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Seasonally adjusted Irish exports fell by
5% between May and June while imports increased by 12% leading to
the trade surplus to shrink by 20% to €3.2bn. On an unadjusted
basis, the value
of exports in June 2010 was up by 1% compared with June 2009, while the value of
imports rose by 9%.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said an analysis of
trends
between the first five months of 2009 and 2010 shows: Exports decreased by 2% or €573m
to €35.91bn: Organic chemicals decreased by 11% or €985m. Medical and
pharmaceutical products increased by 14% or €1.13bn. Computer equipment
decreased by 41% or €112bn. Exports to Belgium (€6.05bn), Great Britain
(€4.83bn) and the US (€8.12bn) accounted for 53% of the total value of exports
in the first five months of 2010.
Imports decreased by 7% or
€1.42bn to €18.63bn: Computer equipment decreased by 50% or €944m. Other
transport equipment (including aircraft) fell by 38% or €925m.
Goods from the United States decreased by 22% or €928m. Imports from China fell
by 27% or €335m. Imports from Norway rose by 38% (oil) or €181m while imports from
Switzerland rose by 180% or €291m.
The CSO said as part of an ongoing detailed examination of
returns from enterprises to the various statistical inquiries, the value of
international trade in goods exports has been revised. The adjustments made
result in a total of €629 million (0.7%) being added to the exports figures
previously published for 2009 and €421 million (1.2%) added for January to May
2010.
These adjustments were already incorporated into the
published National Accounts and Balance of Payments statistics and therefore the
economic growth figures published to date are not affected.
Davy economist, Aidan Corcoran,
commented:
Disappointing drop in trade surplus;
volatility of monthly data makes extrapolation hazardous
Trade surplus falls 20% from May
level
A fall in exports of 5% and a
rise in imports of 12% caused a sharp deterioration in Ireland's seasonally
adjusted trade balance in June, according to data released by the CSO.
The decline in the trade surplus
comes as a disappointment, although it is worth pointing out that the
balance has still increased since the start of the year.
The sectoral data (which extend
to May) show the crucial medical and pharmaceutical sector performing well,
posting a 14% increase in exports in the first five months of 2010 over the
corresponding months of 2009.
Volatility in monthly data may mask
underlying trend
The seasonally adjusted volume
of exports was lower in May than in January, although the trend since
February was positive.
Table 1 (above) shows the high
volatility of the trade surplus at monthly frequency. Falls of 20% in the
trade surplus are not uncommon, and one poor data point does not constitute
a trend.
Terms of trade improvement
Ireland's terms of trade, the
ratio of the export price index to the import index, has posted an upward
trend this year (in data extending to May).
Interpreting this figure is
difficult as it incorporates the effects of currency movements; however, a
rising relative price of exports could be a cause for concern about
Ireland's competitiveness.
