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US new home sales fell to 1963 levels in July; Trillion dollar bond fund manager supports federal guarantee of mortgages
By Finfacts Team
Aug 26, 2010 - 4:00:19 AM
PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company) was founded in Newport Beach, California, in 1971 by Bill Gross with $12m in assets under management and has more than $1trn in assets under management. It has more than 1,200 employees in offices in Newport Beach, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, Tokyo, London, Sydney, Munich, Toronto and Hong Kong and was acquired by the German financial group Allianz, in 2000.
US new home sales were reported on
Wednesday to have fallen in July to the lowest level since the current
statistics series began in 1963. Meanwhile, Bill Gross, the founder of the
trillion dollar bond fund manager PIMCO, supports a continuing federal guarantee
of mortgages.
The rate of new home sales fell
12.4% in July from a month earlier to an annualised rate of 276,600 a year, the
US Commerce Department said. Purchases fell in all four regions, led by a 25
percent drop in the West. The supply of homes at the current sales rate climbed
to 9.1 months’ worth from 8 months in June. There were 210,000 new houses on the
market at the end of July, the same as the prior month. On Tuesday, existing
home sales were reported to have fallen to a 15-year low, also partly
attributable to the ending of an $8,000 first time buyers' tax credit in April.
Almost a third of existing home
sales in July were bank-related distress sales and besides the end of the tax
credit, the uncertain economic situation is impacting sales sentiment.
Bill Gross, the founder of the
trillion-dollar bond fund manager PIMCO, says in his September
investment outlook that the federal mortgage financiers, Fannie and Freddie,
which were bailed out in 2008, had blown up because of the
private/public nature of their charter, which incentivized executives and
stockholders to go for broke with the implicit understanding that Uncle Sam
would be there as a backstop should anything go wrong. "If you eliminated the
private incentive and provided a tighter regulatory watchdog, we would have no
more 'liar loans' or 'no docs' and a much sounder foundation for future
homeowners and investors. The private market, to my mind, had really lost
its claim as the most efficient and judicious arbiter in this particular case.
Markets and private incentives without proper guardrails were as threatening to
a sound economy in the 21st century as too much regulation and government
ownership proved to be in the 1970s," Gross writes.
He says 95% of existing mortgage creation over the past 12 months were
government guaranteed. The private market was nowhere to be found because they
charged too much. It was the cost of private origination and securitization,
perhaps more than any other factor, that justified government involvement.
Prime, but non-conforming, mortgages (jumbos, insufficient down payments) were
being purchased by PIMCO in the hundreds of millions of dollars every week, but
at yields of 6, 7, and 8%. He says few, if any, could afford a new home at those interest rates.
"If you were a
believer in the dominance and superiority of private markets, how could you deny
the signal that markets were sending - - that the risk was too high given the
substantial losses of recent years?" he asks.
The bond fund manager says the necessity of government backing
is substantially based
on the commonsensical, psychological, indeed sociological observation that the
great housing debacle of 2007–2010+ would have a profound influence on
homebuyers and mortgage lenders for decades to come.
Gross writes: "What did we learn from the
Great Depression, for instance: Americans, for at least a generation or more,
became savers - - dominated by the insecurity of 20%+ unemployment rates and
importance of a return of their money as opposed to a return on their money. It
should be no different this time, even though the Great R. is a tempered version
of the Great D. Americans now know that housing prices don’t always go up,
and that they can in fact go down by 30–50% in a few short years. Because of
this experience, private mortgage lenders will demand extraordinary down
payments, impeccable credit histories, and significantly higher yields than what
markets grew used to over the past several decades. Could an unbiased
observer truly believe that housing starts of two million or even one million
per year could be generated under the wing of the private market? In front of
Treasury Secretary Geithner and the assembled audience (in Washington DC last
week), I said that was
impractical. Let me amend that to 'ludicrous.'”
Bill Gross, founder of PIMCO, shares his outlook on stocks, bonds and the
housing market:
Insight on whether the American dream of
homeownership is dying, with Shari Olefson, Fowler White Boggs; Jonathan Miller,
Miller Samuel and CNBC's Diana Olick: