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Markets News Tuesday: China reports trade surplus of $28.7bn in July - - the highest since January 2009; UK house prices fall and retail sales slow
By Finfacts Team
Aug 10, 2010 - 9:18:32 AM
A Chinese warship arrives at Pireaus Port of Greece, Aug. 9, 2010. Two Chinese naval warships, the destroyer 'Guangzhou' and frigate 'Chaohu,' which are part of the fifth Chinese naval escort flotilla, arrived on Monday at Pireaus Port for a visit to Greece. Photo: Xinhua
During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to
holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest
data.
China on Tuesday reported a trade surplus of $28.7bn in July - - the highest
since January 2009 - - as exports jumped and imports' growth lagged. The surplus
of $28.7bn in
July compared with $20bn in June as exports rose 38.1% from an already
strong performance in the same month last year, the
General Administration of Customs (GAC) said, while
imports rose 22.7%. The exports
growth rate was down from a 43.9% surge in June. On a monthly basis, exports in
July were up 5.9% from June, but July's imports edged down 0.4% from the
previous month, the GAC said.
On June 19th, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, had announced an
ending of a 2-year old fixed pegged of the yuan/renminbi to the US dollar.
However, the authorities have only allowed a slight appreciation of 0.8% against the
US dollar, in the interval.
China's foreign trade totaled US$262.31bn last month, up 30.8% from a year
earlier.
The trade surplus for the first seven months totaled $83.93bn down 21.2% over
the same period last year.
Trade with the European Union, the country's largest trade partner, climbed
36.6% year on year in the January-July period to $263.16bn, the GAC said.
Trade with the United States jumped 30.6% during the period while that with
Japan expanded 34.9% in the first seven months compared with a year earlier.
Brazil overtook Russia to become China's 10th largest trade partner, with
bilateral trade surging 54.6% to $32.51bn from January to July.
Also today, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
reported that housing prices in major Chinese cities
rose 10.3% year on year in July, down from the 11.4% growth in June.
It was the third consecutive month that China's
property prices rose at a slower pace and the lowest growth rate in six months.
The New York Times reports today that the
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
quietly published a list late Sunday of 2,087
steel mills, cement works and other
energy-intensive factories required to close by
Sept. 30th.
Energy analysts described it as a significant
step toward the country’s energy-efficiency
goals, but not enough by itself to achieve them.
The Bank of Japan
has held off on policy steps and kept its view on the economy unchanged. Tey Tze
Ming, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, says Japan's economy is in much
better shape now, therefore giving the BoJ less urgency to intervene on the yen.
He talks to CNBC's Christine Tan and Yousef Gamal El-Din:
Economic View: UK consumer
confidence bites as house prices fall and retail sales growth slows; Goodbody
economist, Juliet Tennent, comments - - "Two reports
this morning provide an up to date picture on the state of the UK economy,
although the latest evidence is not encouraging. The RICS house price balance
turned negative in July for the first time in 12 months, falling to -8 from +8
in June vs. expectations of a drop to +5. This continues the trends in other
house price indicators, which have all pointed to softening in house prices of
late. Increased supply remains an issue following the increase in properties on
the market in recent months. New instructions to sell continued to edge higher
in July to 33 from 28 the previous month according to RICS. Buyer interest
remained at low levels falling to -10 from -6 in June. The pace of contraction
in the market appears to be gathering steam, with some surveyors saying that
they have been “staggered by the ferocity of the downturn” since June’s
emergency budget. With supply demand dynamics also continuing to deteriorate the
outlook for house prices in H2 looks shaky.
The BRC retail sales monitor was also weaker in July, with lfl sales growth
falling to 0.5% mom, from 1.2% mom in June, as spending flagged in the wake of
the World Cup. The headline number was flattered by food sales, which rose by
1.6%. Concerns around further fiscal tightening, potential job cuts and income
prospects are certainly weighing on consumer confidence. Despite the World Cup,
the summer period overall has been a poor one for spending trends, with lfl
sales up just 0.9% yoy in the May – July period. The outlook for both the UK
housing market and the consumer remains uncertain, as an imminent fiscal squeeze
and limited credit availability coupled with weak consumer confidence will prove
significant headwinds for the remainder of the year."
Chris Williamson,
chief economist at Markit, joined CNBC to look back the the credit crunch three
years ago:
US Markets
On Monday, the
Dow rose 45 points or 0.42% to 10,699.
The S&P 500
added 0.55% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.75%.
A look ahead to the new week
of trading with Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief equity strategist at US
fund manager BlackRock:
Asia Markets
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
dipped 0.9% Tuesday.
The Nikkei 225 declined 0.22%;
China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.66% on
fears growth might slow;
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.18% and India's Sensex
Index dropped 0.36%.
In
Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 0.46%
Tuesday.
The ISEQ has dipped 0.79% in Dublin.
CRH is off
1.65%; Elan is up 3.58%; AIB has slid 4.65% and BoI has slipped
1.84%.
Elan (Reduce, Closing Price $5.43): ELND005
progressing to Phase III despite missing trial endpoints;
Goodbody's Ian Hunter comments - -"After the market
closed last night, Elan announced that the compound it is
jointly developing with Transition Therapeutics for the
treatment of Alzheimer's disease (ELND005) did not achieve
statistical significance on its primary cognitive and functional
outcome measures. The partners are, however, moving the drug
candidate into a Phase III clinical trial. Given the small
number of patients remaining on the trial (the two highest dose
arms were terminated in December 2009 on safety concerns),
statistical significance was not expected. At the lowest dose
tested, it was observed that: (i) the drug appeared safe; (ii)
the dose achieved target drug levels in the cerebrospinal fluid;
and (iii) showed some effects on clinical endpoints.
On this evidence, the partners have
decided to move the drug into Phase III clinical trials. We note
that the companies "have agreed to work together to
systematically explore all strategic, operational and global
options for the asset", which we understand means that they will
be looking for a partner to share the risk/benefit through the
next development phase. Given the scale of Phase III Alzheimer's
clinical trials (Bapi is currently in four trials covering
c.4,000 patients), it is not unexpected that a partner be
sought. However, while reducing risk, Elan is also reducing the
potential reward, should the drug prove successful. The move
will also probably push back the timeline for progress of the
drug into Phase III. We have a $25m milestone to Transition
pencilled in for Q410. As this is probably payable on first
patient dosed in Phase III, we will now be pushing this out to
H111."
Refinancing debt, FY10 guidance confirmed and not separating out
EDT: Ian Hunter additionally commented -- "In a separate
announcement last night, Elan indicated that it will retire
c.$500m in debt due to mature in November 2011 and 2013 through
a combination of cash on hand and a contemplated refinancing.
The move should: (i) reduce gross debt by c.$300m to $1240m;
(ii) reduce annual interest costs by between $5m and $10m; and
(iii) extend Elan's debt maturity profile, with potentially no
debt repayments until November 2013. It currently has $300m due
in 2011. This move is not unexpected given that, as flagged by
management, as part of debt covenants, proceeds from the J&J
deal had to be reinvested in company development, or returned to
bond holders within a year of the deal. In its Q210 results,
Elan noted that c.$190m was outstanding. Our current model has
this being used to reduce debt in H210. It would appear that
Elan is looking to refinance the $300m due in FY11 and reduce
the $625m due in FY13 by $190m. The company has also confirmed
its financial guidance for FY10 and notes that it expects to be
cash flow positive for FY11. We currently have positive
operational cash flow in FY11 of $126m, which, when interest
charges, capex and tax are factored in, flips to a $36m loss at
the free cash flow line. We await the rates achieved in the
refinancing before adjusting our model. Elan also announced that
having completed its strategic review of EDT, it will not be
separating the business as "market conditions at this time are
not conducive to an appropriate valuation"."
The BDI
closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a
year earlier.
On
Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the
35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to
1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On
Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12%
to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Monday this week, the BDI rose 84 points or
4.14% to 2,114.
The spot price of an oz of gold is
trading in New York at $1,198.40,
down $2.80 from Monday's close.
Bank of
Ireland (Buy, Closing Price €0.855): H1 results due tomorrow; Goodbody's Eamonn
Hughes comments - - "BOI is due to report H1 results on August
11(tomorrow, Wednesday). We are anticipating a headline pretax loss of €1.1bn,
though this figure is premised on a €1.8bn credit charge, a figure which
incorporates a huge element of uncertainty around the timing of the recognition
of NAMA haircuts. With tax credits, we are forecasting a net loss of €0.9bn.
There will be a number of non-core items in the P&L to note as well. BOI
generated c.€0.6bn of liability management gains in H1, whilst changes to the
pension scheme arrangements will net a c.€0.7bn gain (net of deferred tax).
Pre-provision profit of €0.7bn is forecast in H1, down 11% yoy. Margin pressures
are expected to continue in H1, so while the balance sheet is expected to be
only modestly smaller (only one NAMA transfer by period end), we are forecasting
a 15% decline in net interest income in the period to €1.25bn. We expect total
income to be down 11%, though the risk bias is downwards. On the cost side, we
are also forecasting an 11% decline yoy, though expect this pace to slip by year
end as comparisons get a little tougher into H2.
Our
credit line incurs a charge of €1.8bn, which represents a Q309 annualised
run-rate (bearing in mind there was no Q409 due to the truncated 9 month period)
plus one-third of the group’s implied residual NAMA haircut (35%). (For the
record, we book any mark-downs on NAMA assets through the provisions line, to
simplify the like-for-likes, though acknowledge that BOI is likely to employ the
treatment used by AIB last week through the income line on its NAMA transfers to
date). Elsewhere, we will be interested in the bank’s funding and capital
metrics. Preview note to follow with more details."