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Russia on Thursday imposed a ban on grain exports
and staples such as bread, flour and beer are set to rise as the price of wheat
has risen to highs not seen since the 2007/08 global food crisis.
Vladimir Putin, Russian prime minister, announced
the ban on all the country’s grain exports on Thursday effective within 10
days, following the worst drought in at least 30 years, which has fanned
wildfires across the country. Russia is the world's third biggest grower of
wheat and the December delivery price rose 9.75 cents, or 7.9%, to close
at $8.1525 a bushel Thursday on the Chicago Board of Trade, after advancing by
the CBOT’s 60-cent limit to $8.155, the highest level since August 2008.
September futures rose the daily limit to $7.8575. The US wheat futures are up
more than 80% since mid-June, the sharpest rally in nearly 40 years. Meanwhile,
European wheat prices jumped more than 12% to €236 a tonne on record trading
volumes.
Shares of big food companies fell Thursday and
Russia's agriculture ministry’s most recent forecast of 2010 production is at
70m-75m tonnes, down from an estimated 85m tonnes a fortnight ago. Last year,
the harvest was 100m tonnes.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
said this week that the impact of unfavourable weather events on crops in recent
weeks has led the agency to cut its global wheat production forecast for 2010 to
651 million tonnes, from 676 million tonnes reported in June.
But despite production problems in some
leading exporting countries, the world wheat market remains far more balanced
than at the time of the world food crisis in 2007/08 and fears of a new global
food crisis are not justified at this point, FAO said.
A continuing, devastating drought afflicting
crops in the Russian Federation, coupled with anticipated lower outputs in
Kazakhstan and Ukraine have raised strong fears about the availability of world
wheat supply in the 2010/11 marketing season.
The FAO said turmoil in global wheat
markets, which has intensified in recent weeks, is evidence of the growing
dependence on the Black Sea region, an area renowned for erratic yields, as a
major supplier of wheat to world markets. In addition,
an expected production decline in Canada, another major producer and exporter of
wheat, has reinforced market worries.
This rapid increase in prices is prompting
concerns about a repeat of the crisis of 2007/08.
The FAO said after two consecutive years of
record crops, world inventories have been replenished sufficiently to cover the
current anticipated production shortfall. Even more importantly, stocks held by
the traditional wheat exporters, the main buffer against unexpected events,
remain ample.
Jacques Diouf, director-general of
the FAO said that global grain stocks were at
about 528m tonnes, up from a 30-year low
in 2007-08 of 427 tonnes.
Robert Rennie, currency
strategist at Westpac Bank, speaks to CNBC's Martin Soong, Karen Tso and Sri
Jegarajah about the impact of wheat price appreciation on the forex markets and
other soft commodities: