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President Barack Obama delivers an address to the Nation on the end of the combat mission in Iraq from the Oval Office August 31, 2010.
Dr. Peter Morici: Jobs deficit lays bare failure of
Obamanomics; With thousands of young college graduates moving in with parents
and returning Iraq-war veterans facing long-term unemployment, President Obama
is scrambling for cover. Irresponsible spending, largesse for big banks and
subsidies for a broken health care system have busted the budget and failed to
create jobs.
Economists expect the Labor Department to report on Friday the economy lost
another 80,000 jobs in August after shedding 131,000 in July. Completion of the
Census accounts for most of the loss, but the report will demonstrate that
rewarding Democratic Party academics with new high paying regulatory jobs and
general hostility toward business is causing America’s largest enterprises to
head for China and small businesses to whither and die.
The unemployment rate will likely creep up a bit closer to 10%, as more and more
Americans drain their retirement accounts and endure the frustration of slammed
doors in Barack Obama’s jobs market. In July alone, 381 thousand adults chose to
quit looking for work altogether and that trend will continue in President
Obama’s land of dashed dreams and squandered opportunities.
Economists expect the private sector
added about 100 thousand jobs in August but that is an abysmal performance 14
months into a recovery from a deep recession.
The economy must add 13 million private sector jobs by the end of 2013 to bring
unemployment down to 6%. President Obama’s policies are not creating conditions
for businesses to hire those 320,000 workers each month, net of layoffs.
Net of inventory adjustments, the economy’s demand for goods and services is
growing at only about one% a year. The real potential is about five% but with
economic policies so ill conceived and with a President so ambivalent about
private enterprises—other than those run by Wall Street barons, Hollywood
producers and union bosses - - that simply is not possible.
In the second quarter, consumer spending; investment in new structures,
equipment and software; and government purchases added 4.4% to demand—but as
imports grew much more rapidly than exports, the trade deficit tapped off 3.4%.
The difference, one%, is annual growth in demand for US-made goods and services.
That has been the pace since the recovery began in July 2009.
Businesses can accommodate up to 2% growth in demand just by improving
productivity and not adding workers. Unless the rapid growth in imports can be
curbed, the US economy is headed for very slow growth and rising unemployment.
The president’s economic policies - - more spending, taxes and regulation for
Americans and appeasing foreign mercantilists like China - - is simply not
working.
The massive permanent expansion in federal spending and regulatory oversight
built into President Obama’s budget is discouraging private hiring by raising
fears of even higher taxes and yet more intrusive regulation.
Simply, higher taxes discourage purchases of non-essentials and high-line
durable goods, like better appliances, more appointed automobiles and
higher-quality homes, and higher taxes and tougher regulation increase
incentives to offshore production to China and other locations where those
burdens are less and entrepreneurship is more welcome.
Prior to the 2008 crisis, President Bush spent 19.6% of GDP and the deficit was
$161bn; whereas two years into the economic recovery in 2011, President Obama’s
budget projects outlays at 25.1% of GDP and a $1.3trn deficit in 2011. The
latter figures are like to be closer to 27% and close to $2trn if the president
does not accomplish the four% growth his budgets assume in stark contrast to the
real world the rest of us struggle.
Too much spending will require new taxes, and not just pushing rates marginally
above 50% on families earning $250,000. And, higher rates for those families
will raise taxes on half the income earned by proprietorships--those small and
medium sized businesses the president is urging to create jobs.
Much of the $787bn stimulus money was squandered on political hobby horses that
create few jobs. For example, grants to build green buildings displace other,
more cost-effective private construction and don’t increase the amount of
commercial space rented or built over the next several years. By delaying
projects, those grants have slowed construction spending and killed jobs.
The biggest banks received more than $2trn in TARP (federal financial
sector bailout) and Federal Reserve assistance to clean up their balance sheets
and recapitalize securities trading, while the 8,000 regional banks got little
assistance and remain burdened by toxic real estate loans. Consequently, nearly
250 regional banks have failed, and small and medium sized businesses cannot get
credit to expand.
In addition to credit, businesses need more customers to create jobs, and the
trade deficit - - in particular, imports of oil and the imbalance with China - -
cut a huge hole in demand for US goods and services. Without addressing oil and
China, other efforts to create jobs are futile.
The president’s moratorium on deep water drilling, though popular with
environmental fundamentalists, kills jobs by laying off workers in the oil, gas
and supporting industries and by sending too many consumer dollars abroad that
could be spent here.
Detroit has the technology to build much more efficient gasoline-powered
vehicles now, and a shift in national policy to rapidly build these would reduce
oil imports and create many jobs. Instead, the President proposes to replace
stickers on cars that report gas mileage intelligent folks can understand with
grade school letters - - A, B, C...
If we could only have those letter grades for the President’s economic
appointees, we might be better off.
China’s undervalued currency makes its products artificially cheap and
deceivingly competitive on US store shelves, but Beijing’s promises of new
flexibility on the yuan have not translated into meaningful revaluation. The
President, like a provincial premier, stands patiently accepting Chinese
largess—bond financing for profligate spending in Washington.
If President Obama wants to fix the federal deficit and create jobs, perhaps he
should spend less, get serious about better using and developing American energy
resources and quit appeasing China.
Candidate Obama promised those things but President Obama’s memory seems short
on everything but the failings of presidents passed.
Peter Morici,
Professor,
Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland,