See Search Box
lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be
the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that
developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.
Welcome
Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and
you are in its business news section.
Shanghai's World Financial Center - - China's tallest building
Bearish sentiment among fund
managers about the outlook for the global economy and corporate earnings has
eased, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for August.
Investor interest in Europe increased.
The survey shows a net 5% of
respondents predicting that the global economy will improve in the next year.
This represents a modest turnaround from July when a net 12% of respondents
predicted the world economy would deteriorate.
While the percentage of respondents
expecting below-trend growth and inflation remained unchanged at 73% in August,
the survey shows recession fears easing. A net 78% of respondents think a
double-dip recession is unlikely. After a deflation shock last month, investors
have shifted their focus back towards inflation. The survey shows an almost
neutral view on the prospects for a rise in global inflation in the next year.
Just 1% of respondents expect inflation to be lower in 12 months' time, compared
to a net 12% in July. In addition, a net 14% of asset allocators indicated that
global monetary policy is too stimulative, compared to just 5% in July.
Nonetheless, 55% of respondents to the global survey are ruling out any rate
hike in the US before the third quarter of 2011.
A key indicator tracking investors'
risk and liquidity conditions returned to an almost neutral reading, indicating
an improvement in sentiment.
"The spotlight of investor
pessimism has shifted away from China and Europe to Japan and the US Investors
clearly remain cautious, so better news on US growth and fiscal policy would be
a pleasant surprise," said Michael Hartnett, chief
Global Equities strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
"Investor sentiment on
Europe has staged a remarkable recovery in the past few months, underpinned by
greater optimism about Europe's banks. Economic data now has to continue to
support this shift," said Gary Baker, head of European
Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Appetite for European equities
returns
Asset allocators reduced their cash
holdings. A net 7% were overweight cash in August, compared to 13% in July and
19% in June. While there was an uptick in allocation to equities, there was a
drop in allocation to bonds. A net 23% were underweight bonds in August,
compared to a net 15% underweight in July.
The survey also shows a sharp drop
in investors' appetite for US and Japanese equities, but a recovery in demand
for Eurozone equities.
A net 14% of asset allocators are
underweight US equities, compared to 7% overweight in July. Global asset
allocators have also reduced their exposure to Japanese equities. A net 27% were
underweight Japanese equities in August, compared to a net 7% in June.
In contrast, a net 11% were
overweight Eurozone equities in August, the most positive reading since October
2009. This compares to a net 10% who were underweight a month earlier. There was
also good news for U.K. equities, on which investors are the most optimistic
they have been since May 2007.
Patrik Schowitz
from BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research joined CNBC for the European closing
bell:
Bearish sentiment on China
recedes
Global Emerging Markets (GEM)
increased in popularity as concerns about a weakening of the Chinese economy
waned. A net 38% of global asset allocators are overweight GEM equities, up from
34% in July and 31% in June.
Bearish sentiment towards the
Chinese economy eased markedly. A net 19% of respondents expect the Chinese
economy to weaken over the next year, compared to 39% just a month ago. This
improved sentiment was supported by a shift towards commodities. A net 9% of
respondents were overweight commodities in August, compared to a net 1%
underweight in July.
Banks, consistently one of the most
unloved sectors, finally saw a sharp improvement from a net 28% underweight in
July to a net 19% underweight this month. This ranked alongside industrials as
the biggest sector shift by investors. On the other hand, utilities and
pharmaceuticals suffered steep declines in support.
US dollar looks cheap; Japanese
yen overvalued
The survey reveals that asset
allocators think the US dollar looks undervalued, while the Japanese yen is seen
as overvalued. A net 23% of respondents regard the dollar as undervalued,
compared to just 3% in July. A net 62% see the yen as overvalued - a survey
record - versus 55% a month earlier.
Survey of Fund Managers: A total of
187 fund managers, managing a total of US$513bn, participated in the global
survey from August 06 to August 12. A total of 157 managers, managing US$327bn
participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill
Lynch Global Research with the help of market research company TNS - -
ranked as the fourth-largest market information group in the world.