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Snake River in the shadow of the Grand Tetons, near Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Photo: Grand Teton National Park
Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, and European Central
Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will be in Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, in the shadow of the majestic Grand Teton
mountains, at the annual Fed symposium for central
bankers, which begins today and 3 years after the onset of the
credit crunch, the US recovery in particular, is in a fragile
state.
The
Fed said on Aug 10th that US growth would be slower than
expected and it announced it would buy Treasuries to set a
$2.05trn floor on its balance sheet and keep interest rates from
rising. Trichet said five days earlier that the Eurozone economy
was growing faster than anticipated and the ECB was considering
phasing out its emergency lending measures.
This week, US economic data
confirmed the wobbly recovery with new home sales dipping to a 1963 low and
existing home sales falling to a 15-year low. Durable goods data was also week.
However, on Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that following last week’s
major rise over 500,000, initial unemployment benefit claims fell by more than
expected - - 31,000 to 473,000 - - in the week ended August 21st.
Joseph LaVorgna,
chief US economist at Deutsche Bank in New York, cut his estimate for growth
this quarter to a 2% annualised rate, down from 4.6%, only two weeks ago.
Stephen Stanley,
chief economist at broker-dealer, Pierpont Securities, now forecasts a 2.3% rate
of growth, down from a June forecast of 4.1%.
Besides Bernanke's
speech today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second
estimate of Q2 US GDP growth, which is
expected to be cut to an annualised 1.4% from the first
estimate of 2.4%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of
the trillion-dollar bond fund manager PIMCO,
writing in today's Washington Post says: "Throughout the summer, data signals have become more
alarming. Despite all the rhetoric about job
creation, unemployment remains stubbornly high and
the problem is becoming structural in nature (and,
therefore, harder to solve). Consumer credit
continues to contract while small companies find it
difficult to access new bank lines of credit.
Housing activity is falling, and home values are
poised for further declines as foreclosures
increase. The trade balance has taken an ominous
turn, with exports stagnating and imports surging.
More Americans are falling through the large holes
in the country's safety net."
El-Erian advocates specific measures
which would include pro-growth tax reform, housing finance
reform, increased infrastructure investments, greater support for education and
research, job retraining programs, removal of outdated interstate competition
barriers and stronger social safety nets.
CNBC at Jackson
Hole: The issues that
are keeping the economy off track, with Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial; Martin
Feldstein Harvard University; Richard Berner, Morgan Stanley and CNBC's Steve
Liesman:
In bearish times, a black bear straddles a fence in Grand Teton National Park: Photo: Grand Teton National Park
CNBC at Jackson Hole: Many are
questioning whether Bernanke and the Fed are running out of ammunition, with
Maya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and Philippa
Malmgren, Canonbury Group: