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UK retail sales were up for a second straight month
in August with volumes of sales on the high street higher than
a year ago in August, according to
the latest CBI (Confederation of British Industry) quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.
Retailers expect sales to continue growing in
September and they are more optimistic about the general business situation in
the coming three months. Over half of the retailers surveyed (53%) said
that the volume of sales rose during the first two weeks in August while 18%
said that it fell, giving a balance of +35%. This was similar to the pace of
sales growth in July (+33%), and the fastest since April 2007, though it was
slower than expected (+45%).
Sub-sectors seeing the strongest growth were:
clothing, grocers, durable household goods, footwear & leather, and hardware &
DIY.
Better weather at the beginning of August, the
summer sales and summer holidays are likely to have helped drive sales up in
these sectors, the leading business group said.
The balance for the underlying trend, the
three-monthly moving average of sales volumes, was +21%, which is the strongest
figure since July 2007 (+22%).
Looking to September, the CBI said retailers expect sales
growth to remain strong, with a balance of +39% expecting volumes to be higher
than a year ago.
The August Distributive Trades Survey was
conducted between 27 July and 11 August, and covered 133 companies.
Numbers employed in the retail sector were
broadly unchanged in the year to August, the first time since February 2004 a
fall in employment hasn’t been recorded in the longer, quarterly survey.
For the third quarter running, price inflation
has accelerated. In this survey, 66% of firms said average selling prices rose
on a year ago, and 9% said they fell, giving a rounded balance of +58%. This is
the fastest pace of price increases since February 1992 (66%).
Reflecting the recent run of better retail sales,
a net 22% of firms expect the overall business situation will improve in the
coming three months, with sentiment at its most positive since May 2004 (+22%).
Furthermore, for the first time in six years,
retailers expect to invest more in the coming year than in the last one. With a
balance of +32%, firms’ investment intentions are the most positive since
February 1994 (+40%).
Lai Wah Co, CBI Head of Economic Analysis, said: “Better sales growth continued on the high street
in early August, and retailers are upbeat about prospects in the coming three
months. The summer sales, some warmer weather and the school holidays will no
doubt have helped, lifting sales of clothing and shoes and encouraging
households to invest in some home improvements.
“Retailers are hopeful that strong sales growth
will continue next month. However, the broader outlook for consumer spending is
still uncertain, given the VAT rise next year, subdued pay awards and the
feed-through of public spending cuts to job losses.”
In wholesaling, sales volumes rose in August
compared with a year ago, despite expectations they would fall. 41% of
wholesalers said the volume of trade was up, while 18% said it was down, giving
a balance of +23%. This was far better than the -18% figure expected last month,
and a similar growth in volume of sales is predicted in September (+22%). The
best performing wholesale sectors mirror those in retail; namely, clothing and
food & drink.
In the motor trades, sales volumes fell on a year
ago for the third month running. The balance of -27% was slightly worse than
expected (-23%), and another fall is expected next month (a balance of -21%).
August saw strong retail sales
growth in the UK, and Lai Wah Co from CBI told CNBC that September could also
see solid numbers from the sector: