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Japan's central bank today agreed at an emergency monetary policy meeting to
respond to the slowing economy and rising yen, which last week hit a 15-year
high against the US dollar, by expanding a special low-interest lending
facility.
The Bank of Japan said Japan's economy shows further signs of a
moderate recovery, and it is likely to be on a recovery trend. With regard to
prices, the year-on-year rate of decline in the CPI (excluding fresh food) has
been slowing and is expected to continue to slow. In the meantime, uncertainty
about the future, especially for the US economy, has heightened more than
before, and the foreign exchange and stock markets have recently been unstable.
In these circumstances, the Bank said it judged it necessary to pay more
attention to the downside risks to the outlook for Japan's economic activity and
prices.
The central bank will boost the amount of funds in its special facility by
¥10trn ($116bn) to a total of ¥30trn and it will be available for 6 months.
Japan’s currency fell to ¥85.41 after dropping to as low as ¥85.91.
Because of the UK public holiday, the world’s biggest market for
foreign-exchange trading is closed today.
Infineon/Intel: Infineon Technologies said today it has agreed to sell
its wireless unit to US chip giant Intel in a cash deal valued at approximately
$1.4bn.
The deal marks the second acquisition in recent weeks for Intel. Two weeks ago,
it announced plans to acquire the security technology firm McAfee Inc. for
almost $7.7bn in cash.
Infineon’s Wireless Solutions Division, is a unit of the German chip company
which mainly supplies to the car industry, and it develops, manufactures and
markets end-to-end leading edge semiconductor products and solutions for
wireless communications to enable the smooth transmission of voice and
high-speed data from the backbone of the telecommunication network
infrastructure to the end user’s equipment. Infineon says it offers a mature and
fully developed portfolio in Mobile Phone Platforms. This displays a
comprehensive portfolio from ultra low cost platforms, to entry and modem
solutions for smart phones.
Just before the
BoJ announced its decision: Discussing the
measures that the Bank of Japan might undertake to curb the yen's rise, with
Euan McCreadie, senior corporate dealer at OzForex, speaking with CNBC's Oriel
Morrison. Ray Barros, CEO of Ray Barros Trading Group, also charts the
dollar-yen cross:
Economic View 1: Plan on Anglo getting closer;
Goodbody's chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments -- "A final decision on the future of Anglo Irish Bank is edging closer, with two
new stories emerging on the matter over the weekend. Firstly, it appears that
the European Commission isn’t overly keen on Anglo’s idea to reinvent itself as
a significant player in the SME space, given the competition issues that may
emerge. Secondly, according to the Irish Times this morning, the Green Party,
the junior partner in coalition in Government, now appears to favour a quicker
winding down of the bank.
The report states that they are no longer in favour of
either an orderly wind-down over a number of years or the good bank/bad bank
plan previously mooted. It is to be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday,
while Anglo is to release its interim results tomorrow. We have commented
extensively over the past few weeks about the need to announce a set plan and
detailed final cost of the bank.
A final decision by the EC is expected in the
next few weeks, but with the bond market pushing Irish yields to record highs
(10-year yield at 3.44% over German bunds), an earlier announcement on the
matter by the Department of Finance may be required."
Economic View 2: An export-led recovery is still the way out for Ireland; Dermot O’Leary
additionally comments - - "It is generally accepted that the recovery in the Irish economy first depends on
a pick-up in its external sectors. This in turn depends on an improvement in
competitiveness and an increase in foreign demand associated with an
international recovery. The former is within Ireland’s control and there have
been significant cost reductions in the domestic economy here. Outside of the
heightened sovereign concerns of late, the other worrying aspect has been the
signs of a slowdown internationally.
Economies that have recovered from crises
such as Ireland’s in the past have usually been helped by a devaluation of their
currency and an international upturn (the Scandinavian countries in the early
1990s for example). The latest merchandise trade statistics indicate that the
value of exports grew by 1% yoy (-4% in Q1) in the second quarter of the year,
but imports have picked up, growing by 4% yoy (-12% yoy in Q1). The large
decline in imports in 2009 made a big contribution to GDP growth, but this is
likely to wane going forward. Full trade data, including services, will not be
released until the end of next month, but there is a chance that the trade
contribution will not be as large as in recent quarters."
Insight on the Jackson Hole
Fed Symposium, with James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve
Bank and CNBC's Steve Liesman from Fri Aug 27th:
Downtick in Irish trade surplus underlines exposure to global
conditions: Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran, comments --
"Data released on Friday August 27th by the CSO showed a 20% fall
in the trade surplus from May to June. While the headline number
looks ugly, it is worth noting that a decline of this magnitude in
monthly data is not uncommon. The last three years have seen five
such falls, and the trade surplus improved significantly over this
period. So the blip last month does not necessarily augur a
declining current account balance, but it does underline Ireland's
exposure to global demand.
The United States may not be Ireland's major trading partner but
remains important for Irish exporters, who will follow American
cyclical indicators with interest. Following cyclical indicators may
not be a reliable indicator of demand, however, given the apparent
reluctance of the American consumer to rein in spending on imports.
This has led to significant leakage of American fiscal stimulus
abroad, i.e. tax incentives to the American consumer have been
showing up in other countries' current account balances via the
balance of trade. This is good news for an export-oriented economy
like Ireland.
A co-ordinated recession in a highly globalised world is
something we have never experienced before and brings a new set of
challenges. Foremost among these is the avoidance of protectionism,
a challenge which policy makers have arguably met. In this context,
it is worth bearing in mind that an increase in Irish imports is a
contribution, however modest, to the broader recovery.
Markets were focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday in the
hope that Chairman Bernanke would provide his own contribution to
the recovery. Bernanke reiterated that the Fed has a range of tools
available to support the economy but did not seem close to using
them. His willingness to discuss further measures was enough to make
markets move sideways – a minor coup in view of the high
expectations."
Asia Markets
The MSCI
Asia-Pacific index rose 1.6% on Monday, having fallen 8.5% since reaching
a 20-month high on April 15th.
The
Nikkei added 1.63%; China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.57%; Australia's S&P/ASX
200 Index climbed 1.58% and India's Sensex Index
gained 0.57%.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th
straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On Friday July16th,
the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Friday last week, the BDI
rose 9 points or 0.33% to 2,712.