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Markets News Tuesday: Aer Lingus expects to break-even in 2010; CRH shares plunge in Dublin; US dollar dips to 15-year low against yen
By Finfacts Team
Aug 24, 2010 - 9:23:12 AM
During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to
holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest
data.
Aer Lingus today reported pre-tax losses of €20.8 m for the
first six months of the year, compared with losses of €81.7m the
same time last year - - a 74% improvement. The airline made a
profit of €18.8m in the second quarter of the year, due to lower
operating costs, oil prices and the implementation of its
restructuring programme. It said despite challenges, it remains
confident of at least breaking even in 2010. Aer Lingus has not
returned a profit since 2007.
Passenger revenue fell by 4.6% versus Q2 2009
due to a 16.6% fall in passenger numbers which was partly offset by a 14.3%
rise in average yield per passenger compared to the same period in 2009.
Capacity was 19.8% lower primarily due to planned cuts in capacity
(including at the London Gatwick base) but also as a result of volcanic ash
disruptions to airspace.
Short haul passenger revenue decreased by
3.8% on Q2 2009 to €184.0m in Q2 2010. The average yield on short haul
routes increased by 13.8% while short haul passenger volumes declined by
15.8%. Short haul capacity was 12.8% lower in Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2009
to due a reduction in the scale of activities at London Gatwick and enforced cancellations in April and May due to the closure
of northern European airspace following the eruption of the Icelandic
volcano. Short haul load
factor in Q2 2010 declined by 1.5 points versus Q2 2009.
Christoph
Mueller, Aer Lingus' CEO, commented:
"Aer Lingus has delivered a significantly improved operating result in the
first half of 2010 compared to prior year. This performance has been driven
by strong unit revenue growth coupled with a significant improvement in our
cost base. This operating result was achieved despite the adverse impact of
volcanic ash disruption in H1 2010 as well as the continuation of difficult
conditions in our key Irish market where unemployment is currently at 13.7%
and where passenger numbers passing through Dublin Airport have declined by
16% compared to the first six months of 2009.
For the 2010 full year, we expect to report
an operating performance (before exceptional items) of no worse than break
even. This would represent a good performance in difficult market conditions
but is predicated on the delivery of committed staff productivity savings
and no further significant disruptions to operations from industrial action
or airspace closures.
Looking to 2011, it remains too early to
provide firm guidance on the Group's expected performance. Yields and
passenger volumes will be dependent on the economic outlook in our main
markets which remains uncertain. However, we expect ongoing improvement in
our cost base in 2011 as we continue to implement the Greenfield cost
reduction programme."
The yen is being driven by
carry trade and risk aversion, says Roman Scott, managing director at Calamander
Capital. He tells CNBC's Oriel Morrison that Japan should use the yen strength
to buy assets abroad in order to mediate the appreciating currency:
Strong H1 results with improvements in costs and capacity
rationalisation: Davy analyst, Joshua Goldman, commented - - "ANALYSIS: As suggested in its trading update in late July, Aer
Lingus had a very strong H1. In the first half, the company had an
operating loss of €19m, pre-exceptional, (Davy: -€57m) with EPS of
-2.5c (Davy: -9.0c) .This is c.80% better than last year's H1
operating loss of €93m. The key to the company's strong results was
capacity rationalisation, which allowed for higher yields, and cost
reduction measures. Long-haul capacity was reduced by 31.6% while
demand only decreased by 26.5%, leading to a load factor that was
5.2pp higher year-on-year (yoy). Along with the increased demand for
business-class service, this contributed to the average yield
increasing by 17.5%. Short-haul demand decreased by more than
capacity, leading to a load factor 1.9pp lower yoy. In spite of
this, yields increased by 9% yoy. Although total ancillaries were
down 3.9% in H1 due to lower passenger numbers, the actual ancillary
revenue per passenger was up to €18.32, a 7.8% increase yoy.
The company remains committed to reducing costs. As part of the
Greenfield initiative, it has delivered staff savings of €11.7m in
H1 with an annualised run-rate of €29.6m to the end of June. By the
end of 2010, the company continues to target an annualised €50m of
staff and €4m of non-staff cost savings. This will leave the balance
(€43m) of the total targeted €97m in cost savings for 2011
DAVY VIEW: The company remains committed to the Greenfield cost
saving initiative. Although we will re-examine our forecasts after
the company’s presentation at 09.00 (live webcast at
www.aerlingus.com; or by phone at +353 1 436 4265; confirmation #322
2220), an initial review suggests that Aer Lingus could achieve an
operating profit in the range €10-20m. This assumes that the current
issues with cabin crew on scheduling do not escalate. Although there
is limited visibility into 2011, we believe that even without
significant revenue improvements, the cost-cutting measures to be
implemented and the full-year run-rate of those implemented in 2010
should allow Aer Lingus to continue to improve its operating
results."
Economic View: Mortgage market
still in the doldrums; Goodbody's chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, commented - -
"As an illustration of why the Irish housing market continues to languish, one
should look no further than the latest gross lending statistics from the Irish
Banking Federation (IBF). The volume of mortgage lending fell by 38% yoy in Q2
2010, similar to the rate of decline witnessed in the opening three months. With
average loan sizes falling, this translated into a 40% decline in the value of
new mortgage lending in Q2. While there will continue to be little in the way of
mortgage lending in the investor, top-up and re-mortgaging categories, the most
disappointing element of the new figures was the reversal of the easing rate of
decline for first-time buyers (-7% yoy) and mover-purchasers (-36% yoy).
Taking these trends, we now
believe that gross lending will fall by a third in 2010, before increasing by 6%
in 2011. To put this in context, the €5.3bn new lending expected in 2010 is a
little over a tenth of the lending seen at the peak in 2006 (c.40bn). Taking
this on board, we are often asked why is it that net lending is only down by a
modest amount – down 3% from the peak in June 2010. Part of the reason for this
is that the rate of repayment fell substantially over recent years as some
struggling home-owners renegotiated mortgage terms. However, there is evidence
over the past two quarters that this is starting to unravel. What this means is
that the net lending will go sharply negative over the coming months,
accelerating the deleveraging process for the banks and for the economy
overall."
Rob Dobson, senior economist
at Markit, joined CNBC for a look at the PMI numbers out of the Eurozone in
August.
Markit PMI indices temper expectations for euro-zone growth: Davy's Aidan Corcoran commented -- "The European business cycle is often thought to lag the US cycle,
and yesterday's euro-zone Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
results have done little to dispel the idea. But while US data have
shown a marked deterioration in the economic outlook, the euro-zone
PMI figures serve only to moderate the expectations for growth.
The headline composite service and manufacturing index came in at
56.1, disappointing forecasters who had pencilled in a smaller drop,
from 56.7 in July to 56.4. The fall suggests that the euro-zone will
struggle to match the 1% pace of the flash estimate of Q2 quarterly
growth over the coming months. Flagging international demand weighed
on the PMI index, with the export orders component of the
manufacturing index falling from 55.4 in July to 54.4 in August.
Weaker demand for exports partly explains the drop in the German
manufacturing index from 61.2 to 58.2. That international demand is
suffering should have come as little surprise given the slew of
negative data from the US. More detail will be available on the
German accounts tomorrow, with the publication of the official GDP
estimates for Q2.
We would caution against reading too much into the weaker PMI
indices. The figures remain comfortably above the 50 mark which
separates recession from expansion, and any disappointment among
commentators may be partly due to extrapolation of the 1% GDP growth
flash estimate. But this export-driven growth always looked
vulnerable in the context of flagging international demand, while
fiscal austerity looming over the UK and the periphery limits any
upside potential. "
Johannes Seibert,
MD at BMW Group Asia, says the carmaker is cautiously optimistic on the global
economy. However, he speaks to CNBC's Chloe Cho, Yousef Gamal El-Din and Steve
Sedgwick about why he is upbeat on the company's prospects in Asia:
US Markets
On Monday in
New York, the Dow Jones fell 39 points or 0.38% to 10174.
The S&P 500
slid 0.40% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.92%.
Asia
Markets
Asian stocks fell Tuesday
on fears the global recovery is faltering,
The index
dipped 0.7%.
The US dollar returned towards a 15-year
low against the yen hit earlier this month, dipping below 85 yen; the Nikkei
average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points.
The
Nikkei dropped 1.33%; China's Shanghai Composite added 0.24%; Australia's
S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.08% and India's Sensex Index
lost 0.38%.
In
Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell
0.99% Tuesday.
The
ISEQ has declined 4.13% in
Dublin.
CRH,
which accounts for over 30% of Irish market capitalisation, has plunged over 14%
after reporting a 77% dive in H1 profits -- see link in Box above.
Aer Lingus is up 1.08%; AIB is off 3.03% and BoI has dipped 2.35%.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th
straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On Friday July16th,
the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Monday this week, the BDI
rose 85 points or 3.08% to 2,841.