: Goodbody chief economist, Dermot
O'Leary, comments - - "We
have commented previously about the bond market being able to force policy
announcements on governments. In the case of Ireland, the spike in Irish yields
at the beginning of 2009, along with the deterioration in the public finances,
triggered a government response by way of an emergency budget in April 2009.
Comments from Finance Minister Lenihan yesterday, following the release of
results by nationalised Anglo Irish Bank, indicate that a policy announcement on
the bank is not that far off. Spreads on Irish government bonds widened further
yesterday as the bank revealed an €8bn loss for the first half of the year. The
government has already provided €23bn by way of promissory notes to the bank,
with possible future injections depending on the size of future NAMA haircuts
and the evolution of property markets in particular.
Assuming similar haircuts
for the loans that are yet to be transferred to NAMA would mean an additional
c.€4bn in losses for the bank. Future losses will also depend on assumptions for
loan losses on the non-NAMA book. However, Anglo is still sticking to the view
that the final cost to the State will be of the order of €25bn (under the
assumption that the remaining NAMA loans are transferred over with the same
haircut as the most recent tranche). Given that government support is to be
funded by way of promissory notes over 15 years, it is unlikely to make a huge
difference to the sovereign whether it is €25bn or €30bn. However, the
uncertainty of the final number is having a dominant influence on sovereign
jitters. The issue is likely to be number one on the agenda for the Government's
cabinet meeting today. Like the banking stress tests in the US and Europe gave
investors some added information and some comfort, a similar type of opening up
exercise on the Anglo capital issue would be welcomed. The sooner finality is
brought to the issue the better."
More positive economic data
out from Germany Tuesday. Peter Dixon, senior economist at Commerzbank
Securities, joined CNBC with more on the Eurozone economy:
European employment data a mixed bag:
Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, comments -- "German unemployment posted another decline in August, feeding off
the strong export and investment numbers in the second quarter. The
number of people out of work fell by a seasonally adjusted 17,000 to
3.19m, according to the German Federal Labor Agency. It seems the
more stable labour market has already affected consumer confidence
and spending, as seen in yesterday's Economic Sentiment Indicator
from the European Commission and in the Q2 consumption data for
Germany.
The recovery in Germany may be approaching the critical mass that
will make it self-sustaining, but the same cannot be said for Europe
as a whole. Inflation in the eurozone in the year to August was
slightly down on the year to July, at 1.6% compared to 1.7%,
according to an initial estimate released by Eurostat yesterday
(August 31st). The unemployment rate was broadly flat from June to
July at 10% for the Eurozone. This figure masks wide regional
variation, with Spain coming in at 20.3% and Austria a mere 3.8%.
As if taking the example of the German recovery, American
consumer confidence beat forecasts to post a three point gain,
rising to 53.5 in August. The figure provides a glimmer of hope that
consumers feel the recovery is on track; however, the US remains
some way removed from the self-reinforcing confidence and spending
seen in Germany. The focus returns to Ireland tomorrow (September
2nd), with the CSO releasing Live Register figures for August."
China's
manufacturing sector rebounded in August, latest PMI data showed. Hu Yifan,
chief economist at CITIC Securities, tells CNBC's Bernard Lo what's next for the
economy:
Digicel: Digicel,
which was founded by Irish entrepreneur Denis O'Brein has announced that it has hit the 11 million customer mark across its
32 markets worldwide.
Since launching in Jamaica nine and a half years
ago, Digicel has grown rapidly and today offers its special brand of best value,
best service and best network mobile communications across the Caribbean,
Central America and the Pacific and has achieved 10% subscriber growth year on year and increased its market
share quarter on quarter in all of its major markets (El Salvador, Haiti,
Jamaica, Papua New Guinea and Trinidad & Tobago).
US
Markets
In New York Tuesday, the Dow
rose 5 points or 0.05% to 10,015.
The S&P 500 added 0.04% and
the Nasdaq dipped 0.28%.
Asia Markets
The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.1% Wednesday after China's purchasing
managers' index hit a 3-month high - - see link in Box below.
The Nikkei 225
added 1.17%; China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.60%; Australia's S&P/ASX
200 Index jumped 2.08% and India's Sensex Index
gained 1.17%.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th
straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On Friday July16th,
the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Tuesday this week, the BDI
rose 1 points or 0.04% to 2,713.
The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at
$1,250.00, up $2.30 cents from Tuesday's close.
Cheap, but PCAR and EBS deal causing uncertainty:
Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments -- "IL&P's H110 results beat on both the bank and the life company.
However, in terms of estimates, IL&P is guiding the likely reversal of H1's
positive experience variances in the life business, particularly in persistency
where there's a risk it does not fully revert back to its long-term assumptions
by the year end. On new business profit, we have held our new business sales
figures unchanged, whilst our margin sits in the upper half of the 12-13% guided
range. We are forecasting life profits of €182m (+78% yoy). At the bank, we have
nudged up our net interest income estimates, as traction on asset re-pricing
appears to have stabilised the margin at 81bps (though 58bps including the cost
of the government guarantee). We have costs down -2%, though a restructuring
charge in H1 sees the underlying run rate closer to -8%. On the credit line, the
guidance for the full year is c.€300m. IL&P is sticking with its €800-€900m
cumulative credit charge out to 2011, however, its estimates are premised on 40%
house price declines, with every 1% adjustment equal to c.€20-€25m on their
models. We are anticipating 50% declines.
Elsewhere, we are also shy of their 1%
margin target for 2013. Combined, these probably go a long way to explain the
difference between their 10% 2013 ROE target for the bank against our breakeven.
We generate a franchise value for IL&P based on future estimated normalised
returns and discounted back by our COE. This values the life company at the
current Embedded Value, the bank at 0.3x its recapped NAV and the associate
businesses at 1x. Adjusting for the capital raise, generates a fair value of
€2.85. Put another way, this equates to an annualised 20-25% return for
investors on the new capital invested into the bank. For the record, for
investors merely focused on the Life Statutory NAV, the equivalent figure is
€2.15 (SNAV equivalent to 0.7x EV). We think that IL&P looks good value, but
with the outcome of the EBS bid process, the Regulator's capital review and the
equity raise details still outstanding, it remains a high risk Buy call."