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News : International Last Updated: Aug 11, 2010 - 9:39:12 AM


Markets News Tuesday: China reports trade surplus of $28.7bn in July - - the highest since January 2009; UK house prices fall and retail sales slow
By Finfacts Team
Aug 10, 2010 - 9:18:32 AM

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A Chinese warship arrives at Pireaus Port of Greece, Aug. 9, 2010. Two Chinese naval warships, the destroyer 'Guangzhou' and frigate 'Chaohu,' which are part of the fifth Chinese naval escort flotilla, arrived on Monday at Pireaus Port for a visit to Greece. Photo: Xinhua

During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest data.

China on Tuesday reported a trade surplus of $28.7bn in July - - the highest since January 2009  - - as exports jumped and imports' growth lagged. The surplus of $28.7bn in July compared with $20bn in June as exports rose 38.1% from an already strong performance in the same month last year, the General Administration of Customs  (GAC) said, while imports rose 22.7%. The exports growth rate was down from a 43.9% surge in June. On a monthly basis, exports in July were up 5.9% from June, but July's imports edged down 0.4% from the previous month, the GAC said.

On June 19th, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, had announced an ending of a 2-year old fixed pegged of the yuan/renminbi to the US dollar. However, the authorities have only allowed a slight appreciation of 0.8% against the US dollar, in the interval.

China's foreign trade totaled US$262.31bn last month, up 30.8% from a year earlier.

The trade surplus for the first seven months totaled $83.93bn down 21.2% over the same period last year.

Trade with the European Union, the country's largest trade partner, climbed 36.6% year on year in the January-July period to $263.16bn, the GAC said.

Trade with the United States jumped 30.6% during the period while that with Japan expanded 34.9% in the first seven months compared with a year earlier.

Brazil overtook Russia to become China's 10th largest trade partner, with bilateral trade surging 54.6% to $32.51bn from January to July.

Also today, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that housing prices in major Chinese cities rose 10.3% year on year in July, down from the 11.4% growth in June.

It was the third consecutive month that China's property prices rose at a slower pace and the lowest growth rate in six months.

The New York Times reports today that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology quietly published a list late Sunday of 2,087 steel mills, cement works and other energy-intensive factories required to close by Sept. 30th.

Energy analysts described it as a significant step toward the country’s energy-efficiency goals, but not enough by itself to achieve them.

The Bank of Japan has held off on policy steps and kept its view on the economy unchanged. Tey Tze Ming, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, says Japan's economy is in much better shape now, therefore giving the BoJ less urgency to intervene on the yen. He talks to CNBC's Christine Tan and Yousef Gamal El-Din:

Economic View: UK consumer confidence bites as house prices fall and retail sales growth slows; Goodbody economist, Juliet Tennent, comments - - "Two reports this morning provide an up to date picture on the state of the UK economy, although the latest evidence is not encouraging. The RICS house price balance turned negative in July for the first time in 12 months, falling to -8 from +8 in June vs. expectations of a drop to +5. This continues the trends in other house price indicators, which have all pointed to softening in house prices of late. Increased supply remains an issue following the increase in properties on the market in recent months. New instructions to sell continued to edge higher in July to 33 from 28 the previous month according to RICS. Buyer interest remained at low levels falling to -10 from -6 in June. The pace of contraction in the market appears to be gathering steam, with some surveyors saying that they have been “staggered by the ferocity of the downturn” since June’s emergency budget. With supply demand dynamics also continuing to deteriorate the outlook for house prices in H2 looks shaky.

The BRC retail sales monitor was also weaker in July, with lfl sales growth falling to 0.5% mom, from 1.2% mom in June, as spending flagged in the wake of the World Cup. The headline number was flattered by food sales, which rose by 1.6%. Concerns around further fiscal tightening, potential job cuts and income prospects are certainly weighing on consumer confidence. Despite the World Cup, the summer period overall has been a poor one for spending trends, with lfl sales up just 0.9% yoy in the May – July period. The outlook for both the UK housing market and the consumer remains uncertain, as an imminent fiscal squeeze and limited credit availability coupled with weak consumer confidence will prove significant headwinds for the remainder of the year."

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, joined CNBC to look back the the credit crunch three years ago:

US Markets

On Monday, the Dow rose 45 points or 0.42% to 10,699.

The S&P 500 added 0.55% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.75%.

A look ahead to the new week of trading with Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief equity strategist at US fund manager BlackRock:

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.9% Tuesday.

The Nikkei 225 declined 0.22%; China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.66% on fears growth might slow; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.18% and India's Sensex Index dropped 0.36%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

National Irish Bank reports operating profit of €26m in H1 2010 before bad debt charges of €367m; Danske Bank posts profit before tax of €420m - - up 32% year on year
Eurozone Q2 2010 Economic Growth: Economists warn that one swallow does not make a summer
Higher Education and the Economy: Increasing educational attainment not magic bullet for economic growth
Longlist announced for the 2010 Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award
Dr. Peter Morici: Fixing the US economy
AIB announces rises in residential mortgage rates
Irish Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in July
Bord Gáis Energy Index fell in July as the euro recovered

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off 0.46% Tuesday.

The ISEQ has dipped 0.79% in Dublin.

CRH is off 1.65%; Elan is up 3.58%; AIB has slid 4.65% and BoI has slipped 1.84%.

Elan (Reduce, Closing Price $5.43): ELND005 progressing to Phase III despite missing trial endpoints; Goodbody's Ian Hunter comments  - -"After the market closed last night, Elan announced that the compound it is jointly developing with Transition Therapeutics for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (ELND005) did not achieve statistical significance on its primary cognitive and functional outcome measures. The partners are, however, moving the drug candidate into a Phase III clinical trial. Given the small number of patients remaining on the trial (the two highest dose arms were terminated in December 2009 on safety concerns), statistical significance was not expected. At the lowest dose tested, it was observed that: (i) the drug appeared safe; (ii) the dose achieved target drug levels in the cerebrospinal fluid; and (iii) showed some effects on clinical endpoints.

On this evidence, the partners have decided to move the drug into Phase III clinical trials. We note that the companies "have agreed to work together to systematically explore all strategic, operational and global options for the asset", which we understand means that they will be looking for a partner to share the risk/benefit through the next development phase. Given the scale of Phase III Alzheimer's clinical trials (Bapi is currently in four trials covering c.4,000 patients), it is not unexpected that a partner be sought. However, while reducing risk, Elan is also reducing the potential reward, should the drug prove successful. The move will also probably push back the timeline for progress of the drug into Phase III. We have a $25m milestone to Transition pencilled in for Q410. As this is probably payable on first patient dosed in Phase III, we will now be pushing this out to H111."

Refinancing debt, FY10 guidance confirmed and not separating out EDT: Ian Hunter additionally commented -- "In a separate announcement last night, Elan indicated that it will retire c.$500m in debt due to mature in November 2011 and 2013 through a combination of cash on hand and a contemplated refinancing. The move should: (i) reduce gross debt by c.$300m to $1240m; (ii) reduce annual interest costs by between $5m and $10m; and (iii) extend Elan's debt maturity profile, with potentially no debt repayments until November 2013. It currently has $300m due in 2011. This move is not unexpected given that, as flagged by management, as part of debt covenants, proceeds from the J&J deal had to be reinvested in company development, or returned to bond holders within a year of the deal. In its Q210 results, Elan noted that c.$190m was outstanding. Our current model has this being used to reduce debt in H210. It would appear that Elan is looking to refinance the $300m due in FY11 and reduce the $625m due in FY13 by $190m. The company has also confirmed its financial guidance for FY10 and notes that it expects to be cash flow positive for FY11. We currently have positive operational cash flow in FY11 of $126m, which, when interest charges, capex and tax are factored in, flips to a $36m loss at the free cash flow line. We await the rates achieved in the refinancing before adjusting our model. Elan also announced that having completed its strategic review of EDT, it will not be separating the business as "market conditions at this time are not conducive to an appropriate valuation"."

European Benchmarks

Irish Share Prices

Irish Stock Market Capitalisation by Company

Key Index Performance Statistics

Euribor Rates

AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.3174 and at £0.8330.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Monday this week, the BDI rose 84 points or 4.14% to 2,114.

Crude oil for September 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $81.01 per barrel down 47 cents from Monday's close. In London, Brent for September delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $80.45.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,198.40, down $2.80 from Monday's close.

Bank of Ireland (Buy, Closing Price €0.855): H1 results due tomorrow; Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes comments  - - "BOI is due to report H1 results on August 11(tomorrow, Wednesday). We are anticipating a headline pretax loss of €1.1bn, though this figure is premised on a €1.8bn credit charge, a figure which incorporates a huge element of uncertainty around the timing of the recognition of NAMA haircuts. With tax credits, we are forecasting a net loss of €0.9bn. There will be a number of non-core items in the P&L to note as well. BOI generated c.€0.6bn of liability management gains in H1, whilst changes to the pension scheme arrangements will net a c.€0.7bn gain (net of deferred tax).

Pre-provision profit of €0.7bn is forecast in H1, down 11% yoy. Margin pressures are expected to continue in H1, so while the balance sheet is expected to be only modestly smaller (only one NAMA transfer by period end), we are forecasting a 15% decline in net interest income in the period to €1.25bn. We expect total income to be down 11%, though the risk bias is downwards. On the cost side, we are also forecasting an 11% decline yoy, though expect this pace to slip by year end as comparisons get a little tougher into H2.

Our credit line incurs a charge of €1.8bn, which represents a Q309 annualised run-rate (bearing in mind there was no Q409 due to the truncated 9 month period) plus one-third of the group’s implied residual NAMA haircut (35%). (For the record, we book any mark-downs on NAMA assets through the provisions line, to simplify the like-for-likes, though acknowledge that BOI is likely to employ the treatment used by AIB last week through the income line on its NAMA transfers to date). Elsewhere, we will be interested in the bank’s funding and capital metrics. Preview note to follow with more details."

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