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News : Property Last Updated: Aug 18, 2010 - 9:35:40 AM


Markets News Tuesday: Dublin prime office rents 10% more expensive than average of  Amsterdam, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow; Belfast 60% lower
By Finfacts Team
Aug 17, 2010 - 8:34:44 AM

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During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest data.

Prime office rents have now stabilised at approximately €35 per sq ft or €376 per square metre in the Dublin market. It is encouraging that Dublin office rents are now more competitive relative to other competing cities as this may encourage more occupiers to locate here, according to commercial property agents CB Richard Ellis. However, rental costs in Dublin are still approximately 10% more expensive than the average rent being quoted for prime office accommodation in Amsterdam, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow - -  cities Dublin competes directly with for potential office occupiers.

CBRE says over the last decade, when Dublin office rents have been trading at a significant premium to other competing cities, office rents in Belfast have been trading at an average discount of 50% to other competing locations. With prime office rents in Belfast currently approximately 60% cheaper than in Dublin and wage costs considerably lower, this undoubtedly poses a threat to the Dublin office market, particularly if in the future, corporation tax in Northern Ireland is reduced to make it more comparable with the Republic, as is proposed.

SPECIAL REPORT: Dublin-A Comparative Analysis of Competing Office Rents

Economic View: 2010 Irish sovereign funding likely to be complete this morning, but at what price?; Goodbody chief economist, Dermot O’Leary, comments - - "As usual, there is a sense of nervousness ahead of this morning’s auction of Irish government debt given the increase in spreads over the past week or so. For much of the past year though, the background music for Irish government debt issuance has been far from ideal, whether it be due to concerns about the Greek sovereign crisis or domestic worries about the size of the budget deficit. In this regard, the news of the increased cost to the State of recapitalising Anglo Irish Bank is just next in line of the long list of these worries.

While spreads on 10-year government paper (which is being offered this morning along with 4-year paper) rose again yesterday to over 3%, it is somewhat fortunate that this is against the background of record low interest rates in core Europe and around the world. The drawback of this of course is that these rates are a reflection of the expectation of an upcoming slowdown in the global economy, which would affect an open economy like Ireland detrimentally anyway.

The NTMA has been very successful in its bond issuance program. This morning’s auction is likely to garner the required interest, and, indeed, complete the long-term funding requirement for the year, but the price at which these bonds are sold will give some idea of how uncertainty about the final cost to the State of the banking crisis is affecting the sovereign. As we stated yesterday, clarity is needed to reduce what we will call the 'Anglo Irish premium'."

Getting manufacturing jobs back, with Robert M. Kimmitt, Deloitte Center for Cross-Border Investment chairman:

Ireland to hit year's long-term funding target today: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments  -- "Today sees Ireland conduct its regular monthly government bond auction. If €1.5bn is raised (the auction size will be in the range €1-1.5bn, but all of the recent auctions have raised at least €1.5bn), the Irish state will all but reach its funding target for the year. The spreads on the bonds issued may finish somewhat wider than recent auctions thanks to recent jitters over the implications of the end of the original government banking guarantee. But developed-economy bonds have surged recently, so the absolute yield level (on the 2020 bonds for example) will probably be lower than at the last auction.

So far this year, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) has raised €18.4bn versus its stated target of €20bn for the full year. Moreover, if the final total reaches €20bn, it would represent pre-funding of up to €5bn for next year. Today's auction will mean that the year's target has been met with four months to spare. Yet that will hardly mean the end of the fundraising: scheduled bond auctions in September, October and November may add to the buffer for 2011.

The approach of a number of milestones seems to have caused some angst in the illiquid market for Irish bonds over the last month (secondary market 10-year spreads have widened to 300 basis points over bunds). The end of the original (CIFS) bank guarantee (introduced in September 2008) coincides with significant bank funding rollovers.

But the Irish banking system is in much better shape than at the start of this year, when 10-year government bond spreads were fully half what they are today. One of the main banks (Bank of Ireland) has been fully recapitalised, the other (Allied Irish Banks) has outlined its path and two separate stress tests have been carried out. The main sore remains nationalised Anglo Irish Bank, but we understand that the restructuring plan that had to be submitted to the EU may be unveiled next month. If the framework constitutes a credible solution (and its balance sheet is transparent), much of the uncertainty may dissipate. That will be timely, as September sees almost €9bn in Anglo funding to be rolled."

Ahead of the weekend federal election in Australia, George Tharenou, economist at UBS Australia, highlights the key issues to watch out for, with CNBC's Karen Tso, Bernard Lo and Martin Soong:

US Markets

On Monday, in New York, the Dow Jones fell 1 point to 10,302.

The S&P 500 added 0.01% and the Nasdaq rose 0.39%.

The Federal Reserve's bank lending survey published on Monday, shows that while previously the easing in loan standards was occurring primarily at the country's largest domestic banks, for the first time since late 2006, it found easier lending standards being imposed on small businesses.

The Fed defines small firms as those with annual sales of less than $50 million.

Resources continue to be China's strongest driver of outbound M&A activities but the tech and manufacturing sectors are also drawing increasing attention, says David Brown, Greater China private equity group leader at PwC. He talks to CNBC's Bernard Lo:

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.3% Tuesday.

The Nikkei dipped 0.38%; China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.38%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.87% and India's Sensex Index advanced 0.25%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

Concerns about US housing recovery mounting
UK bank Barclays says it falsified documents to facilitate circumvention of US trade sanctions
UK commercial property market capital growth at 15.4% since August 2009
US justice targets Eastern European credit card system hackers
Eurozone annual inflation rises to 1.7% in July

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has risen 0.43% Tuesday.

The ISEQ has gained 0.37% in Dublin.

CRH is up 0.95%; Bank of Ireland has dipped 1.02%.

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.2866 and at £0.8217.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Monday this week, the BDI rose 20 points or 0.81% to 2,488.

Crude oil for September 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $75.62 per barrel up 38 cents from Monday's close. In London, Brent for September delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $75.97.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,226.10, up 60 cents from Monday's close.

AIB Group (Add, Closing Price €0.80); M&T and Sovereign back on?; Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments  -- "The FT reports this morning that Santander restarted discussions with M&T in recent weeks about combining the Sovereign and M&T businesses after earlier talks fell by the wayside in May. It appears the banks have sounded out regulators about a combination, including the Fed. However, it appears that the earlier sticking point - who controls the combined business - remains unresolved. AIB’s has a 22.5% stake in M&T and disengagement from the stake would release an estimated €1.15bn of capital for AIB if completed around the $85 level, which is what we have in our models for the disposal (stock closed at $85.45 overnight).

This would account for a reasonable portion of the €4.4bn disposal gains/capital release we have modelled for AIB. Elsewhere, we note commentary that the sale of BZW is down to two bidders ahead of Friday’s bid deadline. AIB’s stake would generate an estimated €2bn if sold around the current market price (closed yesterday around the PLN185 mark). So, hopefully, this means the disposal activity remains on track, with the AIB CEO’s recent commentary that the target was to complete its disposals by end Q3."

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