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The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has
released the transcript of an interview given by the deputy director of the
Fund's European Department on the progress of reforms in Greece.
While major challenges lie ahead, the IMF says
the program is
off to a strong start and progress has been made, stated Poul Tomsen who is in
charge of the IMF team in Athens, to the Greek newspaper, Kathimerini.
How would you evaluate Greece’s progress,
three months after the signing of the memorandum? Greece has done well -- the program has started very
strongly. You will recall that, from the outset, Greece faced two fundamental
problems: a high fiscal deficit—which threatened its access to capital markets;
and a lack of competitiveness—which threatened the country’s future growth and
development. There has been significant progress on both these fronts. In the
short term, emphasis has been rightly given to the urgent issue of fiscal
adjustment. Here, while there have been some difficulties containing the
expenditures of local government organizations, the government has exceeded
expectations at a national level. As a result, the overall deficit target for
the end of June was met.
Challenges and risks remain, of course. But in
this first phase of the program, it can be said that there has been encouraging
progress on the deficit issue. While maintaining this momentum, the next phase
of the program will need to place even greater emphasis on the structural
reforms needed to promote growth, competitiveness and jobs—and to ensure that
the program is socially fair and balanced, which has been a major objective from
the beginning.
What about the progress of structural
reforms? These reforms are aimed at
restoring growth and competitiveness—which are key to increase jobs and ensure a
rise in people’s living standards. And again, Greece has made an impressive
start in this area. In fact, I would venture that there are really very few
European countries that have promoted so many reforms in such a short timeframe.
The pension reform is significant and places Greece at the European forefront in
terms of addressing this issue. Together with significant reforms in the labor
market, this signifies a really impressive beginning.
But there is a long road ahead and no room for
complacency. It will be crucial in the next phase of the program to push even
further with the structural reforms that are essential for growth and
employment.
What are the next steps that need to be
taken? As I said, the priority now
is to advance further the reforms that can restore growth -- such as
liberalizing closed professions, overcoming obstacles to development of the
tourism sector, and of the retail market. At the same time, it is imperative
that the reforms take place in a socially fair way. Employees and pensioners
have contributed to the program in a major way by accepting painful reductions
in wages and pensions. It is absolutely vital to ensure that all other elements
of Greek society also pay their fair share.
This means, for example, acting aggressively to
improve tax collection and the enforcement of taxation legislation—particularly
to reduce tax evasion by high-income and wealthy individuals. This is a big
challenge and the government’s efforts in this direction are ongoing. This
momentum must be maintained because it is essential both to secure increased
revenue as well as fairness in who is carrying the burden of adjustment.
You mentioned closed professions. Do you
think that the way in which the government has handled the truckers’ issue was
correct? This was a very difficult
issue to handle but, yes, I think the government showed decisiveness and sent
powerful messages to other sectors as well. The government showed that it is
determined to implement the reforms needed to do what is right for the future
growth of the country and to give more opportunities to all the Greek people --
even if some vested interests are against them.
What is happening as far as the high
costs of the healthcare sector are concerned? Steps have been taken, such as the placement of
chartered auditors in hospitals, transparency in drafting balance sheets and the
rationalization of medical supplies.
What changes are required regarding the
local government organizations? The
“Kallikratis” reform is really significant. We think that it will bring a
significant containment in expenses --which could reach as much as €1.5bn in the
next three years. There is a rationalization process with the cut-down of many
layers of bureaucracy, unnecessary activities, and costs. Certainly this reform
is an important part of the program.
Will more taxes – direct or indirect – be
needed? We all recognize that it is
difficult to increase revenues in a shrinking economy—and we were expecting this
from the beginning. The government is taking steps to increase tax revenues—for
example, with the establishment of five special units focused on improving the
fight against tax evasion. So, the revenues will increase without increasing tax
rates beyond what is already in the program.
Should there be mergers of banks? And
should foreign banks enter the Greek market? Greek banks are well capitalized. The Financial
Stability Fund—established under the program—has €10bn to help backstop any
problems that might arise, which we feel is adequate. I would also note that, in
the recent European stress tests, only one Greek bank was reported as having
problem. That said, the consolidation of the Greek banking sector is expected to
be a crucial element of the strategy for the further reinforcement of the banks.
The participation of foreign banks can be important in this context.
What are the main causes for an inflation
rate that is higher compared to what was expected? It’s true that inflation has been higher than
originally expected—and we have revised our estimate for 2010 to 4-3/4 percent.
We underestimated the consequences of the higher indirect taxes that were
front-loaded at the beginning of the program. However, we do not see signs of
second-round effects or of an inflationary spiral. The true meaning of
“inflation” is that there is a longer-term trend to increase prices—and
again, we do not see that. What we do see—and what the increase in inflation
shows us--is that there is not enough competition in the Greek economy since
taxes are fully incorporated into final prices.
You are pressing for the shut-down of
some state-controlled organizations and for the rationalization of others.
Let me be clear on this point: we
are not pressing for the shut-down of any state-controlled organization. We are
talking about reforms. Two major ones are coming in the areas of energy and
transportation. These are significant reforms and we are discussing various
options with the Greek government. It is still too early to get into the details
and, at the end of the day, the decision will be that of the Greek government.
Are you requesting the privatization of
40% of PPC? Many analysts raise doubt over the benefit of such a move. Well, discussions are ongoing but I can say
that it is not true that we are requesting the sale of a specific stake. The
objective on which we fully agree with the Greek government is clear: to
increase efficiency; to get more clean energy. It is too soon to get into the
details of all the possible options for achieving this goal. But again, everyone
should be very clear: we are not “imposing” something to be done in this
or that manner. That is simply not the way we work..
After the progress that you have seen, do
you think that Greece has avoided a credit default risk? It is encouraging that during the last weeks, even
the markets – where many had been speaking of such an event – are indicating
that this is not a viable option. This would not benefit Greece or its European
counterparts. Greece’s main problem is competitiveness and growth, not credit
default.
You have met with Mr. Samaras, who voted
against the memorandum. What is your impression? I do not want to talk about specific discussions or
contacts. I have met many people, both inside and outside the government. Right
from the start, I have said that this is a decisive moment for Greece. The
program is excellent. The government has shown impressive commitment and it
enjoys impressive international support. I would say that the global community
would expect there to be wider political support in Greece and, certainly, these
are not times for playing politics with the issues.
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Restructuring its debt is not
a solution for Greece, which must instead persuade markets it is serious about
reform, Poul Thomsen, deputy director and mission chief at the European
Department of the International Monetary Fund told CNBC: