Source: CSO

The seasonally adjusted Irish Live Register total increased from 444,000 in June to 452,500 in July, an increase of 8,500 - - a new all-time record for the third straight month. 83% are Irish and citizens from non-EU countries on the Live Register is over 14,000. The biggest number of people on the Register from outside the EU are from Nigeria (approximately 3,000) followed by the US (approximately 700) and the Congo with over 600

The Central Statistics office (CSO) reported that in the year to July 2010 there was an unadjusted increase in the Live Register of 34,403 (+8.0%). This compares with an increase of 37,420 (+9.0%) in the year to June 2010.

January of 2009 represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise - - 26,700 additions in February, 20,000 in March; 15,800 in April; 13,500 in May; 11,400 in June; 10,500 in July; 5,400 in August and 600 in September. The total fell 3,000 in October; rose 900 in November and another 3,300 were added in December, to bring the end 2009 total to 426,700. The total fell by 500 in April 2010 and rose to a record 439,100 in May. June saw 5,800 added, to a then new all-time record in June: 444,900.

Other features include: There was an increase of 3,900 males and 4,600 females in the seasonally adjusted series in July.

The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in July 2010 was 1,700, which compares with a weekly increase of 1,275 in the previous month.

The CSO says the standardised unemployment rate in July was 13.7%. This compares with 12.9% in the first quarter of 2010, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

The CSO says the Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for January to March 2010, is 277,400 persons unemployed.

The CSO says in July there were 149,728 Jobseekers Benefit (JB) claimants on the Live Register, a monthly increase of 3,651 (+2.5%). Jobseekers Allowance (JA) applications increased by 9,053 (+3.2%) to 291,594 in the month, while other registrants increased by 1,238 (+5.1%) to 25,502.

In the year to July 2010 JB claims fell by 47,260 (-24.0%), while JA applications and other registrants both increased by 72,131 (+32.9%) and 9,532 (+59.7%) respectively.

In July there were 60,187 new registrants on the Live Register, which compares with 47,262 in the previous month. New registrants consisted of 29,643 JB claims (49.3%), 27,625 JA applications (45.9%) and 2,919 other registrants (4.8%). The CSO says it should be noted that the number of new registrants is not the same as the overall change in the number of people on the Live Register which is also effected by closed claims and the movement of people between schemes.

On average 12,037 new registrants joined the Live Register each week in July, comprising 6,285 males (52.2%) and 5,753 (47.8%) females. In comparison in January 2010 12,384 new registrants joined the Live Register each week, consisting of 7,871 males (63.6%) and 4,514 (36.4%) females.

There was an unadjusted monthly increase of 13,942 (+3.1%) on the Live Register in July, which was reflected in all of the eight regions. The largest percentage increase was in the West region (+3.9%), while the next largest increase was in the Mid-West region (+3.5%). The smallest percentage increase was in the South-East region (+2.5%).

The CSO says for the first time data by previously stated occupation is included in the Live Register release. This data is only available from October 2009 so the analysis at this point focuses on monthly and six monthly changes.

Craft and related (25.6%) was the largest occupational group on the Live Register in July, followed by Plant and machine operatives (15.4%) and Clerical and secretarial (10.8%). In January 2010 Craft and related (27.4%) was also the largest occupational group.

All occupational groups showed monthly Live Register increases in July. The largest percentage increase was in the Professional group (+12.3%), while the smallest percentage increase was in the Craft and related group (+0.1%).

In the six months to July 2010 all occupational groups showed Live Register increases with the largest percentage increase in Professional (+22.8%), while the next largest increases were in Clerical and secretarial (+15.6%) and Sales (+13.0%). The smallest percentage increase was in the Craft and related group (+0.1%).

There were increases in eight of the nine occupational groups in the six months to July 2010 for males on the Live Register. The largest percentage increase was in the Sales group (+12.0%), with the only decrease in the Managers and administrators group (-1.8%). For females there were increases in all occupational groups in the six months to July 2010. The largest percentage increase was in the Professional group (+38.0%) followed by the Other occupations group (+26.6%).

Davy chief economist, Rossa White, comments:

Claimants increase in recent months on residual employment losses

Live register up most since July 2009

• In absolute and percentage terms, the Live register increased the most in a year last month. The monthly rise of 8,500 or 1.9% brings the total claiming benefit in one form or another to 452,500.

• Since April, the number of claimants has started to rise again. In September 2009-April 2010, there was a period of stability when claimant fluctuated in the range of 426,900-435,700 (the total was 433,500 as of April). That period of respite in numbers was possibly helped by clearing a backlog of claimants from early 2009 that ultimately did not qualify for benefit. But that possibility does not fully explain the return of the upward trend in the last three months.

Residual job losses filtering through

• Clearly, residual job losses from the loss of output to the end of 2009 are still filtering through. It may also be the case that losses are arising from the indirect impact of reduced public expenditure on goods or ancillary private sector services. At the same time, construction and related activity is still in recession, so job losses in that sector will continue through 2011.

• That is highlighted by the increase in young males on the register. Males under 25 have accounted for two-thirds of the jump in total male claimants since April.

Estimated unemployment rate of 13.7%; peak below 14%

• The estimated unemployment rate is 13.7%. But it is only an estimate between the releases of the Quarterly National Household Survey (the Live Register does not measure unemployment: many of those claiming benefit are not unemployed). The labour force has been falling, so the final unemployment rate has consistently been revised down in recent quarters when official labour market data are produced (unemployment in Q1 2010 was 277,400).

• Moreover, the economy bottomed in Q1 (in GNP terms) so employment growth will resume before the end of 2010. As a result, the unemployment rate will probably peak below 14% by Q4.

NCB Stockbrokers economist, Brian Devine, comments:

• The live register increased by 8,500 in July, compared to an increase of 5,100 in June. This compares to an average increase of 2,283 in the prior 6 months of the year. The standardized unemployment rate rose form 13.4% in June to stand at 13.7% in July.

• The CSO has made an important change to the Live Register data. We had often complained that the data was stock data, with no info on flow. The CSO have now rectified this by providing monthly inflow and outflow data.

• Not only is the headline data not encouraging neither is the flow data. Although not seasonally adjusted (which likely biases the numbers upward) the inflow data reveal that the new signings on to the live register has risen to its highest level since January 2010. New signings on totaled 60,187 versus an outflow of 46,245 for a seasonally unadjusted increase of 13,942. The inflow in January was 64,765.

• The data for the last 3 months from the labour market have not been encouraging and show that despite a pop in GDP in Q1 2010 there has been little net feed through to the jobs market. The expectation has always been that there would not be an increase in net employment until 2011, but the current batch of figures are nonetheless discouraging after a period of relative stabilization in Feb-April.

Minister Éamon Ó Cuív comments:

"The biggest concern in many households around the country today is the loss of a job, where a household has gone from two incomes to one or from one to none," said Éamon Ó Cuív TD, Minister for Social Protection. "The Government is very concerned at the difficulties households are facing because of unemployment and the creation of new jobs is our top priority."

Commenting on the Live Register figures published by the CSO (5 August 2010), Ó Cuív said: "The Live Register has risen every July without exception over the last 20 years due to seasonal factors. It has now reached 452,500 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This increase in the Live Register during the summer will be reversed in the autumn. It is worth noting that within the register are over 64,000 people who have employment - either part-time or casual work. We want to improve our economy to get as many of those people as possible back to a 5-day week."

He added: "While the register figures are at a very high level, the figures rose more slowly in July than in June, despite the fact that the July total covered a five week period, while the June total covered four weeks. The month-on-month increase in the Live Register for July 2010 is also the lowest July increase since 2007. This shows that the Government's hard choices have brought stability to the economy over 2009 and 2010."

In relation to long-term unemployment, the Minister said: "Two out of every three unemployed people leave the Live Register within six months of signing-on, so much of the unemployment is not of a very long duration. Over 71,000 people came off the register and went in to employment in the 6 months from October 2009 to March 2010. We are very concerned to protect others from a drift into long-term unemployment which is one reason why the PRSI holiday initiative for employers is focused on creating new jobs for people who have been on the Live Register for 6 months or more."

Minister Ó Cuív also said: "A significant number of people who came on to the Live Register since the start of May are people who were in receipt of the Back to Education Allowance. Recipients of this allowance qualify for jobseeker's payments during the summer break and many of those are now on the register over the summer months.

"Across Government we are providing income supports for vulnerable people, more training and education places for those who need to re-skill and supporting innovation and diversification in areas ranging from technology to food production and outdoor activity tourism.
"The issue of enforced inactivity is a huge challenge for people when they are seeking work. One of the priorities in my Department is to place a particular focus on job activation or helping people get back into the workforce. The recently-passed Social Welfare (Misc Provisions) Act 2010 allows the transfer to my Department of schemes (including the Community Employment Scheme; Rural Social Scheme, the Community Services Programme and Job Initiative scheme). I am actively examining ways to use these schemes to create further opportunities to provide social employment."

The CSO data shows that over 83% of people on the Live Register are Irish.

In relation to other nationalities, since December 2009:

• There has been an increase of approximately 5% in the number of people from the UK on the Register bringing their total number to approximately 19,000.

• There was a marginal increase in the number of citizens from the EU-13, i.e. the EU before the new members joined, less Ireland and Britain to a total of 4,100.

• In relation to the new member states that joined the EU, there has been a decrease by about 2% with approximately 42,000 on the Live Register. This figure would seem to indicate that there is an outward migration of people from the new member states out of Ireland in recent months.

• The number of people from non-EU countries on the Live Register is over 14,000. The biggest number of people on the Register from outside the EU are from Nigeria (approximately 3,000) followed by the USA (approximately 700) and the Congo with over 600 on the Live Register.