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The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said the US economic recovery
is "more
modest" than expected and it will buy Treasury debt, in a signal that it will
take more extensive measures if necessary.
The Fed's decision to buy small amounts of government debt was seen by
analysts as a confirmation that the central bank will not scale back the emergency
support measures that it has put in place since 2007. While purchasing new
Treasury securities at a rate of $10bn to $20bn a month, compared with about a total of
$700bn on the Fed’s balance sheet, is not significant, it leaves open the
possibility of more aggressive moves, if the recovery was to continue to weaken.
In a downgrade of its assessment of the economy, the policy-making Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) said the recovery "has slowed in recent months,"
and that the "pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the
near term than had been anticipated." The committee reaffirmed its
commitment to keep its target for the benchmark federal funds rate, at which
banks lend to each other overnight, at "exceptionally low levels" for an
"extended period."
The US economy grew at a 2.4% annualised rate in the
second quarter and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
reported that the worst US
recession since the 1930s was even
worse than previously estimated,
reflecting bigger dips s in consumer
spending and housing, according to
annual
revisions released on July 30th. GDP
grew at a rate of 3.7% in Q 1 2010 and 5.0% in Q4
2009.
The world’s
largest economy shrank 4.1%
from the fourth quarter of 2007 to
the second quarter of 2009, compared
with the 3.7% fall previously
reported, the report showed.
Household spending fell 1.2%
in 2009, twice as much as previously
projected and the biggest drop
since 1942.
In its statement Tuesday, the Fed noted that high unemployment,
modest income growth, lower housing wealth and tight
credit were holding back household spending.
Meanwhile, lending by banks "has continued to
contract," it said, while construction remains
weak and employers remain reluctant to increase
payrolls.
The stock market responded to the FOMC statement
with the Dow rising more than 100 points but it
closed down 54.50 points, as investors reacted to the
Fed's downbeat outlook for the economy.
Michael Gapen of Barclays Capital commented: "Changes to the FOMC statement indicate that the Fed has lost
some confidence in the strength of the recovery… Our view is that simply
reinvesting the proceeds from maturing agency securities will not provide much
additional stimulus and, should the outlook continue to worsen, then the Fed
will likely initiate a new round of asset purchases, most likely in Treasury
securities."
Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities said:
"The makers of
domestic monetary policy took the middle road between doing nothing and
expanding quantitative easing. Maintaining the extended period language and
dampening their current assessment of the economy were non-events. The decision
to re-invest maturing Agency and Agency MBS was maintaining the status quo. If
the Fed had wanted to make a statement they would have added to the size of the
quantitative easing."
The Fed decides to keep fund
rates unchanged. Insight with CNBC's Eamon Javers & Steve Liesman; trillion
and multi-billion fund managers William
Gross, Pimco and Ken Volpert, Vanguard Funds:
The FOMC Statement:
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in June indicates that the pace of
recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent
months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but
remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income
growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business
spending on equipment and software is rising; however,
investment in nonresidential structures continues to be
weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.
Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending
has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee
anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of
resource utilization in a context of price stability,
although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be
more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower
in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack
continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term
inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be
subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the
federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to
anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates
of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and
stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for
an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a context of
price stability, the Committee will keep constant the
Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their
current level by reinvesting principal payments from
agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in
longer-term Treasury securities.The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal
Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they
mature.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic
outlook and financial developments and will employ its
policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery
and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben
S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman;
James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra
Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and
Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who
judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as
projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to
express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of
the federal funds rate for an extended period was no
longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to
adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic
and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe
that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's
holdings of longer-term securities at their current
level was required to support a return to the
Committee's policy objectives.