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Markets News Monday: Eurozone this week to show 'really exceptional' growth in the second quarter; Aer Lingus traffic dips in July
By Finfacts Team
Aug 9, 2010 - 8:59:09 AM
German Chancellor Angela Merkel (2nd from left) at a church service on July 31, in the city of Duisburg, for the 21 victims of the fatal crush at the Love Parade dance music festival.
During August, we will not be providing the 'Markets Afternoon' report due to
holiday and site development work. Use the relevant links below for the latest
data.
The Eurozone is expected to show what ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet,
termed 'really exceptional' growth in the second quarter, when Eurostat,
the EU statistics agency, reports on Friday. At his press conference in Frankfurt last Thursday, Trichet said "the second quarter seems to be really
exceptional." This suggests that GDP (gross domestic product) in Q2 may be stronger than Bundesbank's projection of +1.2% q/q made in June 2010.
Trichet said data for the third quarter are "better than
expected."
Germany which accounts for about 30% of the single currency area's output,
may have grown by as much as 2% in the quarter, which would be the best
performance since reunification in 1990. While German industrial production
dipped by 0.6% in June compared with May,
according to data published on Friday, it followed months of
rapid growth. Second-quarter industrial production was 5.4% than
the previous quarter. On Thursday, it was reported that
German manufacturing orders rose by 3.2% on the month in June
and 7.7% in Q2. Today,
Germany reported that exports increased by 3.8% in June on May 2010.
The VDMA German engineering association reported last week that orders
placed with its members in June had been 62% higher than a year before.
Meanwhile, Italy on Friday reported a rise of 0.4% in its Q2 GDP, with rising
exports to Germany, its largest foreign market. The Spanish central bank
forecast Spanish GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2.
On Friday, Germany and France will release their GDP data and France has
reported dips in household consumption and net exports only being offset by
government investment from remaining stimulus programmes. Analysts expect growth
of 1.4% over the year to the second quarter.
Aer Lingus: The former State airline today reported that it carried just over one
million passengers in July, a fall of 8.7% from the same month
last year.
However, the load factor, or percentage of seats filled,
rose by 3.5 points from July last year to 85.8%. Passenger numbers on short-haul routes
dipped 8.3% to 921,000,
while long haul numbers dived 12.4% to 99,000.
The load factor on the long-haul routes however, jumped to 89.8%
as the airline had cut routes and flights over the past year. The load factor on
short-haul routes dipped 1.6 points to 84%.
For the first seven months of 2010, passenger number are down
almost 10% to 5.6m and the load factor is up 1.9
points to 77.3%.
Marshall Mays, chief
investment officer of Emerging Alpha - Wallbanck Group, believes Japan is the
best long-term bet for conservative growth on fundamentals. He tells CNBC's
Oriel Morrison that China's industrial demand will help Japan's recovery:
Economic View: US employment report provides much food for thought ahead
of Fed meeting; Goodbody economist, Deirdre Ryan, comments - -
"Although equity markets have regained some ground of late, confidence remains
fragile, a fact that was very much evident on Friday with the release of the
latest US payrolls report. With the labour market recovery proving sluggish at
best, the report will have provided much food for thought for the Fed ahead of
their meeting tomorrow. Public sector hiring around the Census remains a
distorting factor, but there is no denying the underlying poor health of the US
labour market. Downward revisions totalled almost 100K in July and the private
sector addition to the headcount has averaged just over 50K in each of the three
months to July.
Job gains remain concentrated also, with July’s hiring dominated by
manufacturing, health and education. The unemployment rate remains stable at
9.5% but this is largely a reflection of significant labour force outflows. On
an annual basis employment was down 0.2%, despite the fact that we are in the
fifth consecutive quarter since the US exited recession and growth has rebounded
3.2% from its trough. By all accounts it is a jobless recovery that has emerged
in the US economy thus far. The fact that temp employment, a bell weather labour
market indicator, dropped in July (by 6K) for the first time since last
September is not an encouraging sign either. The current trends certainly push
interest rate increases even further into the horizon, while debate continues to
centre on whether the Fed will have to engage in further asset purchasing
programmes. Last month’s statement did imply a slight downgrade of the economic
outlook and rhetoric from Bernanke since that time has hinted at ongoing
concerns on this front. Tomorrow’s statement will indicate whether this is seen
as enough to move the Fed back into quantitative easing mode."
Construction sector recession still leading to employment cuts
and bad debts: Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments - -
"The latest PMI from Ulster Bank shows that construction is still
in recession. The reading of 45.0 is five points below the
break-even mark of 50. Yet activity cannot decline too much more:
new business is actually expanding for the first time since 2007
from the rock bottom base. But the construction recession in prices
and volumes is still affecting macro aggregates. It surely helped
lead to the renewed rise in the Live Register in the last few months
(after more than six months of stability) and the lagged impact of
reduced collateral value and activity is causing ongoing loan
impairment for banks.
The PMI construction index is actually at its highest point
since July 2007. But it only tells us that output is shrinking at
its slowest pace for three years. Much like the services and
manufacturing PMIs however, turning points are flagged by the new
business components. In construction, new business is back above 50
for the first time in three years. After six or so months of gains,
the overall index usually follows. So it will be important to see if
that new business level is maintained in the months ahead.
Unfortunately, cuts in the public capital programme mean that the
barrier for a return to growth is high.
Some people have asked us why the labour market is yet to
fully stabilise and have questioned the extent of the impairment
problems for the banks in the context of an economy that bottomed in
early 2010. Those trends are explained by two variables in
particular: first, not every sector has bottomed and second, there
are long lags involved. Crucially, construction, which has caused
most of the damage in the economy, will not return to growth until
2012 at the earliest. We know that even if private building volumes
reach a floor in early 2011, government spending is set to be cut by
10%. Moreover, residential prices will still be falling although
commercial prices may trough within 6-9 months. That means the cash
value of the sector will decline further: price and volume both
matter for bad debts. Lags are important too. There is a lag of
about 6-9 months between the bottom in the total economy and the
peak in unemployment. But the lag between the end of recession in
construction and related industries and the completion of loan
impairments may be even longer."
CNBC's John Fortt, Mary
Thompson and Herb Greenberg have the details on HP's Mark Hurd stepping down as
CEO because of expense claim violations linked to a claim of sexual harassment . The marketing contractor linked to former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive
is Jodie Fisher, an actress who most recently appeared in the reality TV show
"Age of Love." In a statement Sunday released by her celebrity attorney
Gloria Allred, Fisher said she was "saddened" that Hurd lost his job
as H-P CEO.
Asia Markets
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell less
than 0.1% Monday after Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth outlook for
Japan.
The US investment bank cut its
full-year 2011 forecast for growth in Japan’s real GDP (gross domestic product)
to 1.4% from its previous outlook of 1.7%. It also lowered Japan’s 2010 GDP
estimate by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. Goldman cut the US growth forecast in
2011 to 1.9% from 2.5% while maintaining its forecast for this year at 2.7%.
The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.72%; China's
Shanghai Composite added 0.41%; Australia's S&P/ASX
200 Index rose 0.63% and India's Sensex Index advanced
0.45%.
In Europe, the
Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 1.03%
Monday.
The ISEQ
has risen 0.57% in Dublin.
Aer
Lingus added 1.84%; CRH is
up 1.69%; AIB has gained 1.09% and BoI has climbed 2.06%.
Dragon Oil (Buy, Closing Price
£4.48); H1’10 Results – As expected; Goodbody's Gerry Hennigan comments
-- "With H1 gross production (46.4 kbopd), the realised oil price ($75/bbl)
and the net cash balance ($1.16bn, including abandonment liabilities of
$155m) already divulged, interest this morning in the Dragon H1 results
statement relates more to commentary regarding infrastructure and
non-operating events than the actual results. That said, beyond the
headline figures there is limited incremental news in the results
statement. As was the case in the Trading Statement, issues relating to
infrastructure were cited as a factor behind the H1 production shortfall
(annual growth of 8.4%) over prior guidance (average annual growth in
the range of 10%-15%). In terms of gas, formal discussions with the
Turkmens are ongoing with investment, both in design and infrastructure
taking place to enable Dragon to process the resource (3.1 tcf). While
there is nothing in the statement to suggest that a gas sale agreement
is imminent, developing the gas resource will at the very least add
value in the shape of liquids to be extracted from processing.
In terms
of the results, revenue for the year amounted to $276.3m (up 30.8% YoY),
with adj. EPS of 26.6c compared to our estimate of 25.5c. Variances
largely relate to a lower cost of sales, but also lower interest
charges. Acknowledging the previously highlighted H1 build in crude
inventory, the statement adds that the inventory overhang has been sold
since the end of the period, which we view as a positive. Re-iterating
the recent Trading Statement guidance for the period 2010-2012 in terms
of: (i) target production growth in the range of 10%-15%; (ii) the
planned drilling of eleven development wells this year out of a target
of 40 to 2012; and (iii) capex in the range of $600m - $700m, of which
$250m is expected to be outlaid in 2010; has been maintained. In terms
of diversification, potential opportunities within the sphere of
interest (region around the Caspian Sea, the Middle East and Africa)
continue to be evaluated. On balance, while positives in the statement
include the clear-out of the inventory overhang and the firm guidance,
there is limited incremental news in the statement this morning with the
results in line with expectations."
The BDI
closed at 3,005 on Thursday, Dec 31st - - a rise of 289%
in 2009. The index averaged 59% lower in 2009 than a
year earlier.
On
Thursday, July 15, 2010, the index fell for the
35th straight session, by 9 points, or 0.537%, to
1,700 points,
Bloomberg report.
On
Friday July16th, the BDI rose 20 points or 1.12%
to 1,700 to break the 35-session losing streak;
on Friday last, the BDI rose 52 points or 2.63% to
2,030.