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Markets News Tuesday: Dublin prime office rents 10% more expensive than average of Amsterdam, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow; Belfast 60% lower
By Finfacts Team
Aug 17, 2010 - 8:34:44 AM
During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to
holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest
data.
Prime office rents have now stabilised at approximately €35 per
sq ft or €376 per square metre in the Dublin market. It is encouraging that
Dublin office rents are now more competitive relative to other competing cities
as this may encourage more occupiers to locate here, according to commercial
property agents CB Richard Ellis. However, rental costs in Dublin are still
approximately 10% more expensive than the average rent being quoted for prime
office accommodation in Amsterdam, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester, Belfast
and Glasgow - - cities Dublin competes directly with for potential office
occupiers.
CBRE says over the last decade, when Dublin office rents have
been trading at a significant premium to other competing cities, office rents in
Belfast have been trading at an average discount of 50% to other competing
locations. With prime office rents in Belfast currently approximately 60%
cheaper than in Dublin and wage costs considerably lower, this undoubtedly poses
a threat to the Dublin office market, particularly if in the future, corporation
tax in Northern Ireland is reduced to make it more comparable with the Republic,
as is proposed.
Economic View: 2010 Irish sovereign funding likely to be complete this
morning, but at what price?; Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments
- - "As usual, there is a sense of nervousness ahead of this morning’s
auction of Irish government debt given the increase in spreads over the past
week or so. For much of the past year though, the background music for Irish
government debt issuance has been far from ideal, whether it be due to concerns
about the Greek sovereign crisis or domestic worries about the size of the
budget deficit. In this regard, the news of the increased cost to the State of
recapitalising Anglo Irish Bank is just next in line of the long list of these
worries.
While spreads on 10-year government paper (which is being offered this
morning along with 4-year paper) rose again yesterday to over 3%, it is somewhat
fortunate that this is against the background of record low interest rates in
core Europe and around the world. The drawback of this of course is that these
rates are a reflection of the expectation of an upcoming slowdown in the global
economy, which would affect an open economy like Ireland detrimentally anyway.
The NTMA has been very successful in its bond issuance program. This morning’s
auction is likely to garner the required interest, and, indeed, complete the
long-term funding requirement for the year, but the price at which these bonds
are sold will give some idea of how uncertainty about the final cost to the
State of the banking crisis is affecting the sovereign. As we stated yesterday,
clarity is needed to reduce what we will call the 'Anglo Irish premium'."
Getting
manufacturing jobs back, with Robert M. Kimmitt, Deloitte Center for
Cross-Border Investment chairman:
Ireland to hit year's long-term funding target today: Davy chief
economist, Rossa White, comments -- "Today sees Ireland
conduct its regular monthly government bond auction. If €1.5bn is
raised (the auction size will be in the range €1-1.5bn, but all of
the recent auctions have raised at least €1.5bn), the Irish state
will all but reach its funding target for the year. The spreads on
the bonds issued may finish somewhat wider than recent auctions
thanks to recent jitters over the implications of the end of the
original government banking guarantee. But developed-economy bonds
have surged recently, so the absolute yield level (on the 2020 bonds
for example) will probably be lower than at the last auction.
So far this year, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
has raised €18.4bn versus its stated target of €20bn for the full
year. Moreover, if the final total reaches €20bn, it would represent
pre-funding of up to €5bn for next year. Today's auction will mean
that the year's target has been met with four months to spare. Yet
that will hardly mean the end of the fundraising: scheduled bond
auctions in September, October and November may add to the buffer
for 2011.
The approach of a number of milestones seems to have caused
some angst in the illiquid market for Irish bonds over the last
month (secondary market 10-year spreads have widened to 300 basis
points over bunds). The end of the original (CIFS) bank guarantee
(introduced in September 2008) coincides with significant bank
funding rollovers.
But the Irish banking system is in much better shape than at
the start of this year, when 10-year government bond spreads were
fully half what they are today. One of the main banks (Bank of
Ireland) has been fully recapitalised, the other (Allied Irish
Banks) has outlined its path and two separate stress tests have been
carried out. The main sore remains nationalised Anglo Irish Bank,
but we understand that the restructuring plan that had to be
submitted to the EU may be unveiled next month. If the framework
constitutes a credible solution (and its balance sheet is
transparent), much of the uncertainty may dissipate. That will be
timely, as September sees almost €9bn in Anglo funding to be
rolled."
Ahead of the weekend federal
election in Australia, George Tharenou, economist at UBS Australia, highlights
the key issues to watch out for, with CNBC's Karen Tso, Bernard Lo and Martin
Soong:
US Markets
On Monday, in New York, the Dow Jones fell 1 point to 10,302.
The S&P 500 added 0.01% and the Nasdaq rose 0.39%.
The Federal Reserve's bank lending survey
published on Monday, shows that while previously the easing in loan standards
was occurring primarily at the country's largest domestic banks, for the first time
since late 2006, it found easier
lending standards being imposed on small
businesses.
The Fed
defines small firms as those with annual
sales of less than $50 million.
Resources
continue to be China's strongest driver of outbound M&A activities but the tech
and manufacturing sectors are also drawing increasing attention, says David
Brown, Greater China private equity group leader at PwC. He talks to CNBC's
Bernard Lo:
Asia
Markets
The MSCI Asia Pacific index
gained 0.3% Tuesday.
The
Nikkei dipped 0.38%; China's
Shanghai Composite climbed 0.38%;
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.87% and India's Sensex Index
advanced 0.25%.
The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.
On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the 35th
straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On Friday July16th,
the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Monday this week, the BDI
rose 20 points or 0.81% to 2,488.
The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at
$1,226.10, up 60 cents from Monday's close.
AIB Group (Add, Closing Price €0.80);
M&T and Sovereign back on?; Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments --
"The FT reports this morning that Santander restarted discussions with M&T in
recent weeks about combining the Sovereign and M&T businesses after earlier
talks fell by the wayside in May. It appears the banks have sounded out
regulators about a combination, including the Fed. However, it appears that the
earlier sticking point - who controls the combined business - remains
unresolved. AIB’s has a 22.5% stake in M&T and disengagement from the stake
would release an estimated €1.15bn of capital for AIB if completed around the
$85 level, which is what we have in our models for the disposal (stock closed at
$85.45 overnight).
This would account for a reasonable portion of the €4.4bn
disposal gains/capital release we have modelled for AIB. Elsewhere, we note
commentary that the sale of BZW is down to two bidders ahead of Friday’s bid
deadline. AIB’s stake would generate an estimated €2bn if sold around the
current market price (closed yesterday around the PLN185 mark). So, hopefully,
this means the disposal activity remains on track, with the AIB CEO’s recent
commentary that the target was to complete its disposals by end Q3."