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News : International Last Updated: Aug 10, 2010 - 7:40:38 AM


Markets News Monday: Eurozone this week to show 'really exceptional' growth in the second quarter; Aer Lingus traffic dips in July
By Finfacts Team
Aug 9, 2010 - 8:59:09 AM

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel (2nd from left) at a church service on July 31, in the city of Duisburg, for the 21 victims of the fatal crush at the Love Parade dance music festival.

During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest data.

The Eurozone is expected to show what ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, termed  'really exceptional' growth in the second quarter, when Eurostat, the EU statistics agency, reports on Friday. At his press conference in Frankfurt last Thursday, Trichet said "the second quarter seems to be really exceptional." This suggests that GDP (gross domestic product)  in Q2 may be stronger than Bundesbank's projection of +1.2% q/q made in June 2010.  Trichet said   data for the third quarter are "better than expected."

Germany which accounts for about 30% of the single currency area's output, may have grown by as much as 2% in the quarter, which would be the best performance since reunification in 1990. While German industrial production dipped by 0.6% in June compared with May, according to data published on Friday,  it followed months of rapid growth. Second-quarter industrial production was 5.4% than the previous quarter. On Thursday, it was reported that German manufacturing orders rose by 3.2% on the month in June and 7.7% in Q2. Today, Germany reported that exports increased by 3.8% in June on May 2010.

The VDMA German engineering association reported last week that orders placed with its members in June had been 62% higher than a year before.

Meanwhile, Italy on Friday reported a rise of 0.4% in its Q2 GDP, with rising exports to Germany, its largest foreign market.  The Spanish central bank forecast Spanish GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2.

On Friday, Germany and France will release their GDP data and France has reported dips in household consumption and net exports only being offset by government investment from remaining stimulus programmes. Analysts expect growth of 1.4% over the year to the second quarter.

Aer Lingus: The former State airline today reported that it carried just over one million passengers in July, a fall of 8.7% from the same month last year.

However, the load factor, or percentage of seats filled, rose by 3.5 points from July last year to 85.8%. Passenger numbers on short-haul routes dipped 8.3% to 921,000, while long haul numbers dived 12.4% to 99,000.

The load factor on the long-haul routes however, jumped to 89.8% as the airline had cut routes and flights over the past year. The load factor on short-haul routes dipped 1.6 points to 84%.

For the first seven months of 2010, passenger number are down almost 10% to 5.6m and the load factor is up 1.9 points to 77.3%.

Marshall Mays, chief investment officer of Emerging Alpha - Wallbanck Group, believes Japan is the best long-term bet for conservative growth on fundamentals. He tells CNBC's Oriel Morrison that China's industrial demand will help Japan's recovery:

Economic View: US employment report provides much food for thought ahead of Fed meeting; Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments  - - "Although equity markets have regained some ground of late, confidence remains fragile, a fact that was very much evident on Friday with the release of the latest US payrolls report. With the labour market recovery proving sluggish at best, the report will have provided much food for thought for the Fed ahead of their meeting tomorrow. Public sector hiring around the Census remains a distorting factor, but there is no denying the underlying poor health of the US labour market. Downward revisions totalled almost 100K in July and the private sector addition to the headcount has averaged just over 50K in each of the three months to July.

Job gains remain concentrated also, with July’s hiring dominated by manufacturing, health and education. The unemployment rate remains stable at 9.5% but this is largely a reflection of significant labour force outflows. On an annual basis employment was down 0.2%, despite the fact that we are in the fifth consecutive quarter since the US exited recession and growth has rebounded 3.2% from its trough. By all accounts it is a jobless recovery that has emerged in the US economy thus far. The fact that temp employment, a bell weather labour market indicator, dropped in July (by 6K) for the first time since last September is not an encouraging sign either. The current trends certainly push interest rate increases even further into the horizon, while debate continues to centre on whether the Fed will have to engage in further asset purchasing programmes. Last month’s statement did imply a slight downgrade of the economic outlook and rhetoric from Bernanke since that time has hinted at ongoing concerns on this front. Tomorrow’s statement will indicate whether this is seen as enough to move the Fed back into quantitative easing mode."

Construction sector recession still leading to employment cuts and bad debts: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments  - - "The latest PMI from Ulster Bank shows that construction is still in recession. The reading of 45.0 is five points below the break-even mark of 50. Yet activity cannot decline too much more: new business is actually expanding for the first time since 2007 from the rock bottom base. But the construction recession in prices and volumes is still affecting macro aggregates. It surely helped lead to the renewed rise in the Live Register in the last few months (after more than six months of stability) and the lagged impact of reduced collateral value and activity is causing ongoing loan impairment for banks.

The PMI construction index is actually at its highest point since July 2007. But it only tells us that output is shrinking at its slowest pace for three years. Much like the services and manufacturing PMIs however, turning points are flagged by the new business components. In construction, new business is back above 50 for the first time in three years. After six or so months of gains, the overall index usually follows. So it will be important to see if that new business level is maintained in the months ahead. Unfortunately, cuts in the public capital programme mean that the barrier for a return to growth is high.

Some people have asked us why the labour market is yet to fully stabilise and have questioned the extent of the impairment problems for the banks in the context of an economy that bottomed in early 2010. Those trends are explained by two variables in particular: first, not every sector has bottomed and second, there are long lags involved. Crucially, construction, which has caused most of the damage in the economy, will not return to growth until 2012 at the earliest. We know that even if private building volumes reach a floor in early 2011, government spending is set to be cut by 10%. Moreover, residential prices will still be falling although commercial prices may trough within 6-9 months. That means the cash value of the sector will decline further: price and volume both matter for bad debts. Lags are important too. There is a lag of about 6-9 months between the bottom in the total economy and the peak in unemployment. But the lag between the end of recession in construction and related industries and the completion of loan impairments may be even longer."

CNBC's John Fortt, Mary Thompson and Herb Greenberg have the details on HP's Mark Hurd stepping down as CEO because of expense claim violations linked to a claim of sexual harassment . The marketing contractor linked to former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive is Jodie Fisher, an actress who most recently appeared in the reality TV show "Age of Love." In a statement Sunday released by her celebrity attorney Gloria Allred, Fisher said she was "saddened" that Hurd lost his job as H-P CEO.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell less than 0.1% Monday after Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth outlook for Japan.

The US investment bank cut its full-year 2011 forecast for growth in Japan’s real GDP (gross domestic product) to 1.4% from its previous outlook of 1.7%. It also lowered Japan’s 2010 GDP estimate by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. Goldman cut the US growth forecast in 2011 to 1.9% from 2.5% while maintaining its forecast for this year at 2.7%.

The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.72%; China's Shanghai Composite added  0.41%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.63% and India's Sensex Index advanced 0.45%.

Asia benchmarks

Finfacts Reports

German exports rose by 28.5% and imports by 31.7% in June compared with 2009; Exports gained 3.8% in month; Value of imports was highest since 1950
Federal Reserve to revise down forecast for US economy; Nonfinancial companies hold over $8.0trn in cash or 7% of assets -- highest since 1963
The IMF view on the progress of reforms in Greece
Irish Construction: First rise in new business since March 2007
Government announces additional €37m in funding for Irish academic research
Total US nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July; The broad measure of unemployment was 16.5%

In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 1.03% Monday.

The ISEQ has risen 0.57% in Dublin.

Aer Lingus added 1.84%; CRH is up 1.69%; AIB has gained 1.09% and BoI has climbed 2.06%.

Dragon Oil (Buy, Closing Price £4.48); H1’10 Results – As expected; Goodbody's Gerry Hennigan comments  -- "With H1 gross production (46.4 kbopd), the realised oil price ($75/bbl) and the net cash balance ($1.16bn, including abandonment liabilities of $155m) already divulged, interest this morning in the Dragon H1 results statement relates more to commentary regarding infrastructure and non-operating events than the actual results. That said, beyond the headline figures there is limited incremental news in the results statement. As was the case in the Trading Statement, issues relating to infrastructure were cited as a factor behind the H1 production shortfall (annual growth of 8.4%) over prior guidance (average annual growth in the range of 10%-15%). In terms of gas, formal discussions with the Turkmens are ongoing with investment, both in design and infrastructure taking place to enable Dragon to process the resource (3.1 tcf). While there is nothing in the statement to suggest that a gas sale agreement is imminent, developing the gas resource will at the very least add value in the shape of liquids to be extracted from processing.

In terms of the results, revenue for the year amounted to $276.3m (up 30.8% YoY), with adj. EPS of 26.6c compared to our estimate of 25.5c. Variances largely relate to a lower cost of sales, but also lower interest charges. Acknowledging the previously highlighted H1 build in crude inventory, the statement adds that the inventory overhang has been sold since the end of the period, which we view as a positive. Re-iterating the recent Trading Statement guidance for the period 2010-2012 in terms of: (i) target production growth in the range of 10%-15%; (ii) the planned drilling of eleven development wells this year out of a target of 40 to 2012; and (iii) capex in the range of $600m - $700m, of which $250m is expected to be outlaid in 2010; has been maintained. In terms of diversification, potential opportunities within the sphere of interest (region around the Caspian Sea, the Middle East and Africa) continue to be evaluated. On balance, while positives in the statement include the clear-out of the inventory overhang and the firm guidance, there is limited incremental news in the statement this morning with the results in line with expectations."

European Benchmarks

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AIB Daily Report

Bank of Ireland Daily Report

Currencies 

The euro is trading at $1.3276 and at £0.8322.

For live currency updates, check the right-hand column of the Finfacts home page.

The US dollar fell to $1.6038 per euro on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 - an-all time record.

Commodities

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for dry commodities, hit an all-time High of 11,771 on the 21st of May, 2008. From that time it reversed and on the 5th of December, 2008 it hit a low of 663 - - close to a 1986 low.

The BDI closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289% in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a year earlier.

On Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index  fell for the 35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to 1,700 points, Bloomberg report.

On Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12% to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak; on Friday last, the BDI rose 52 points or 2.63% to 2,030.

Crude oil for September 2010 delivery is currently trading on the Chicago York Mercantile Exchange (CME/Nymex) at $81.12 per barrel up 42 cents from Friday's close. In London, Brent for September delivery is trading on the International Commodities Exchange at $80.55.

Gold spot price

The spot price of an oz of gold is trading in New York at $1,208.50, up  $2.80 from Friday's close.

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